1. Presentation of final results
Establishment of optimal control areas for acidification, eutrofication and ground level ozone
Presentation of final results
Michiel Roemer and Toon van Harmelen

2. Objective:
to designate geographically the optimal control areas with regard to the protection of soils, lakes and vegetation from ground-level ozone, acidification and eutrophication.
to establish how such control would impact on PM and ozone in relation to health
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

3. What is an optimal control area?
1) environmental approach
based on environmental protection per unit weight of reduced emission
2) environmental-economic approach
based on costs per unit ecosystem protection
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

4. How do we calculate optimal control areas?
1) the basis is the equivalency maps (SOx-acidification, NOx-acidification, NOx-eutrophication, NOx-AOT40f) produced by the LOTOS-EUROS model. This contains the elements of dispersion, distance to ecoystems, response to emissions, etc..
2 the choice of a configuration of control areas follows from the following considerations;
a) variability and robustness within optimal control area of the same order as within Member States
b) optimal control areas relatively easy to align with Member States borders (=> avoid large number of small control areas).
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

5. Method (environmental analysis)
determine equivalency maps of Europe, areas of equal exceedance change (acidification, eutrophication, AOT40f) per unit weight emission reduction SOx or NOx
calculate environmental burden in 2010 (baseline + ships)
calculate change in env. burden in response to 20% emission change per grid cell.
detailed approach for SOx with blocks of 2x1 lola
coarse approach for NOx with blocks of 6x5 lola
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

6. The LOTOS-EUROS model domain: 10W-60E; 35N-70N; 0-2 km
resolution: 1x0.5 lola
chemistry: CBM-IV
meteorology: 1997 (Univ. Berlin)
bound. c.: TM3
land-use: PELINDA database
emissions: baseline 2010, ships 2000 (*1.3), natural emis.
sulphur version
SO2 and SO4 only, pre-determined OH fields
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

7. critical load data 50x50 km resolution, provided by RIVM-CCE
data for all ecoystems
forest data (AOT40f) from PELINDA land-use database
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

8. the sulphur deposition (eq
the sulphur deposition (eq./ha/yr) in 2010 as a result of baseline emissions.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

9. the nitrogen deposition (eq
the nitrogen deposition (eq./ha/yr) in 2010 as a result of baseline emissions.
Optimal control areas
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10. Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq
Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq./ha/yr) for acidification for grid average deposition in 2010 (baseline).
Optimal control areas
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11. Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq
Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq./ha/yr) eutrophication for grid average deposition in 2010 (baseline).
Optimal control areas
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12. AOT40f (ppb.h) for 2010 (baseline).
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13. detailed approach for sulphur
for sulphur we used a simplified version of the model, allowing a large number of calculations.
20% of the local SOx emissions were reduced in blocks of 2x1 lola. For each of these changes the model was rerun, and the change in AAE determined.
The changes were expressed on a weight unit of the emission change.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

14. sulphur
the amount of SOx emission reduced with a 20% reduction per cell.
Optimal control areas
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15. the effect (%) per grid cell of changing the integrated AAE
the effect (%) per grid cell of changing the integrated AAE. All grid cells together are 100%
Optimal control areas
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16. the effect per tonne SOx reduction on AAE for acidification expressed with respect to the average effect. classes factor 3 apart
Optimal control areas
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17. A sensitivity experiment
effect per tonne SOx reduction on AAE-acidification expressed with respect to the average effect. In this case all fluxes are multiplied with 1.3.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

18. How to make optimal control areas?
1) based on equivalency maps, and the following considerations:
a) optimal control areas are comparable to Member States in terms of variation (effect-tonne) and robustness (shifting emissions)
b) it should be possible to fit the borders of optimal control areas with Member State borders (=> avoid many small areas).
2) we have used the SO2 maps because of higher degree of detail
3) we checked consequences for health (O3 and PM10)
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

