Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent Martel Lisbon, April 2010 New projections of the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population with the Demosim microsimulation model Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent Martel Lisbon, April 2010

Context Rapid increase in the ethnocultural diversity observed through last censuses Immigrants and diversity highly concentrated in some large urban areas of Canada Impacts on policy planning led, in 2005, to the publication of Population projections of visible minority groups in Canada, 2001-2017

Goal of the project In 2007, new projections requested by three federal departments responsible of programs related to Employment Equity Multiculturalism Labour market integration Fight against racism and discrimination Goal : provide an overview of what could be the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population in 2031

Outline General overview of Demosim, the microsimulation model used for the projections Main projection results related to the future ethnocultural diversity of Canada

Overview of DemoSim : contents and functioning

The Demosim model It is a microsimulation population projection model in which individuals are projected one by one each event occurs at the individual level Microsimulation allows to project a large number of characteristics an to use them as determinants of events

Some specificities of DemoSim Starts with the complete 2006 census microdata base (20% sample) Model is at the individual level (no family nor household level) Is built to integrate assumptions on components of population change Is conceived to project the demographic and ethnocultural composition of the population Is programmed with MODGEN

Contents of Demosim Main characteristics included in the model: Place of residence (33 metropolitan areas, provinces, on-off Indian reserves) Age Sex Generation status : 1st (foreign-born), 2nd (children of immigrants), 3rd or more Place of birth Religious denomination Visible minority group Mother tongue Highest level of schooling Labour force participation Aboriginal identity Registered Indian Status Auxiliary variables are also included

Modules of Demosim Main events simulated : Births, including intergenerational transfers Deaths Internal migration Immigration Emigration Change of highest level of schooling Change in marital status Change of religion over the life cycle Change in labour force participation Departure of children from parental home Each event is generated through a module in Demosim

Modules of Demosim Main data sources : Censuses of population Population estimates Administrative data Vital statistics Longitudinal Administrative Database Citizenship and Immigration Data Survey data General Social Surveys (GSS) Ethnic diversity survey (EDS) Labour force survey (LFS)

Scenarios The results presented here come essentially from the medium growth scenario : TFR = 1.7 Immigration level = 7.5 immigrants / 1000 inhabitants Composition of immigration based on 2001-2006 Life expectancy reached in 2031 : females = 86.6; males=83.1 Internal migration : based on 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses

Ethnocultural composition of Canada from 2006 to 2031 : key findings

Towards a high proportion of foreign-born persons in Canada Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

From an European to an Asian foreign-born population Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Rapid increase of the proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups among the Canadian-born (reference scenario) Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Increasing diversity among the population of Canada Allophones Foreign Born Visible Minorities Non-Christian Religions Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

South Asian and Chinese populations could more than double in size between 2006 and 2031 Visible minority groups 2006 2031 Medium scenario in thousands percentage Total 32,522 100.0 42,078 Total - Visible minority 5,285 16.3 12,855 30.6 Chinese 1,269 3.9 2,714 6.4 South Asian 1,320 4.1 3,640 8.7 Black 815 2.5 1,809 4.3 Filipino 427 1.3 1,020 2.4 Latin American 317 1.0 733 1.7 Southeast Asian 250 0.8 449 1.1 Arab 276 930 2.2 West Asian 164 0.5 523 1.2 Korean 148 407 Japanese 85 0.3 142 Other visible minorities 213 0.7 489 Rest of the population 27,237 83.7 29,222 69.4 Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Diversity mostly concentrated among a few CMAs in Canada (proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups) Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Toronto-Vancouver-Montréal: different ethnocultural portrait in 2031 % Visible minority groups by 2031 (reference scenario) in Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Conclusion Population diversity is expected to : Continue to increase until 2031 in Canada To increase within the Canadian-born population To remain concentrated geographivally

To know more about the projections or Demosim See on the Statistics Canada’s web site – Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (catalogue number 91-551-X) Contact us : Eric.Caron-Malenfant@statcan.gc.ca or Andre.Lebel@statcan.gc.ca or Laurent.Martel@statcan.gc.ca Demography Division Clients Service : demography@statcan.gc.ca