14-15 June 2006 Parliament House Canberra Trends in energy for transport — What are the policy implications? Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions BTRE Transport Colloquium Transport Reform, Competition and the Future David Cosgrove

Transport Energy Trends – Underlying effects Population increases and demographic effects Income increases and other economic impacts Technical innovation or changing technology Public preferences and behavioural responses Costs of travel (fuel prices, fares, vehicle prices, congestion etc) Increasing personal mobility (combined with limited time for daily travel)

Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks Steadily increasing transport energy use

Relationship between per capita travel and per capita income levels

Modal share of urban transport Source: BTRE (2005, 2003), BTRE estimates. (LCVs = light commercial vehicles)

Base case projections Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates

Total Australian Passenger task Base case projections Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates – for domestic transport. (Other = mostly LCVs + motorcycles)

Total domestic freight task Source: BTRE (2005, 2006), BTRE estimates Base case projections

Total motor vehicle travel Source: BTRE (2005, 2003), BTRE estimates

Trends in engine efficiency – New cars Sources: BTRE (2002b), US EPA

Trend in engine power – new light vehicles Source: BTRE (2002b)

Trend in average fuel consumption – New sales Source: BTRE (2002b) – note: all light vehicles, including 4WDs and LCVs

Energy use by Australian domestic transport Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: includes coal used for electric rail generation

Liquid fuel use – Domestic and International transport Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: does not include military fuel use

Projected trend in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – gigagrams of CO 2 equivalent emissions Total transport sector emissions for Australia – including domestic civil transport, fuel sales to international carriers and the military, energy used in fuel refining or conversion, and energy used in vehicle manufacture and transport services

Trends in noxious urban air emissions Source: BTRE (2003), BTRE estimates NOx PM HC CO

Transport energy trends by mode Source: BTRE (2005, 1996) – note: includes Australian fuel sales to international transport Base case projections

David Cosgrove Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions Trends in energy for transport — What are the policy implications?

References and further reading:  BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107  BTRE (2002b), Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, Information Sheet 18  BTRE (2005), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To 2020, Report to AGO, August 2005,  BTRE (2006), Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, Report 112  BTE (2000), Urban Congestion - The Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Information Sheet 16  BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94  Cosgrove, D. & Mitchell, D. (2001), ‘ Standardised Time-series for the Australian Road Transport Task’, Proceedings of the 24th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Hobart 17 April 2001, Tasmanian Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources  Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions From Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, June 2003; study conducted for the Department of Environment and Heritage, BTRE 2003;  Cosgrove, D.C. & Gargett, D. (1992), ‘The Australian Domestic Transport Task’, Papers of the Australasian Transport Research Forum, vol. 17, part 1