19. weighed average, standard deviation and ratio for the effect-tonne parameter (SO2 – acidification). Average and standard deviation are expressed with respect to the European mean. *
average
stdev
ratio AL
0.0347
0.0290
0.84 IT
0.0904
0.0897
0.99 AT
0.4683
0.4260
0.91 LI
0.7191
0.9345
1.30 BA
0.1077
0.0886
0.82 LU
0.9293
0.0000
0.00 BE
3.7355
2.1160
0.57 LV
0.5070
0.3977
0.78 BG
0.0359
0.0455
1.26 MD
0.0978
0.1121
1.15 BY
1.7932
3.0938
1.73 MK
0.0467
0.0434
0.93 CH
0.6601
0.6743
1.02 MN
0.0791
0.0788
1.00 CZ
0.7469
0.7258
0.97 NL
3.5633
3.3531
0.94 DK
4.8471
4.0255
0.83 NO
6.5645
3.08 DE
3.0942
4.8428
1.57 PL
1.3796
2.4766
1.80 EE
0.7495
0.7474 PT
0.0477
0.0173
0.36 ES
0.1326
0.2437
1.84 RO
0.0939
0.1843
1.96 FI
0.8252
1.6994
2.06 RU
0.4024
0.9330
2.32 FR
1.7685
3.8024
2.15 SB
0.0858
0.0835 GB
3.3942
5.7240
1.69 SE
5.2264
2.30 GR
0.0137
0.0146
1.06 SK
0.5124
0.3171
0.62 HR
0.1218
0.1275
1.05 SL
0.1257
0.0748
0.59 HU
0.2729
0.2949
1.08 TU
0.0085
0.0142
1.68 IE
0.4459
0.5121 UA
0.3266
0.5269
1.61
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006
* Serbia (SB) and Montenegro (MN) are taken separately

20. Robustness
Does it matter if a reduction of 20% of SO2 emissions in an area is applied:
a) proportional over all grid cells in the area,
b) in order of the most effective cells first,
c) in order of the least effective cells first?
This procedure is repeated for a number of optimal control area configurations, and for the current configuration of Member States.
We have tested several configurations, 2 of them are shown
(bub7 and bub3)
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

21. effect (dAAE) of 3 approaches for 2 configurations.
flat
least
most
Ratio least/flat
Ratio most/flat
Bub7.1
870
680
1415
Bub7.2
2850
1900
4295
Bub7.3
1280
825
Bub7.4
330
185
490
Bub7.5
135 90
210
Bub7.6 70 45
110
Bub7.7 10 5
total
5545
3730
8430
0.67
1.52
Bub3.1
4820
1765
10740
Bub3.2
635
170
1390
Bub3.3 40
165
1975
12295
0.35
2.22
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

22. dAAE even least most Ratio least/even Ratio most/even AL 4.5 3 6 0.67
1.33 AT 23 7
47.5
0.30
2.07 BA
24.5 21 33
0.86
1.35 BE
505
323
727.5
0.64
1.44 BG 19 14 28
0.74
1.47 CH 9 13
0.50 CS 55 82
0.60
1.49 CZ
76.5 54
94.5
0.71
1.24 DE
1240
270
3159.5
0.22
2.55 DK
344.5
140.5
648.5
0.41
1.88 EE
28.5
11.5
62.5
0.40
2.19 ES
37.5
8.5
89.5
0.23
2.39 FI
20.5 5 50
0.24
2.44 FR
497.5 61
1407.5
0.12
2.83 GB
706
293.5
1267
0.42
1.79 GR
2.5 1 4
1.60 HR
12.5
7.5 18 HU 30 99
0.56
1.83 IE 10
0.5
30.5
0.05
3.05
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

23. dAAE even least most Ratio least/even Ratio most/even IT 26 8.5 56.5
0.33
2.17 LT
17.5 10 31
0.57
1.77 LV
6.5
4.5 9
0.69
1.38 MD 3
5.5
0.67
1.22 MK 8
9.5
1.19 MN 5
10.5
0.59
1.24 NL
507.5
343
778
0.68
1.53 NO
121.5
285
0.07
2.35 PL
770.5
421
1449.5
0.55
1.88 PT 4 2
7.5
0.50 RO
48.5 27
90.5
0.56
1.87 SE
456
178
716.5
0.39
1.57 SK 67
32.5
0.49
1.81 SL 6
0.75
1.08
 All MS
5722
2342
11444
0.41
2.00
Europe
5060 85
19630
0.02
3.88
sea
491 12
1944
3.96
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

