1. WHO IS STAYING AND FOR HOW LONG: RE-MIGRATION OF CANADA’S IMMIGRANTS IN THE 1990s Margaret Michalowski Claude Grenier Demography Division Statistics Canada Canadian Population Society Annual Meetings Toronto, May 30 - June 1, 2002

2. PLAN ò Setting the background l Why re-migration of immigrants is important to Canada l What do we know about re-migration of immigrants ò Changing international context ò How Canadian immigrants are behaving l Return migration trend from Canada in the 1990s l Recency of arrival and propensity to return l Country of origin vs. propensity to return ò Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.

3. 71-72 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 93-94 95-96 97-98 99-00 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Why re-migration of immigrants is important During the 1990s, immigration added 7 out of 10 persons to Canadian population growth % of population growth Immigration/Population growth Immigrants Numbers 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

4. What do we know about re-migration of immigrants  Low immigration  high emigration? ò Re-migration is related to country of origin and other personal characteristics (age, sex, occupation) ò First 5 years after arrival are critical ò Longer stays produce less emigration

5. Changing international context ò Globalization ò Trade agreements Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, 1989 North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994 Asia - rapid economic development ò Further diversification of origins of Canadian immigrants

6. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100  20 years 15 - 19 years < 15 years Immigration from Asia during the 1980s and 1990s has significantly altered the ethnic composition of the Canadian foreign-born population 1996 Census All others 22.6 Asia 39.6 Europe 19.3 UK 12.4 US 6.1 % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %  20 years 15 - 19 years < 15 years 1981 Census All others 9.8 Asia 8.5 Europe 51.9 UK 23.7 US 6.1 10.7 11.7 50.3 21.4 5.9 22.2 51.8 4.2 18.3 3.5 7.8 29.5 58.0 8.4 15.6 26.9 27.8 21.3

7. Estimation Model for Emigration of Immigrants DEPARTURES OF IMMIGRANTS during 1991 - 1996 1991-96 cohort Before 1991 cohort Adjustment for mortality Adjustment for coverage 1991-96 immigrants Immigrant population 1996 Census 1991 Census C.I.C. Immigrant population Adjustment for coverage Immigrated before 1991 Immigrated 1991-96

8. Overall levels of re-migration: 1981-86 to 1991-96 Recent immigrant cohorts - immigrated during the same period as their emigration period “Older” immigrant cohorts - immigrated prior to the period of their emigration Period of emigration 1981-861986-911991-96 Foreign-born emigrants147,000 241,000 228,000 Recent cohorts 53,000 50,000 119,000 "Older" cohorts 94,000 191,000 109,000 All emigrants*341,000 312,000 402,000 Temporarily abroad53,000 84,000 150,000 Emigrated288,000 228,000 252,000 * Census Coverage Study estimates

9. Overall, re-migration of immigrants has slowed down during the beginning of the 1990s; however, for Asian and African immigrants the opposite is true 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % Central/South America/ Caribbean EuropeAfricaAsiaOceania Total 1986-91 = 5.7 Total 1991-96 = 4.8 ‘86-’91‘91-’96 5.5 5.0 4.6 1.8 2.0 6.7 6.5 9.7 6.3 7.6 ‘86-’91‘91-’96‘86-’91‘91-’96‘86-’91‘91-’96‘86-’91‘91-’96

10. During 1991-96, among the top source countries, recent cohorts of immigrants had several times higher propensity to re-migrate than the “older” cohorts did; immigrants from the U.S. and Poland are exceptions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 U.S.El SalvadorU.K.PolandLebanonChinaHong KongPhilippinesVietnamIndia % Recent cohorts “Older” cohorts All countries, recent cohort, 10.1 All countries, “old” cohort, 2.7 Immigrants in 1991-96 (‘000) 27.317.827.740.728.6107.4130.782.435.887.2

11. Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S. With the exception of the 1970s, re-migration of Canadian immigrants, relative to immigration, was higher than that of American immigrants 1,175,000 228,000 5,766,000 1,553,000 17,916,000 4,451,000 1,331,000 388,000 7,869,000 1,950,000 1,440,000 345,000 4,334,000 1,176,000 1,420,000 468,000 3,213,000 900,000 1,575,000 352,000 2,500,000 425,000 EM/IMM 0.194 0.269 0.292 0.330 0.223 EM/IMM 0.248 0.280 0.170 0.2400.271 CanadaU.S. Immigrants Foreign-born Emigrants Immigrants Foreign-born Emigrants Period 1991-96 Total 1951 - 90 1981-90 1971-80 1961-70 1951-60

12. Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S. Contrary to Canada’s immigrants, recent cohorts of U.S. immigrants have lower re-migration rates than old cohorts Canada 1986 - 90 U.S. 1980 - 90 Recent cohortOld cohort Recent cohort Old cohort All Males Females 1.231.000.771.13 1.350.930.841.22 1.111.080.701.05 Annual re-migration rate (%)

13. Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S. In the 1980s, Americans were leaving Canada more often than Canadians were U.S. Departures (annual) Americans from Canada 1980 - 90 5,400 or 3.4% 1991 - 96 950 or 0.8% Canadians from U.S. 1980 - 90 11,000 or 1.4% 1991 - 96 ?

14. What next? ò More personal characteristics (age, education, occupation) ò More detailed analysis of impact of length of residence in Canada ò Pre-immigration experience ò Expand the period up to 2001 ò Destination of re-migration - U.S. vs. other countries