The 13th Meeting of the Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis Chinese Taipei, March 2002 Improving Oil Market Transparency The Oil Data Initiative Jean-Yves Garnier Head, Energy Statistics Division International Energy Agency

Why a need for better oil statistics? Evolution of oil prices ($/bl) Blame on statistics?

The Starting Point for Discussing Transparency International Meeting on Oil Statistics IEA, November 2000 Organisations can solve part of the problems but need involvement from countries Riyadh November th International Energy Forum Riyadh November th International Energy Forum The Oil Data Transparency Initiative Technical Discussion Political Call

The Oil Data Transparency Initiative A Few Milestones Paris13-14 November 2000 Bangkok 2-3 April 2001 Vienna10 May 2001 Joint Oil Data ExerciseJune-November 2001 Vienna24 September 2001 Madrid14-15 July 2000 Riyadh November (+ countries)

The Oil Data Transparency Initiative A Few Milestones Paris13-14 November 2000 Bangkok 2-3 April 2001 Vienna10 May 2001 Vienna24 September 2001 Madrid14-15 July 2000 Riyadh November (+ countries) Joint Oil Data Exercise June-November 2001

Country:Month: Unit: JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE The Exercise: As Simple as Possible Simple Definitions Month -1 and Month -2 Choice of units left to organisations A Simple Format (42 data points) 6 Months Starting in June 6 Months Starting in June

The Joint Oil Data Exercise June-November 2001 Organisation A Organisation A Organisation B Organisation B Organisation C Organisation C Country A1 Country A2 Country A3 Country B1 Country B2 Country B3 Country C1 Country C2 Country C3 Interim Meeting Objectives How many countries would be able to complete the table How many countries would be able to submit M-1 data What are the main difficulties encountered What solutions could be proposedObjectives How many countries would be able to complete the table How many countries would be able to submit M-1 data What are the main difficulties encountered What solutions could be proposed

Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

APEC15/21 Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

Malaysia Singapore Indonesia APEC15/21 Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

APEC OECD 15/21 29/30 Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

APEC OECD 15/21 29/30 Netherlands Australia Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

APEC OECD OLADE 15/21 29/30 10/26 Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

Venezuela Caribbean APEC OECD OLADE 15/21 29/30 10/26 Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

APEC OECD OLADE OPEC 15/21 29/30 10/26 5/11 Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

Indonesia Algeria Iraq Kuwait UAE Venezuela APEC OECD OLADE OPEC 15/21 29/30 10/26 5/11 Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

APEC OECD OLADE OPEC UN 15/21 29/30 10/26 5/11 6/9 55 countries but a need to involve the key remaining ones Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Participation: High, Except from some Producers

Country:Month: Unit: JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Completeness: Depends on Flows and Countries

Unit: Country:Month: JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE No major problems No major problems

Unit: JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE Country:Month: Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Completeness: Depends on Flows and Countries No major problems Delays No major problems Delays

Unit: Country:Month: Preliminary Results of the Exercise: Completeness: Depends on Flows and Countries A need to have all flows reported JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE No major problems Delays Confidentiality No major problems Delays Confidentiality

A Need to Increase Commitment From a Few Additional Countries Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Algeria Iraq Kuwait UAE Venezuela Caribbean APEC OECD OLADE OPEC UN China South Africa Netherlands

The Way Forward (What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh) 8th IEF, Osaka Sep th IEF, Osaka Sep 2002 Riyadh Nov 2001 Riyadh Nov 2001 Extra Countries Extra Countries 93%94% 70%83% Production Consumption

The Way Forward (What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh) 8th IEF, Osaka Sep th IEF, Osaka Sep 2002 Riyadh Nov 2001 Riyadh Nov 2001 More complete data (stocks) More complete data (stocks) Extra Countries Extra Countries Quality Checks Quality Checks A few global checks Supply vs. Demand Import vs. Export A few global checks Supply vs. Demand Import vs. Export

The Way Forward (What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh) 8th IEF, Osaka Sep th IEF, Osaka Sep 2002 Riyadh Nov 2001 Riyadh Nov 2001 More complete data (stocks) More complete data (stocks) Extra Countries Extra Countries Quality Checks Quality Checks Mexico May 2002 Industry “Final” Quality Checks “Final” Quality Checks “Final” Product

Luxembourg Meeting 25 January 2002 Progress since Riyadh Guidelines on data quality assessment Joint “publicity” paper Joint Website Launching of a discussion for further harmonisation of definitions The Mexico Meeting

Mexico, A Major Step Towards the Summit May 2002 Day 1 Thursday 23 Day 1 Thursday 23 Day 2 Friday 24 Day 2 Friday 24 Day 3 Saturday 25 Day 3 Saturday 25 Lunch Progress and problems since Riyadh Opening From Mexico to Osaka and beyond How did it go for member countries? Can solution be found to the remaining issues? What is Industry’s role in data transparency? Closing

Final Product: Some Prototypes

Oct Nov Sep Aug July June Transparency: A 4-Dimension Issue Transparency will only exist if: flows All flows are reported products All products are reported countries All countries participate If all submissions are timely

A Few Comments to Conclude (1/2) It takes time to translate a call into action and results. Concrete example of producer-consumer dialogue. A lot has been done over the last 11 months: commitment, co-operation, work at national and organisational levels, meetings. A lot remains to be done before the 8th International Energy Forum in September in Osaka.

A Few Comments to Conclude (2/2) Sustainability of the exercise after Osaka. Work and participation of APEC (APERC, EDMC, APEC Member Economies) to be commended. Hope that many Member Economies and oil companies from APEC will be able to participate in Mexico. Thank you. What would be presented in Osaka? A final product a call upon non-participating countries