How to Achieve Universal Modern Energy Access by 2030? Hisham Zerriffi (UBC) Shonali Pachauri (IIASA)

Current Status of Global Modern Energy Access Source: Global Energy Assessment - Pachauri et al., 2012 >40% of the globe lacks access to clean cooking >20% of the globe lacks access to any electricity 2

What Do We Mean By Access? Physical access to energy – availability Economic access to energy –  Affordability of a connection and equipment  Affordability of the fuel or energy type Illegal access –  electricity thefts and unaccounted for T&D losses Quality and reliability of access – uninterrupted access and regular and easy supply Quantity of access – minimum thresholds of use 3

Electricity Central to All Aspects of Well-being & Development Private Benefits Illumination Communication & Entertainment Thermal Comfort Convenience Appliances Income Generation Mechanization (farm & industry) Home & Microenterprises Commercial Activity Public/ Community Services Public Lighting Health Care (vaccine refrigeration) Education Food Storage 4

Negative Consequences of Solid Fuels Dependence Social costs – ~4 million premature deaths a year from household air pollution – Between 1 to 5 billion women-hours lost annually in collection Impacts on livelihood – Limited productive hours in the day – Limited work and business possibilities Environmental impacts – Local forest, land and soil degradation – CO2 emissions if biomass is unsustainably harvested – Emissions of non-CO2 GHG and aerosols with higher GWP – Growing evidence of strong climate impacts of black carbon (soot) 5

Is Universal Access to Modern Energy Achievable by 2030? 6

Historical Electrification Trends Source: Global Energy Assessment - Pachauri et al.,

The pace of electrification across time and regions has been very uneven China electrified its entire population over a few decades. Thailand and South Africa, connected over 0.4 million new customers annually over a period of 5 years In SSA the growth in population, particularly in rural areas, still outpaces the rate of new connections Trends in Electricity Access for Regions with Least Access 8

Recent Trends in Access to Modern Energy for Cooking The number of people dependent on biomass alone has declined from 2.8 billion in 2000 to 2.7 billion in 2009, largely due to reduced dependence in China However, in addition to these numbers, 30% of people in China continue to depend on coal and over 10% in SSA depend on charcoal, so over 3 billion people still depend on solid fuels today In rural areas, dependence on solid fuels remains almost unchanged over the last decade in many developing countries 9

Without New and Dedicated Policies Access Goals by 2030 Unachievable 10

New Combinations of Policies for Modern Cooking Access Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or microfinance schemes that make cheap credit available for the purchase of new stoves are most effective People gaining access to modern energy carriers An additional 200 million without access by 2030 Subsidies alone reduce dependence by one-third Microfinance alone not very effective Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p

Energy Demand Implications of Access Policies Total household final energy demand is lower with access policies, though electricity and modern cooking fuel demand will rise Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p

Changes in GHG Emissions Due to Access Policies by Region Net Impacts on emissions are negligible Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p

What it will take to Achieve Universal Access by 2030? The GEA estimates, total investments of $ billion per year till 2030, ~ 5% of global annual energy sector investments, <8% of current fossil subsidies globally Detailed local assessments of existing demands, affordability and options for expanding access Focused and sustained government commitment and targeted and responsive policies:  Targeted price support (subsidies) on modern fuels  Grants or easier microcredit access for upfront costs Flexible and adequate institutional arrangements with local involvement and enhanced capacity building New business models and mechanisms to incentivize private sector involvement and cost recovery 14