U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School The U.S. Army’s Special Operations Center of Excellence The overall classification of this brief is: UNCLASSFIED Briefer: Type of Brief: Date: Version: NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Iran’s Struggle for Enrichment Briefing Team: David Butler, Mike Ellis, Chris Mauro, Thomas Hauer, Urbina Ulloa Briefing Type: Informational Date: 18 OCT 2013 Version: 1

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Purpose: Present an information brief on Iran’s pursuit nuclear weapons through enrichment of uranium based off PMESIIPT analysis of the issue Agenda –Thesis / Proposal –Historical Background –Government / Social Structure –Operational Variables –Regional Impact –Significance –Questions and Comments Purpose and Agenda

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons through enrichment of uranium is a direct threat to Israel and regional stability as well as being in conflict with US National Security objective’s of counter-proliferation of nuclear arms and security of nuclear weapons. Thesis

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Iranian enrichment of uranium , research reactor supplied by the United States. - Under the Shah - Iranian Revolution and Iran/Iraq War - Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s presidency , exiled Iranian resistance group Historical Background

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF IAEA Findings - May September July Other Findings Historical Background

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Sanctions against Iran , Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act - UN Sanctions - EU Sanctions Historical Background

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Government Supreme Leader Executive Branch President Judicial Branch Legislative Branch Parliament Guardian Council Expediency Council Assembly of Experts

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Leadership Israel shouldn’t exist Iran has the right to enrich Ayatollah Iran should negotiate to have sanctions lifted The economy will be saved once they are President

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Over 60% of Iranian people are under the age of 30 People power movement Unemployment Independence Social

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Currently exchanging electricity with Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Turkey. Largest exporter and importer of electricity in the Middle East and is also exchanging power throughout the region Aiming to export 1 Billion MWh to neighboring countries A total of 92,451 GWh electricity volume is being generated 18,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment in operation but they are of the older IR1 type, IR2 amount is unknown. Surplus of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Nuclear Power Program

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF 3 Uranium Mines 3 Research Reactors 2 Enrichment Plants 1 Uranium Conversion Plant 1 Heavy Water Plant 1 Nuclear Power Station 1 Military Site Facilities

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Facility Locations

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Suspected nuclear weapons development facility Iran’s leading munitions center Develops rockets and high explosives Parchin Military Site Munitions Site Possible Nuclear Site

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Hexafluoride gas – used in gas centrifuges Uranium Oxide – used to fuel reactors Metal – used in the cores of nuclear bombs Isfahan – Uranium Conversion Plant Munitions Site Possible Nuclear Site Plant

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Heavily fortified Construction was kept secret until 2009 Initial intention claim was for HEU at 5% Qom aka Fordow – Uranium Enrichment Plant

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Main concern of UN Security Council Uranium Enrichment up to 20% (19.75 %)  20% or more required for inefficient nuclear weapons  85% commonly used for effective nuclear weapons  5% Commonly used in nuclear power production 1,008 advanced IR2m centrifuges Natanz – Uranium Enrichment Plant Plant

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Area of Interest

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Iran looks to use their surplus of Uranium as a bargaining tool in nuclear talks Create WMD’s Export to foreign nations for trade Medical use of HEU Leverage against Israel Leverage against Sanctions Possible use

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Israel –Israel will consider pre-emptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear installations. –Israel could negotiate with Teheran as has in the past. –Increase security cooperation with the United States –Exposing its arsenal Middle East/International Impact

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF The Gulf Countries –Iran is suspect in the greater Middle East and the GCC because of its efforts to export its Islamic revolution and its support for international terrorism, by offering financial, logistic, and even military support to radicalized Islamic groups –Adding long range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads would seem to give a militant Iran a very powerful edge if it chose to exercise its perceived authority to the fullest. –Gulf countries could acquire nuclear weapons Middle East/International Impact

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Syria – Syria will support Iran in its nuclear ambition. Moreover if Israel were to attack Iran, Syria could attack Israel with WMD missiles. Syria will continue to support the Hezbollah and will provide for all its needs. With Syria and the Hezbollah, Iran has the ability to deter Israel from attacking her nuclear facilities. How will the Middle East be effected?

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Jordan –For Jordan the situation is very complex. Jordan is home to lot of Palestinian refugees. This caused Jordan to remain neutral to the Iranian threat. Like Egypt, Jordan will add its voice to those Arab countries calling for region to be nuclear free zone, especially to Israel. How will the Middle East be effected?

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF What is US Nat’l Security Strategy on this issue? #2 on the list: WMD and Non-proliferation of nuclear weapons –IAW with Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) “Present a clear choice to Iran…” –Follow obligations or face consequences Regional Stability: Peace, Security and Opportunity –Russia –Israel –Iran: NPT, support for terrorism, and threats against neighbors, Russia Significance

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF How to make this happen: –Political pressure from US, Russian, UN and regional leaders –Military option from US, Israel, and possibly UN –IAEA inspections and compliance Disclose all activity and locations –Economic Sanctions –Social Pressure from within Iran Op-ed in newspapers and social networks –Timeline-does President Rouhani have one? Significance

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Thesis: Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons through enrichment of uranium is a direct threat to Israel and regional stability as well as being in conflict with US National Security Strategy objective's of counter-proliferation of nuclear arms and security of nuclear weapons. Proposal: Iran’s pursuit of enriched uranium needs to be internationally monitored (IAEA) and controls set in place to ensure its use is limited to peaceful means without the ability to further enrich to a weapon(s)-usable grade Thesis and proposal

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF 1: WSJ.com - Wall Street Journal print editions 2: economist.com - The Economist print editions 3: globalissues.com 4: worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview 5: heritage.org/index/country/iran 6: White House. (2010). National security strategy. Retrieved from 7: Venter, A. J. (2005). Iran's Nuclear Option Tehran's Quest for the Atom Bomb. Havertown: Casemate. 8: Blank, S. J. (2011). Arns Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Rest Policy. SSI US Army War College. 9: Director General. "International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)IAEA Home." International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). IAEA, 12 Sept Web. 06 Oct : 11: Sources

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Questions Comments