24. national boundaries dAAE flat least most Ratio least/flat
Ratio most/flat
Bub3.1
4820
1765
10740
0.37
2.23
Bub3.2
635
170
1390
Bub3.3 90 40
165
Total Bub3
5545
1975
12295
0.35
2.22
Bub2.1+
4274
1019
10546
0.24
2.47
Bub2.2+
1279 50
5300
Total Bub2+
5553
1069
15846
0.19
2.85
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

25. geographical distribution sulphur AAE-acidification
Optimal control areas
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26. geographical distribution (2)
the effect per tonne SOx reduction on AAE for acidification expressed with respect to the average effect. classes factor 5 apart
Optimal control areas
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27. health
a few sensitivity experiments were carried out to examine effects on health related parameters (AOT60, SOMO35, PM10) when emissions (SO2, NOx) are reduced in different ways:
a) proportional over all grid cells in the area,
b) in order of the most effective cells first,
c) in order of the least effective cells first.
The reductions apply on the trading zone consisting of FR, GB, DE, BE, LU, NL, DK, SE, NO.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

28. The difference in AOT60 (ppb
The difference in AOT60 (ppb.h) between a 20% flat reduction of SO2 and NOx in trading zone 1 and the baseline 2010.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

29. The difference in AOT60 (ppb
The difference in AOT60 (ppb.h) between an effective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

30. The difference in AOT60 (ppb
The difference in AOT60 (ppb.h) between an ineffective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

31. The difference in PM10 (µg
The difference in PM10 (µg.m-3) between a 20% flat reduction of SO2 and NOx in trading zone 1 and the baseline 2010
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

32. The difference in PM10 (µg
The difference in PM10 (µg.m-3) between an effective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

33. The difference in PM10 (µg
The difference in PM10 (µg.m-3) between an ineffective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

34. Conclusions health
health related parameters are affected by shifting the emission (reductions).
The parameter that was influenced most was PM10 through changes in nitrate, sulphate and (indirectly) ammonia.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

35. nitrogen
For nitrogen the same approach as for sulphur was used, except that the emission changes were applied on larger blocks. This is due to the fact that all runs were to be done with the full chemical model.
The equivalency maps are therefore coarser.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

36. nitrogen AAE-acidification
the effect per tonne NOx reduction on AAE for acidification expressed with respect to the average effect.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

37. nitrogen AAE eutrophication
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38. nitrogen AOT40f
Optimal control areas
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39. nitrogen combined (1)
optimal control areas for NOx emission reduction when acidification, eutrophication and ozone are combined in equal weights
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

40. nitrogen combined (2)
Optimal control areas for NOx emission reduction combining the three themes. A grid cell is seen as effective (orange>1) when it is effective in at least one theme.
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

41. Conclusions on environmental analysis
Optimal control areas (in an environmental sense) are established on the basis of equivalent effects (per tonne reduction) on the European ecosystems. Three classes are distinguished:
1) high effects,
2) intermediate effects, and
3) low effects.
For SOx and NOx in relation to acidification at least two optimal control areas emerge, depending on scaling a third area could emerge.
For NOx in relation to eutrophication and protection of forest (AOT40f), two optimal control areas appear, but with different contours.
It seems that by combining the three themes one optimal control area for NOx is enough
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006

42. Recommendations
to extend this study with other components: VOC, NH3, PM2.5
to repeat the NOx calculations on a finer scale
use the indicative results on the configuration of different zones to examine the costs and environmental implications as well as their distribution over the various countries, of allowing flexibility starting from a realistic baseline for the emissions of all relevant pollutants;
Optimal control areas
December 19, 2006