Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 (Further) (Possible) ICP M&M Contribution to Integrated Assessment Maximilian Posch Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Jaap Slootweg Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) ICP Modelling & Mapping Bilthoven, Netherlands

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Integrated Assessment (IA) under the LRTAP Convention - Generally carried out under TFIAM - Done with the GAINS model by CIAM … mostly minimizing costs for an accepted reduction target for an agreed set of environmental and human health indicators - Making use of (the linearized version of) the EMEP atmospheric chemistry and transport model(s) New (and ‘welcomed’ by WGSR and EB): - Ex-post analyses by the WGE-ICPs of (selected) scenarios (in collaboration with EMEP and CIAM)

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Scheme for CCE [ex-post] analyses (see SR2008): Modelling: SMB, Dynamic Modelling, … Empirical CLs, Dose-Response Functions, …

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Steps in analysis (with emphasis on ICP M&M) 1. Receive scenario from CIAM (in form of country emissions of S, NO x, NH 3, …) 2. Obtain deposition fields by … a) using the linearised EMEP model b) convincing EMEP to run the Unified Model for the given scenario 3. Analyse: a) compute various indicators b) compare with existing (reference) scenarios c) summarise and display results [in familiar and novel ways] 4. Report back to TFIAM/WGSR

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Data and models available - Official 2008 Critical Loads data base (modelled & empirical; but also earlier versions) - European Background CL data base (EU-DB): To fill in gaps, but also for ‘experimental’ work - NFC dynamic modelling output: 7 variables for 14 scenarios in 9 reference years - VSD modelling results (using EU-DB): To fill gaps and for experiments/investigations … and … - Linearised version of the EMEP model: for annual average S, NO x and NH 3 deposition (only) - Other EMEP model output; e.g. concentration fields

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of acidity CLs Other forms: a) Maps of exceeded area b) Country Tables of exceedances/ exceeded area c) CDFs d) …… Note: Also %area exceeded indicated!

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of (computed) nutrient N CLs Other forms: see above … What’s presented so far, can also be computed/shown by CIAM (albeit less beautiful!)

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of empirical CLs (for nutrient N) Grassland Scrubs Forests 1990 CLE 2020 MFR 2020 [Fig6-1]

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Comparing the exceedance of empirical and computed CLnutN’s (‘ensemble assessment’) In every EMEP grid cell compare % ecosystem area exceeded for both CL-types and assign ‘likelihood’ of exceedance according to Fig, using IPCC lingo … % area exceeded of computed CLnutN % area exceeded of empirical CLnutN p 1 *p 2 =const

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Mapping Ensemble Assessment Prerequisite: Data for both available …..

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Examples: Dynamic Modelling: Damage and Recovery Delay Times (DDT and RDT)

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Dynamic Modelling: Target Loads & Delay Times

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Dynamic Modelling Data Dynamic Modelling output obtained/produced for: 7 variables: [Al], [Bc], pH, [ANC], bsat, C:N ratio, [N] … in the following 9 years: History: 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 … once; and Future: 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2100 … for 14 deposition scenarios [  7 x (4 + 5 x 14) = 518 values per site] Results for arbitrary scenario obtained by interpolation!

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Target Loads of N acidity in 2050 CL max (N)TL max (N) Black dot in square: also infeasible TLs!

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June % area exceeded (AAE > 0) 49 % area violated (AAE >0) Example: Non-achievement (‘violation’) of nutrient-N Target Loads Exceedance of CLnutN Violation of 2050-TLnutn

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of Critical Levels 2005/06: Update of critical level for NH 3 concentration: - Lichens & bryophytes: 1 µg NH 3 /m 3 - Herbaceous plants: 3±1 µg NH 3 /m 3 (was 8) Reference: Cape JN, Van der Eerden LJ, Sheppard LJ, Leith ID, Sutton MA (2009) Evidence for changing the critical level for ammonia. Environmental Pollution 157:

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 AAEnut, 2010 NOx = 0 AAEnut, 2010 NH3 = 0 Example: Exceedance of CLnutN with zero NO x and NH 3 emissions Caveats!

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Consequences of ‘equitable’ emission reductions Sorted S and N emission densities (tS|N/km 2 ): S total N NOx-N NH3-N MT MT MT MT BG NL LU NL BA LU NL BE MD BE BE LU PL DK GB DK BE DE DK IE MK GB IT DE HU IT DE CH Red = S Blue = NO x -N Green = NH 3 -N Black = Total N

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 For every max. emission density of NO x and NH 3 the % European ecosystem area exceeded can be seen and the corresponding % European emission reductions Example: Equitable emission reductions and nutrient N exceeded ecosystem area Green horizontal lines: 10%, 25% (top), 50% (solid), 75%, 90% (bottom) European NH 3 emission reduction. Black vertical lines: same for Eurpean NO x emission reductions (right to left).

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Equitable emission reductions and acidity CL exceeded ecosystem area For every max. emission density of N and S the % European ecosystem area exceeded can be seen and the corresponding % European emission reductions Red horizontal lines: 10%, 25% (top), 50% (solid), 75%, 90% (bottom) European S emission reduction. Black vertical lines: same for European N emission Reductions (right to left)

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 S: NOx: NH3: MT 94.8% MT 76.7% MT 84.5% BG 78.2% NL 73.1% NL 75.0% BA 76.1% BE 59.6% LU 71.7% MD 44.4% LU 54.3% BE 67.3% PL 42.9% DK 46.3% DK 45.8% BE 40.6% IE 43.3% DE 40.6% MK 40.5% DE 39.9% GB 40.1% HU 32.9% CH 30.3% IT 32.6% RO 31.8% IT 24.5% IE 25.7% CS 29.3% FR 21.4% CH 17.5% TR 12.3% MD 20.3% FR 14.7% GB 20.0% MD 12.6% RO 12.1% PL 0.7% BG 5.3% Countries not in column  no reduction Example (cont’d): Reducing European emissions by 50% (S and N) in this equitable way would require the following reductions in individual countries: Remarks: (a) Not effects-based! (b) Interesting, but probably difficult to agree upon … (c) Linearised EMEP model stretched to limit! (d) Similar examples easy to investigate

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Further Examples: e.g. - Influence of climate change on Critical Loads (and dynamic model results) - Influence of land cover changes on CLs - More detailed modelling of biodiversity (changes) (on Natura 2000 and other protected areas) - ….. … and so on … and so on …

Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Conclusions: A variety of ex-post analyses can be carried out by the ICP M&M with respect to: - the exceedance of Critical Loads and Levels (N&S) - the state and timing of chemical recovery with the aid of Dynamic Modelling (results) - preliminary biodiversity assessments using empirical critical loads, dose-response functions Important are contributions by other ICPs to make full use of the WGE’s accumulated potential and knowledge.