1. Construction Market Funding Trends
U.S. Transportation
Construction Market Funding Trends
Alison Premo Black, PhD
ARTBA Senior VP & Chief Economist
The Conway Conference
February 27, 2019

2. Federal-Aid Program Highway & Bridge Investment

3. Source: ARTBA analysis of the FAST Act
Source: ARTBA analysis of the FAST Act. Project costs are expected to grow in line with historical averages according to the ARTBA price index, which takes into account changes in material prices, industry wages and overall inflation. Inflation forecast of 2% from CBO's August 2015 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025.

4. Developments in Federal Highway Investment
FY 2018 & 2019 Appropriations
Over $13 billion in supplemental investments
$5.8 billion two-year boost for highways
$1.6 billion additional transit funding
End six-years of stagnant airport investment
Largest increase since stimulus package
Outlook for Infrastructure Bill

5. The Highway Trust Fund Revenue Crisis Will Return
Source: Congressional Budget Office Highway Trust Fund baseline, April 2018
Total may not add up due to rounding.

6. Federal funds, on average, provide 51% of annual State DOT
capital outlays for highway & bridge projects
Over 69% of state highway & bridge capital outlays
50 to 69% of state highway & bridge capital outlays
28 to 49% of state highway & bridge capital outlays
35%
NH 51%*
68%*
92%*
49%*
61%*
64%
54% VT
80%
42%
51%
47%
70%
72%
69%*
MA 41%
62%
55%
42%
44%
41%
39%
56%*
64%
CT 63%
RI 95%*
72%*
59%*
74%
70%
50%
40%*
DE 50%*
NJ 28%*
64%*
46%*
88%*
54%*
70%
35%
58%*
76% MD
39%*
DC 54%*
64%*
71%*
74%*
53%
77%*
37%
HI 82%
Source: ARTBA analysis of FHWA Highway Statistics data, total ten year average from tables SF-1 and SF-2. The percent is the ratio of federal aid reimbursements to the state and total state capital outlays and is indicative of the importance of the federal aid program to state capital spending for highways and bridges. Does not include local capital spending. Federal highway reimbursements are primarily used for capital outlays, including construction, right of way and engineering, but are also used for debt service for GARVEE bonds.
* States that have issued GARVEE bonds before 2014.

7. Highway & Bridge Investment
Developments in
State & Local
Highway & Bridge Investment

8. 2019: 156 Transportation Funding-Related Bills in 36 States To-DateAK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Recurring Revenue
One-Time Funding
Non-Funding
Introduced
Ballot Pending
Source: ARTBA’s Transportation Investment Advocacy Center Jan State Funding Initiatives Report.
* Indicates multiple bills in varying stages.

9. 2019: 156 Transportation Funding-Related Bills in 36 States To-DateAK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Michigan: 0 bills.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) intends work with the state legislature to find funding for transportation fixes.
West Virgina: 5 bills.
Severance taxes
Kentucky: 2 bills.
Alter motor fuel tax and add EV fee
Mileage-Based Transportation Funding Task Force
Recurring Revenue
One-Time Funding
Non-Funding
Introduced
Ballot Pending
Source: ARTBA’s Transportation Investment Advocacy Center Jan State Funding Initiatives Report.
* Indicates multiple bills in varying stages.

10. 2019 State Transportation Funding Legislation
Source: ARTBA-TIAC’s Jan State Transportation Funding Monthly Report

11. States Introduced Over 214 Transportation Funding Bills in 2018AK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Legislation Approved
Legislation Introduced
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report, May 2018

12. One State Approved a State Fuel Tax Increase in 2018
Proposed AK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Ballot
Approved
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report: July 2018

13. One State Implemented or Adjusted Variable-Rate Gas TaxesAK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Approved/Adjusted
Introduced
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report July 2018

14. Seven States Approved One-Time RevenuesAK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Approved
Introduced
Ballot
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report July 2018

15. Two States Approved Alternative Fuel & Electric Vehicle Taxes/FeesAK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Approved
Introduced
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report, July 2018

16. Five States Approved Other Recurring Funding MeasuresAK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Approved
Introduced
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report July 2018

17. 11 States Approved Other Funding MeasuresAK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Approved
Introduced
Pending
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report July 2018

18. Voters Approve $30B+ in Transportation Funding Nov. 6 2018AK WA
$955K OR
$10M CA
$1.9B ID MT WY NV AZ
$529M CO
$128M NM
$13M ND
$17M SD NE KS
$12M OK TX
$1.2B MN IA MO
$50M WI
$110M IL
$3M MI
$101M IN KY TN MS AL
$107M OH NY PA
$42M VA
$227M NC
$226M GA
$183M
FL $24.9B ME WV AR UT
$87M HI SC
$120M VT
CT $90M
RI $13M DE NJ MD
$217M DC NH MA LA
$75M
$274M
Source: ARTBA TIACTM Research, Updated November 7, 2018.

19. Percent of Ballot Measures Approved 2009-2018

21. Political Party of Legislature and Governor where State Gas Tax Increases were passed 2013-2017AK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
Democrat Leg & Gov
Republican Leg & Gov
Different Parties

22. 93% of State Legislators Voting for a Gas Tax Increase Were Reelected in 2018AK WA OR CA ID MT WY NV AZ CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN IA MO WI IL MI IN KY TN MS AL OH NY PA VA NC GA FL ME WV AR UT HI SC VT CT RI DE NJ MD DC NH MA LA
States Tracked
Source: TIAC

23. State Outlook for Highway & Bridge Investment

24. State Financial Outlook Has Improved
FY 2018 General Fund Revenue Collections on target or higher than planned for all states
9 states made FY 2018 mid-year budget cuts
22 states made mid-year budget cuts in FY 2017;
13 states planning to cut general fund transportation spending in FY 2018
Ten states used transportation related fees or user fees to manage their FY 2017 budget
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, The Fiscal Survey of States Spring 2018

25. States Making Mid-Year Budget Cuts
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers

26. Real Value of State & Local Government Highway & Bridge Contract Awards
Source: ARTBA analysis of data from Dodge Data Analytics, adjusted with ARTBA Price Index.

27. Real Value of State & Local Government Highway & Bridge Contract Awards – Ohio
Source: ARTBA analysis of data from Dodge Data Analytics, adjusted with ARTBA Price Index for Ohio.

28. Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
Alison Premo Black
Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
@APremoBlack