1. Risk Assessment Ali Ardalan MD, PhD Assistant Professor
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Institute of Public Health Research
Health Emergency & Disaster Department (HE&DD)
Risk Assessment
Ali Ardalan MD, PhD
Assistant Professor

2. Risk Assessment Risk identification Hazard assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Risk analysis
Risk evaluation

3. Hazard Assessment
Is concerned with the properties of the hazards or threats
To understand the nature and behavior of hazards we need to identify:

4. Hazard Assessment Tools
Hazard Matrix:
Helps us to systematize information regarding the properties of the community’s hazard exposure
Hazard Map:
Drawn to locate the probable area covered by a hazard’s impact and the elements at risk.
Historical Profile or time line:
Can make us understand how hazards have changed over time; which hazards have happened in the past; or the start of particular hazard occurrence.
Seasonal Calendar:
visualizes the time, frequency and duration of common hazards.

5. Hazard Matrix Earthquake Flood Fire Epidemic .... Duration When
Frequency
Speed of onset
Forewarning
Warning sign
Force
Hazard Type
Earthquake
Flood
Fire
Epidemic
....

6. Flood magnitude= Log (Duration*Severity*Affected area)
In mathematics, the logarithm of a number to a given base is the power or exponent to which the base must be raised in order to produce the number.
For example, the logarithm of 1000 to the base 10 is 3, because 10 raised to the power of 3 is 1000; the base 2 logarithm of 32 is 5 because 2 to the power 5 is 32.
The logarithm of x to the base b is written logb(x) or, if the base is implicit, as log(x). So, for a number x, a base b and an exponent y,
An important feature of logarithms is that they reduce multiplication to addition, by the formula:

20. Some Points on Hazard Assessment
Secondary hazards
Consider the various intensities
Not forget to look at possible disaster threats that are new for the community and are likely to happen
The rare the occurrence, the less historical information

21. Vulnerability Assessment
Process of estimating the susceptibility of ‘elements at risk’ to various hazards and analyzing the causes behind their vulnerability.
VA into account the below factors:
Structural
Non-structural
Process/Functional
Physical
Geographical
Economic
Social
Political
Psychological

22. Vulnerability Assessment Tools
Vulnerability Maps:
Helps in visualizing the ‘elements at risk’
Transect walk:
Helps to get a better understanding of the community map and affords opportunity to ask more questions on physical/material vulnerability
Seasonal calendar
Gives insight on periods of stress, diseases, hunger, debt, etc.
Livelihood analysis:
Gives a picture of the varying effects of hazards on different households and groups

23. Vulnerability Assessment Tools
Venn diagram:
Shows the state of coordination among organizations and government agencies or leadership patterns
Community Drama:
Enables people to express what happens during disasters and why
Problem tree and Ranking:
Shows linkage of vulnerabilities and enables the community to express the priority vulnerabilities to address.

24. Vulnerability Indicator Coordination / emergency plan
Vulnerability Matrix
Hazard Scenario 1
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
Vulnerability Indicator
Structural
Non-structural
Land use planning
Coordination / emergency plan
Fire extingusher

25. Vulnerability Indicator
Vulnerability Matrix
Hazard Scenario 1
Score
Very High
(5)
High
(4)
Medium
(3)
Low
(2)
Very Low
(1)
Vulnerability Indicator
Indicator 1
Indicator 2
Indicator 3
Indicator 4
Total
Develop the relevant vulnerability indicators for each specific hazard

26. Vulnerability Indicator
Vulnerability Matrix
Hazard Scenario 1
Score
Very High
(5)
High
(4)
Medium
(3)
Low
(2)
Very Low
(1)
Vulnerability Indicator
Indicator 1
Indicator 2
Indicator 3
Indicator 4
Total
(#Indicators * Max Score Level) / #Categories
Ex: (4 * 5) / 5 = 4 4 8 12 16 20

27. Vulnerability Indicator
Vulnerability Matrix
Hazard Scenario 1
Score
Very High
(5)
High
(4)
Medium
(3)
Low
(2)
Very Low
(1)
Vulnerability Indicator 3 *
Indicator 1 2
Indicator 2 5
Indicator 3 4
Indicator 4 14 14 4 8 12 16 20
Vulnerability level: High

28. Risk Analysis
To understand the potential impact of various hazard events
Development of risk scenarios based upon information about:
Hazards (Frequency & Intensity)
Elements-at-risk
A hazard can impact many elements at risk in different manners

29. Risk Matrix Risk Scenario 1
Hazard Probability
Damage Potential
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low LR
VLR MR HR
VHR

30. Hospital Risk Assessment for Earthquake, Scenario 1
Damage Potential
Hazard Probability
Hospital H M H1 VH H2 H3 L H4

32. Risk Evaluation
Purpose: To make decisions about what strategies should be followed for the reduction of various disaster risks
The decision about risk management may include:
Whether a risk needs treatment
Whether an activity should be undertaken
Priorities for treatment
Cost-benefit analysis of various options

33. e-mail: aardalan@gmail.com Office/Fax: +98-21- 88991108
Contact info:
Office/Fax:
Mobile:
Ali Ardalan MD PhD
Assistant Professor, Director
Health Emergency & Disaster Department (HE&DD)
Institute of Public Health Research
Tehran University of Medical Sciences