TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group April 12th 2007 Television Bureau of Advertising Annual Marketing Conference

2 Overview 2007 Backdrop State and Local Spending 2007 Presidential Impact 2008 Outlook What to Watch Looking Ahead TNS Media Intelligence – Page

3 TNS Media Intelligence 2007 an “Off (the charts) Year” The Backdrop 2007 is year 3 of the political “business cycle” On-track to surpass previous off-year spending Ad spending historically has been driven by state and local races during the 1 st & 2 nd quarters with localized Presidential Primary ad spending by the 3 rd and 4 th quarters Record Fundraising - BCRA’s “built-in” annual 10% increase Robust Issue Advocacy Climate - State and Federal TNS Media Intelligence – Page

4 2007Ad Spending State and Local Politics Mayors Over 1000 Mayors Races Nationwide from Aberdeen (WA) to Zion (IL) 1 st Quarter $7.7 million in TV ad spending (Over $19 million spent in 2003) TV Driven Cities: Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Houston, Dallas, Kansas City Governors 2003 spending over $18 million Kentucky, Louisiana & Mississippi 1 st Quarter 2007 $1.2 million Full Primary fields in KY and now LA Post-Katrina Gulf Coast political climate likely to get national attention and money 2008 Races on the air in 2007 TNS Media Intelligence – Page

Ad Spending State and Local Politics More Down Ballot Races Using Ads State and Local Races State Judges continue to gain in ad spending: over $2 million spent in 1 st quarter WI race Ballot Measures Special Elections State Issue Ad Campaigns $21.3 Million Spent in 1 st Quarter Healthcare – NY, CA, CT, IA, WV, OK - Local Issues – VA, IA, FL, UT - Education – IA, NY - Telecommunications States considering new legislation or regulation in 2007 (TN, FL, GA, WI & IL currently running ads)

Ad Spending The 2007 Presidential Race Both Democrats and Republicans Have 3 Tiers of Candidates: - Tier 1 – “In it to win it” - Capable of raising $60-$100+ million in 2007, will have paid staff in a dozen or more states and likely will spend $ million on ads before February Tier 2 – “Most likely to drop out of the race before running ads” - Potential to raise $20-$50 million, paid staff in 4-9 States and likely to spend $10+ million on ads - Tier 3 – “Just in it” - Will spend a combined $2- $15million on ads

Ad Spending The 2007 Presidential Race The Landscape The Primary Calendar is Compacted Tremendous Tuesday! CA, FL, NJ, NC and others are moving up to 2/5/2008, ending the nomination process by this time next year State movement will likely impact paid media strategy (Timing, Markets, Media Outlets) Inventory will be a greater issue in early states (IA, NH, SC) Ad Spending Candidates and Groups Spent a Combined $1 million in the 1 st Quarter 2007 Likely to see “battleground” media markets 527s Likely to play a “significant” supporting role -- Groups will seek to “swift boat” front- runners and extend resources of the front runners Movement driven groups using ads to piggyback onto the media coverage

8 What To Watch Political Calendar - Primary movement likely to place a greater importance on IA, NH, NV and SC for Tiers 1 & 2 - As more states move up their Primary dates a move to Dec 07 is possible in IA and NH - Primary ad spending for House and Senate races will likely appear in 2007 Political Climate & Media Strategy - More Internet spending, but still a drop in the bucket compared to TV ad spending - More Net Cable than Cable and Radio should also see gains - YouTube and other “Homemade” spots will be used as fundraising and buzz generation tools - Front runners will dictate the importance of the early states - A late entry (or two) and vote by mail and early voting states could alter campaigns’ media strategy

9 Looking Forward 2008 Steady fundraising and the potential of well- funded third party candidates likely means no post-nomination lull in ad spending 2008: replay of 2004 with battleground states, likely many of the same states from 2004 Ad Spending will Surpass totals 1/3 of the Senate up in 2008 (majority are held by Republicans) and US House races will likely replicate 2006 non-Presidential spending 11 states holding Governors races in 2008, several states expected to overlap the Presidential battleground Probable Perfect Storm States: Colorado, North Carolina, West Virginia, Washington, Missouri, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Maine and Minnesota

10 Stay Tuned Thank you TNS Media Intelligence – Page