1. Evolution and Resilience of the Nuclear Nonproliferation System Arian L. Pregenzer November 3, 2013

2. The goal of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. Nuclear Weapon States (NWS)Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) Commit not to assist other states to acquire or develop nuclear weapons Commit not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons and to implement IAEA safeguards All agree not to export nuclear equipment or material to NNWS except under safeguards All agree to facilitate exchange of peaceful nuclear technology All agree to work towards future nuclear (and total) disarmament 2

3. The nuclear nonproliferation system includes a range of multilateral and bilateral measures 3 NPT Export Control (sensitive nuclear technology) Detection and interdiction Capacity building Technical assistance Material and weapon security International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards Limitations on highly enriched uranium and plutonium Border and port security Diplomacy Security Alliances Sanctions Arms Control

4. Nonproliferation system has been largely successful. But what will happen next? 4 ?

5. Thresholds in the nonproliferation system? 5 Capability Demand Region to Avoid 19452030?

6. Evolution of Nonproliferation Strategies 1945 - 1990 6 Unilateral military strikes International Export Controls Security Alliances NPT / IAEA Safeguards Diplomacy Classify information Hiroshima/Nagasaki Soviet NW Tests Indian NW Test

7. Evolution of Nonproliferation Strategies 1991 - 2001 7 IAEA Additional Protocol Regional Security Cooperative Threat Reduction Unilateral military strikes International Export Controls Security Alliances NPT / IAEA Safeguards Diplomacy Classify information Hiroshima/Nagasaki Soviet NW Tests Indian NW Test End of USSR

8. Innovative Strategies of the 1990s Cooperative Threat Reduction 8 Warhead Safety and Security Protection of Nuclear Material and Facilities Dismantlement of Russian Submarine Disassembly of Missile Launch Tube

9. Innovative Strategies of the 1990s The Cooperative Monitoring Center 9 Nuclear Safety Data Exchange (Northeast Asia) Meteorological Data Gathering and Exchange (Israel/PA) Cooperative Aerial Monitoring Cooperative Border Crossings Naval Confidence Building Measures Cooperative Disease Surveillance (Middle East) India / Pakistan

10. Evolution of Nonproliferation Strategies Post 2001 10 Nuclear Reductions Military Strikes Missile Defense Detection / Interdiction (PSI) IAEA Additional Protocol Capacity Building Regional Security Cooperative Threat Reduction Unilateral military strikes International Export Controls Security Alliances NPT / IAEA Safeguards Diplomacy Classify information Hiroshima/Nagasaki Soviet NW Tests Indian NW Test End of USSR September 11

11. Innovative Strategies of the 2000s The Proliferation Security Initiative: Goals Stop trafficking WMD-related materials and technologies Framework No formal secretariat Coalition of “willing” Methods Exchange of information and best practices Exercises Participation 10 states (2003) > 100 states (2013) 11 41-country exercise off Japan in 2007

12. Can concepts of systems resilience be applied to the nonproliferation system? Resilience is a measure of a system’s ability to absorb continuous and unpredictable change and maintain its vital functions Strategies for resilience will emphasize general capabilities to deal with unknown hazards Resilient systems constantly evolve to maintain function in a changing environment Resilient systems are functionally diverse 12

13. The Adaptive Cycle and Systems Resilience 13 growth conservation growth release A resilient system continues to perform its vital functions as it moves through the adaptive cycle over time. reorganization

14. Where is the nonproliferation system? 14 Arms Control Military Strikes Missile Defense Capacity Building Detection / Interdiction (PSI) Cooperative Threat Reduction ??? IAEA Additional protocol Export Controls Military Strikes Security Alliances NPT / IAEA Safeguards Diplomacy Information classification

15. What can be done to enhance resilience of the nonproliferation system? Acknowledge that not all determined states can be prevented from developing nuclear weapons Fewer intellectual and economic resources to “prevention” Emphasize general international capabilities that increase overall security and can respond to “point failures” Nuclear emergency / incident response Missile defense Standards for nuclear weapons security Apply systems thinking more rigorously to nonproliferation Clarify processes Understand feedbacks 15

16. Systems Analysis: Understanding Feedbacks Modeling the Nonproliferation System Benefits  Clarify thinking about system processes  Account for feedbacks and unintended consequences Cautions  Unknown interactions  Difficult to quantify See “A Systems Approach to Assessing Nonproliferation Strategies,” A. Pregenzer, S. DeLand, R. Glass, W. Beyeler, A. Ames, A. Williams; http://www.sandia.gov/CasosEngineering/docs/Nonproliferation%20Model%20INMM%205-30- 11_SAND2011_3768C.pdf

17. Final Thought: Nonproliferation system interacts with other systems at larger and smaller scales. 17 Country Space Globe Year Time Century Nonproliferation System Global Order / International Security State NW Programs