PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND KHARIF PROSPECTS NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE FOR KHARIF CAMPAIGN 2010 Gurbachan Singh Gurbachan Singh Agriculture Commissioner Ministry of Agriculture Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

 Rabi Review  Kharif Prospects  Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward

4.17 m ha less coverage in rice 4.17 m ha less coverage in rice More area under sorghum and maize More area under sorghum and maize 0.61 m ha more coverage under pulses 0.61 m ha more coverage under pulses 0.60 m ha less coverage in Oilseeds 0.60 m ha less coverage in Oilseeds Kharif rice production less by m t Kharif rice production less by m t 0.48 m t less pulses 0.48 m t less pulses More area coverage in cotton 10.3 m ha compared to 9.40 m ha last year More area coverage in cotton 10.3 m ha compared to 9.40 m ha last year Oilseeds production m t against m t in Oilseeds production m t against m t in Overall Kharif foodgrain production less by m t compared to Kharif 2009 at a Glance : Abnormal Southwest Monsoon

 Strategy worked out to compensate kharif loss in Rabi  Late rains (end of kharif season): Rabi prospects brightened with early sowing of oilseeds, pulses and rainfed wheat  102.3% area coverage compared to normal area under Rabi  117.3% area under pulses as compared to normal  Less coverage under oilseeds mainly due to less coverage of mustard in Rajasthan Rabi Scenario

 Overall about 2.2 lakh ha more coverage compared to last year  Good timely rains in M.P., U.P. and some other States : M.P. and U.P. may harvest record wheat production.  No major pest menace, bright sunshine and continued prolonged moderate winter temperatures will contribute for enhanced productivity.  No significant frost damage on winter crops in north- west India Record wheat production is expected during

Rabi Area Coverage as on Crop Normal Area This year Last Year + over last year Wheat Rice Jowar Maize Barley Total Coarse Cereals Cereals Pulses Total foodgrains coverage (in Lakh ha)

Second Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains CropSeason nd Adv. Estimates Final Estimates Target 2 nd Adv. Estimates RiceKharif Rabi Total Wheat C.CerealsKharif Rabi Total CerealsKharif Rabi Total Total Pulses Kharif Rabi Total Total foodgrains Kharif Rabi Total (Million tons) Source : DAC

Second Advance Estimates of Production of other Crops CropSeason nd Adv. Estimates Final Estimates Target 2 nd Adv. Estimates Total Nine Oilseeds (lakh t) Kharif Rabi Total Cotton* (Total) (lakh Bales each 170 kg) Jute (lakh Bales each 180 kg) Mesta( lakh Bales each 180 kg) Jute and Mesta Sugarcane (cane) (lakh t ) Source : DAC

Super Imposing Rainfall Temperature MSP Seeds Fertilizers Others

Super Imposing Rainfall Temperature MSP Seeds Fertilizers Others

Planning for Kharif 2010 Likely Monsoon Scenarios Below normal like 2009 Below normal like 2009 Normal Normal Above normal Above normal Pre-monsoon good showers Pre-monsoon good showers Early onset early withdrawal Early onset early withdrawal Late onset, early / late withdrawal Late onset, early / late withdrawal Timely onset – long break – late revival – extended phase Timely onset – long break – late revival – extended phase Extended monsoon (End September) Extended monsoon (End September) Matching seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, machinery, plant protection, mulching materials etc. (contingency plans) Matching seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, machinery, plant protection, mulching materials etc. (contingency plans)

 In situ / ex situ rain water conservation  Availability of seed, fertilizers (P and K needed at sowing), plant protection equipments and pesticides etc.  Promotion of yield enhancing practices SRI SRI Quality Seeds / Hybrids Quality Seeds / Hybrids Conservation / Precision Agriculture Conservation / Precision Agriculture Integrated Nutrient, Water and Pest Management Strategies Integrated Nutrient, Water and Pest Management Strategies  Water, Fodder and Feed Availability for Animals Hints for Productivity Enhancement : Advance Planning

All India Position of Requirement And Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010 CropsRequirement Quantity in Qtls AvailabilitySurplus/Deficit Paddy Ragi Kodo Maize Bajra Jowar Total Cereals Urd Cowpea Moong Horsegram Field Bean Moth Arhar Rajmash Total Pulses

All India Position of Requirement and Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010 Quantity in Qtls RequirementAvailabilitySurplus/Deficit Castor Groundnut Niger Til Soybean Sunflower Total Oilseeds Cotton Total Fibre Bajra, Napier Hybrid Guar Sudan Grass Total Fodder Grand Total

Issues  Declining levels of soil organic matter Widening N: P : K Ratio Widening N: P : K Ratio Micro-nutrient deficiencies Micro-nutrient deficiencies Declining response in terms of grains / kg fertilizer Declining response in terms of grains / kg fertilizer Heavy metal pollution Heavy metal pollution Low nutrient use efficiency Low nutrient use efficiencyStrategies  Site Specific Nutrient Management : Soil testing labs and soil health cards  Fertilizer use as per ICAR /SAU’s Maps  Integrated Nutrient Management  Conservation Agriculture Practices  NBS: Balanced Nutrition Issues and Strategies Related to Soil Health Management

Current status of nutrient use efficiencyNutrient Efficiency percentage N30-50 P10-20 K<80 S8-12 Zn2-5 Fe1-2 Cu1-2 Mn1-2

Measures to increase nutrient use efficiencyMeasureNutrient Increase in nutrient use efficiency(%) Split vs. single dose application N15-20 Furrow placement vs broadcast application PK20-30 The incorporation of urea super granules (USG)vs split application N20 The foliar vs basal application Micro-nutrients15-20 Neem coated vs prilled urea N5-10 Preferential application of phosphorus to wheat in rice-wheat sequence P50

