Risk analysis workshop Dec 2009

2 Objectives of the workshop: Impact Intervention  Discuss the function of hazard and risk analysis in contingency planning  Describe basic hazard and risk analysis concepts and tools  Identify risk and threats at country level

3 Function of hazard and risk analysis: Impact Intervention  To understand the potential emergency situations that a country or region may face in the future – especially those where your organization assistance may be required (according to the impact and the mandate of your organization)  To prioritize hazards for contingency planning

4 Hazard and Risk analysis Impact Intervention  Hazard analysis:  Analysis of the possible threats or sources of exposure to injury, harm or loss.  Each hazard is characterised by its location, intensity, frequency and probability  Risk analysis:  Analysis of the probability of occurrence and the magnitude/gravity (intensity, area) of the consequences of hazards  The gravity of the event is mainly determined by the scale of the impact on households, populations or livelihoods, and by how much the event is overwhelming existing structures and mechanisms to deal with it.

5 Risk analysis Impact Intervention  A risk is an event which might or might not occur resulting in harm or loss or danger. It is rated by likelihood and impact as shown: Impact Catastrophic Medium Moderate Likelihood Likely Major Almost Certain RISK

6 Hazard and risk analysis process: Impact Intervention  Collection and analysis of information:  Maps  Statistics (past hazards)  Reports and studies about past crisis impact  Lessons learnt  Risk and hazard matrix  Risk ranking  Risk mapping  Etc..

7 The Funnel Analogy for Risk Ranking: Impact Intervention Plan for a small number of key and representative contingencies and scenarios. Rule of thumb: No more than 5 Contingencies must be filtered: Most probable? Biggest impact?

8 Risk analysis process: Impact Intervention  How likely is the risk event to happen?  Measure the likelihood or probability with which the event will occur.  Using the best information available, planners should try to reach a consensus on probability and then assign the scenario a “probability level”.  What would be the impact or consequences of that event occurring?  Using the best information available, planners should try to assess the potential impact or consequences of the scenario, and assign an “impact level”.

9 Risk ranking matrix: Impact Intervention Gravity of event TrivialMinorSerious Likelihood HighExisting policyConsider scenariosDetailed planning process LowNo planningExisting policyConsider scenarios Almost nilNo planning Existing policy

10 Risk ranking matrix Impact Intervention CatastrophicMajorMedium ABC 3 Almost Certain AAABBBCCC 2 Likely AABBCC 1 Moderate ABC High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk IMPACT PROBABILITY Risk Point: HIGH RISK  By combining probability and impact planners reach an agreement on the risk levels and prioritize among the full range of risks considered.  After having agreed on the Risk Point planners Build Scenarios and Develop Planning Assumptions. Catastrophic MajorMedium C 3 Almost Certain 2 Likely 1 Moderate High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk IMPACT PROBABILITY

11 Practical exercice Impact Intervention Over the next 2 hours, each group will develop concise and clear hazard and risk analysis for the following area:  Mali