1. Context of the Roadmap 2050 and WEO-2010 for Europe
EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers Gödöllő, Hungary
3 May 2011

2. Oil prices affect the global economy
World GDP ($2009, MER) growth 8%
120
Annual GDP
growth 6% 90
Recession 4% 60
Avg. IEA oil
import price in 2% 30
real $2009
(right axis) 0% - 2%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Oil price spikes have preceded each global recession since the early 1970’s

3. The context: A time of unprecedented uncertainty
The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over – but is the recovery sustainable?
Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price – what does this mean for future price movements ?
Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution – will it herald a golden era for gas?
Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances – but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented ?
Emerging economies will shape the global energy future – where will their policy decisions lead us ?
Tightening oil market plus political unrest in producing regions – how vulnerable is the market to even small disruptions?

4. EU-27 primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
European Union primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
2 000
Mtoe
Coal
Oil
1 600
Gas
1 200
Nuclear
Hydro
800
Biomass
Other renewables
400
Given this uncertain context, our New Policies Scenario takes account of the broad policy commitments that have already been announced, assuming their implementation.
It assumes, for example, cautious implementation of national pledges made in Copenhagen to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020, even if detailed polices to achieve these cuts may not have been implemented.
In the NPS, primary energy demand in Europe is expected to remain stagnant, but with a changing fuel mix which sees low-carbon fuels grow from 23% to 37%.
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2035
Total primary energy demand in the European Union remains stagnant, but the share of low-carbon fuels rises from 23% today to 37% in 2035

5. Low ambition to 2020 makes faster and deeper cuts necessary afterwards
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
WEO-2009:
7.0 34
Investment
Gt CO2
6.0 32
Emissions
(right axis)
5.0 30
Trillion dollars (2009)
4.0 28
WEO-2010:
Emissions
(right axis)
Investment
3.0 26
2.0 24
1.0 22 20
2010-
2015
2016-
2020
2021-
2025
2026-
2030
2031-
2035
Overall, this year’s 450 Scenario will cost $1 trillion more than last year’s by 2030,
and requires a total of $18 trillion in investment by 2035

6. EU-27 abatement in the 450 Scenario
European Union energy-related CO2 emission savings in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Gt
4.0
Efficiency
39%
Renewables
19%
Biofuels 3%
Nuclear
18%
CCS
21%
Share of cumulative abatement between
3.6
Current Policies Scenario
3.50 Gt
New Policies Scenario
3.2
2.78 Gt
2.8
2.4
2.0
450 Scenario
1.84 Gt
1.6
2008
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
In the 450 Scenario, efficiency measures account for about 40% of the necessary abatement in the European Union in

7. De-carbonisation of power generation in OECD Europe
A mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.

8. Combating climate change will reduce the oil burden faced by EU-27
Share of spending on oil imports in the European Union by scenario 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035 0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Billion dollars (2009)
Net oil import expenditure
Historical
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
Net oil import expenditure as share of GDP (right axis)
Historical
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
In the 450 Scenario, spending on oil imports in 2035 in the European Union is cut by around one-third compared with the New Polices Scenario, to less than 1% of GDP

9. The age of cheap energy is over
140
Current Policies Scenario
120
New Policies Scenario
100
450 Scenario
Dollars per barrel (2009) 80 60 40 20
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2035
Scenario
CO2 price
in 2035
($/ tCO2)
International oil price in 2035
($/bbl)
Effective oil price
Current Policies
42 in EU
135
152 in EU
New Policies
50 in OECD
113
134 in OECD
450 Scenario
120 in OECD 90
139 in OECD
…though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case