1. LBG/LB 1 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 New developments on air pollution effects to ecosystems: ozone and acidification Workshop on review and Assessment of European Air Pollution Policies, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Jean-Paul Hettelingh CLRTAP-Working Group on Effects ICP M&M Coordination Center for Effects, taking note of JEG, ICP-V, ICP-IM, ICP-F, ICP-W, ICP-M.

2. LBG/LB 2 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Ozone

3. LBG/LB 3 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Ozone Findings from long term monitoring Ozone injury on vegetation is widespread in Europe and ozone reduces the growth of sensitive plant species in particular in central and southern Europe Leaf injury has been recorded on ozone-sensitive species at 85% of the ICP-V sites, every year and several times per year, and on 20 horti and agricultural commercial crop in the growing season. Ozone causes forest tree growth reduction

4. LBG/LB 4 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 AOT40 for crops and natural vegetation: Adverse effects when the Ozone concentration Accumulated over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40) exceeds 3 ppm h AOT40 for forests: Growth reduction when the AOT40 exceeds 5 ppm h or AOT30 exceeds 9 ppm h. Key indicators for Ozone in RAINS policy support

5. LBG/LB 5 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Excess of AOT40 for forests (5 ppm h). 2000 2010 2020 Source: CIAM; EMEP Eulerian model; 1999 & 2003 meteo.

6. LBG/LB 6 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Ozone effect monitoring: New developments Biology: New stomatal flux-based exposure indices to account for biological processes involving ozone uptake, Meteorology: Taking account of humidity and other climatic conditions (light, temperature) Policy relevance: –Assessment of ecosystem area specific risk of ozone damage –Multiple impact assessment including e.g.trade off between air pollution and climate change effects.

7. LBG/LB 7 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Acidification

8. LBG/LB 8 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Average Accumulated Exceedance of critical load of acidity in 2000 EMEP Lagrangian (shown on 50x50 grid) EMEP Unified Exceedance caused by S and N deposition

9. LBG/LB 9 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Acidity Exceedance in 2010: Sulphur still important ! By S deposition aloneBy S + NOx deposition

10. LBG/LB 10 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Acidity Exceedance: continued …2010 By S + NH3 deposition By total N deposition

11. LBG/LB 11 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Nutrient Nitrogen

12. LBG/LB 12 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Average Accumulated Exceedance of critical load of nutrient N in 2000 EMEP Lagrangian (shown on 50x50 grid) EMEP Unified

13. LBG/LB 13 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 73.034.777.735.1ecosystem specific dep. 59.228.564.929.2grid average deposition Unified Model & 2004 CLs 49.023.156.024.52004 critical loads 54.424.660.726.01998 critical loads Lagrangian model EU25EuropeEU25Europe 20102000 % eco-area with CLO-nutrient nitrogen exceeded in 2000 and 2010

14. LBG/LB 14 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Nutrient nitrogen exceedance: continued …2010 By NOx deposition By NH3 deposition

15. LBG/LB 15 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Exceedance…meaning ?

16. LBG/LB 16 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Biology Critical response Soil critical limit Deposition critical load New development: dynamic modelling

17. LBG/LB 17 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Nitrogen supply Source: Vaclav Smill (1996) Cycles of Life, Scientific American Library, p. 188; Based on J.D Ader (1993) in: Donnell and Picket, Springer Verlag.

18. LBG/LB 18 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 CO2N depS dep Biomass Soil Temperature - - - + + + Eutrophication and Carbon sequestration: unraveling the dynamics of a trade-off issue… C/N - - +/- [O3] - A new generation of multiple impact monitoring and assessment

19. LBG/LB 19 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 Conclusions Ozone continues to stress ecosystems New knowledge on Ozone DR-relations Acidification still puts ecosystems at risk Ammonia most important, but sulphur not over Eutrophication an increasing problem Can we trade off N eutrophication for C sequestration ? More knowledge required of system dynamics of ecosystem impacts and ozone, acidification, eutrophication and climate change Long term monitoring indispensable to support a new generation of the multiple effect assessment methodology.

20. LBG/LB 20 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004 www.rivm.nl/cce j.p.hettelingh@rivm.nl