1. DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS
MODULE 2 – SESSION 3
DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS
This session is one of the most important elements of the contingency planning process. Note that the timing of this session will vary considerably depending on whether you are using the session to explain the process, or to actually facilitate a group in doing the process (which will take considerably more time including the drafting and vetting of outputs.

2. Participants are able to develop scenarios.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Participants are able to develop scenarios.
By end of this session (if used for a training session about contingency planning) , you will be familiar with different approaches to scenario development. You will be able to list the steps to scenario development and develop scenarios based on your own context.
If you are using this material to assist in the actual scenario development process, your goal will be to have a developed scenario by the end of this working session.

3. BEST, MOST LIKELY, AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS
DROUGHT
FLOOD
EARTHQUAKE
BEST
No drought
Seasonal floods
4.5 Richter scale & minor damage
MOST LIKELY
Moderate drought affecting one part of country
Major flood affecting 100,000 people
6.5 Richter scale & major damage in rural areas
WORST
Severe drought affecting large areas of country
Extreme flooding affecting 1,000,000
8.0 Richter scale; epicenter in major city & catastrophic damage
Explain that we will use the best, most likely & worst case scenario method to develop scenarios. Share the above example to illustrate the usage of this method.

4. How many people are affected?
QUESTIONS TO ANSWER
What is going to happen?
What are you going to do?
How many people are affected?
What is the damage and the worst affected scenario?
What are the assumptions?
What are the triggering factors?
Scenario development is the basis of a contingency plan.
In a nutshell, these questions need to be answered when developing scenario:
What is going to happen?
What are you going to do?
Number of affected, worst affected, damage
What are the assumptions?
What are the triggering factors?
Refer participants to the scenario development template in the Contingency Planning Guide, Chapter 2, heading 7. “Building Scenarios”.

5. PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS EXAMPLES
Humanitarian assistance may be needed to assist the Government in protection and providing relief assistance to 50,000 – 70,000 internally displaced people.
The potential floods could disrupt livelihoods of 20,000 communities.
Should there be spoiling of wells during the cyclone, the affected communities would not have access to clean and safe water.
Due to insecurity and limited transportation, communities may have not access to markets to buy their supplies in a timely manner.
Example planning assumptions are shown to help participants better understand what planning assumptions are.

6. STEPS TO DEVELOPING SCENARIOS
Describe the current situation & baseline info
Define scenarios
Select scenarios for further development
State assumptions for scenarios
Identify triggering events for each scenario
Prepare the group to start developing scenarios. Provide the steps for developing scenario. Explain that the process was already started while identifying & prioritizing the potential hazards using the Risk Matrix.
Under step 1 the points to be considered are:
No. of people affected/location/status/conditions
Description of current NS operations
Overview of NS capacity
Other capacities (Federation, regional or global response tools) make link to earlier session
Under Step 2:
state which variables could affect the country (ex. security, conflict, political, economics, etc)
provide a general scale to rank the situations
Under Step 3:
Eliminate those with lowest risk
eliminate those that have no bearing or implications on NS/Federation
Under Step 4: Clearly state assumptions for the remaining scenario(s) to be developed further
Under Step 5: Identify possible triggering events for each scenario that would have consequences on your preparation or operational plans