Area under important pulse crops and major pulse producing States Major Crops Major States Crop Area (%) State Production (%) Chickpea39Maharashtra20 Pigeon pea 21M.P.17 Mung bean 11Rajasthan11 Urad bean 10U.P.11 Lentil7A.P11 Peas5 70% of Total Production Current Production : 14.7 m t By 2020 : m t Productivity : : 659 kg / ha Import 3-4 m t / year Prices quite high Other countries kg/ha

Pulses production : Constraints & Strategies ConstraintsStrategies  Poor genetic potential  Inadequate quality seed availability  Marginal soils /85% under rainfed  Inadequate nutrition  Pests : YVM, Seed treatment  MSP and Trade  Genetic potential  Quality seeds  Area expansion : Rice fallows (4 m ha) and summer moong  Cropping intensity : Intercropping  Diversion of upland rice area (productivity < 1.5 t/ha)  Pigeon pea on rice bunds  INM / IPM modules  Site specific sowing and harvesting machines  Blue bulls  MSP and procurement

States with productivity less than national average Crop Wheat West Bengal, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Bihar, M.P. Maharashtra Rice U.P., Jharkhand, Assam, Bihar, Orissa, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh Pulses Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Karnataka Oilseeds West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka Source : Paper circulated during Chief Ministers Conference on

CAGR Yield Analysis of Major Crops – Rice State Yield (Kg / Hectare) CAGR of yield ( to ) * Punjab A.P Haryana W.B T.N Karnataka U.P Jharkhand Assam Bihar Orissa Maharashtra Chattisgarh All India Target CAGR 1.05 Note:* 4 th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE ); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR Green: States showing more than target CAGR

PulsesState Yield (Kg / Hectare) CAGR of yield ( to ) * U.P A.P M.P Bihar Gujarat Maharashtra Chattisgarh Orissa Rajasthan Karnataka All India Target CAGR** CAGR**0.24 Note:* 4 th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE ); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR: Green: States showing more than target CAGR

Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 1. High potential low productivity areas (Eastern U.P., Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh) - Extending Green Revolution to ER – 400 crores 2.Sustaining productivity in high productivity zones (Punjab, Haryana, Western U.P.) 3.Improving productivity in Coastal States - Multiple use of resources for mixed farming - Rain water harvesting / ground water recharge - DHORUV Technology

4.ENHANCING RAIN WATER UTILIZATION (currently 29% is utilized)  India largest ground water user in the world Exploiting 230 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year (1/4 th of global total) Exploiting 230 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year (1/4 th of global total) GW supports 60% irrigation and 80% rural and urban water supply GW supports 60% irrigation and 80% rural and urban water supply  29% of ground water blocks are semi-critical, critical and over exploited  By 2025, an estimated 60% of GW blocks will be in a critical situation  Country receives average annual rainfall of about 1 meter  Hardly 29% of rainfall utilized. Can it be increased to 40, 50, 60 ???  In – situ / ex – situ conservation / Ground water recharge  Crop diversification from high to low water demanding crops Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward

Rain water Harvest : The Best Option

5.Surplus food from small farm holdings through multienterprize agriculture Nearly 50% farmers cultivate less than one hectare Nearly 50% farmers cultivate less than one hectare Integrated farming system approach Integrated farming system approach Regular income and employment Regular income and employment A way to organic farming A way to organic farming Rs. 300 – 400 net income / day from one ha holding Rs. 300 – 400 net income / day from one ha holding A way to coup up with predicted climate change A way to coup up with predicted climate change Nutritional security Nutritional security Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward

Multi enterprise Model

Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 6.Soil and water conservation strategy for hilly and foot hill zones 7.Soil health and water quality issues vis-à-vis human and animal health 8.Bridging yield gaps between frontline demonstrations and district average yields 9.Area expansion through the reclamation of nearly 120 m ha waste lands : salt affected, acidic, eroded, ravines etc (dovetailing of Central Schemes like NREGA, RKVY, NHM etc.)

Flouride Toxicity Saline Waterlogged Soils Arsenic Toxicity

Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 10Couping-up strategies for predicted climate change : droughts, floods, heat and cold waves, frost etc 11.Conversion of waste into wealth : effective utilization of agricultural residues, waste water, use of industrial effluents 12.Remote sensing, GIS, GPS and Satellite techniques in assessment, implementation and monitoring of agricultural systems : Area coverage, crop condition and natural resources 13.Alternative livelihood opportunities in risk prone areas / alternative sources of food

Cold Wave of : Experience at Dehradun

Mango damaged by cold wave

( a )

Cold wave damaged crops of (a) tomato and (b) potato ( b )

Heat wave of March, 2004

Prosopis juliflora pods: An alternate source of human food and animal feed Alternate food, fodder and energy sources in dry areas

14.Effective working together mechanisms between research, development and policy at the district / block levels to ensure : Farmers participatory seed production (KVK’s, SAUs, Agriculture Departments, NGO’s Private Sector etc. at the district / block level ) Farmers participatory seed production (KVK’s, SAUs, Agriculture Departments, NGO’s Private Sector etc. at the district / block level ) Revisiting productivity of Central and State owned farms Revisiting productivity of Central and State owned farms Weather based forewarning advisories at the district level Weather based forewarning advisories at the district level 15.Food Saved is Food Produced (post harvest and storage losses) Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward

THE MESSAGE : Harvest and Store Rain water for Present and Future Generations