1. Comparative Emergency Management
Session 9 Slide Deck
Session 9

2. Session Objectives
Provide a Detailed Definition and Description of Risk in the Context of the Emergency Management Profession.
Provide a background on the various forms of consequences considered in a hazard risk assessment and analysis.
Explain how Likelihood and Consequence may both be represented as either qualitative or quantitative values.
Describe the Process by which Hazard Likelihood and Consequence are Analyzed.
Explain how Individual Risks are Evaluated in a Standardized Format.
Explore Examples of Risk Management in Practice
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3. Risk
Affects all people and all communities without exception, irrespective of geographic or socioeconomic limits
Every economic, social, policy, or political action or choice made by government and its constituents, and the businesses that operate in those communities, involves specific, often unknown, factors of risk
Risk is Individual and Collective
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4. Risk Equation
RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE
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5. Consequence Factors Deaths / Fatalities (Human) Injuries (Human)
Damages (cost, reported in currency, generally US dollars for international comparison)
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6. Direct Losses
“those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event, such as the deaths and damage caused by the throwing down of buildings in an earthquake” (Smith, 1992)
Examples: Fatalities, Injuries, Relocation Costs, Cleanup/Repair Costs
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7. Indirect Losses
May emerge much later and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event.
Examples: Income Loss, Mental Illness, Loss of Institutional Knowledge
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8. Tangible Losses Those for which a dollar value can be assigned.
Examples: Response Costs, Repair Costs, Inventory Loss
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9. Intangible Losses
Cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms.
Examples: Cultural Loss, Stress, Mental Illness, Aesthetic Loss
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10. Quantitative Analysis of Risk
Uses mathematical and/or statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk.
Gives a specific data point (dollars, probability, frequency, or number of injuries/fatalities, for example)
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11. Qualitative Analysis of Risk
Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize the likelihood and consequences of risk.
Allows each qualifier (word) to represent a range of possibilities.
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12. Additional Consequence Measures
Complexity or Difficulty Associated With Emergency Operations
Disruptions to Lives and Livelihoods (Social Disruption)
Disruption to economy
Environmental impact
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13. Depth of Analysis The amount of time and money available
The seriousness of the risk
The complexity of the risk
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14. Full Damage Consequence Analysis
Losses to Structures
Losses to Contents
Losses to Structure Use and Function and Cost of Displacement
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15. Qualitative Example 1
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16. Qualitative Example 2
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17. Qualitative Example 3
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18. Risk Matrix
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19. FEMA Risk Matrix Values
Class A. High-risk condition with highest priority for mitigation and contingency planning (immediate action)
Class B. Moderate to high risk condition with risk addressed by mitigation and contingency planning (prompt action)
Class C. Risk condition sufficiently high to give consideration for further mitigation and planning (planned action)
Class D. Low-risk condition with additional mitigation contingency planning (advisory in nature)
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20. Risk Registers Name of Risk Qualitative Likelihood Value
Qualitative Consequence Value
Level of risk
Priority Rating
Additional Information as needed
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21. SMAUG Methodology Seriousness Manageability Acceptability Urgency
Growth
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22. Australia / New Zealand
Communicate and Consult
Establish the Context
Objectives
Stakeholders
Criteria
Define key elements
Identify the Risks
Hazards analysis
Vulnerability analysis
Analyze the Risks
Review controls
Likelihoods
Consequences
Level of risk
Evaluate the Risks
Evaluate risks
Rank Risks
Treat the Risks
Identify options
Select the best responses
Develop risk treatment plan
Implement
Monitor and Review
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