1. Household Access to Modern Energy & Energy Needs for Decent Living Shonali Pachauri 22 February, 2013 New Delhi

2. Outline Recent trends and current status of modern energy access Outlook for universal access to modern energy by 2030 –No new policies scenario –Factors affecting household cooking choices –Costs and investments of access policies Impacts of modern energy access (health, GHGs) Broader benefits estimation Estimating energy needs for decent living

3. Historical Household Electrification Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1401-1458.

4. Current Status of Inequalities in Access to Electric Infrastructure Source: Pachauri et al. (in preparation) ~600 million each unconnected

5. Recent Trends in Access to Modern Energy for Cooking & Solid Fuel Use Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1401-1458.

6. Complexities of Modeling Energy Choices for the Rural Poor Most of the fuels are self-collected or non- commercial i.e. not bought for cash on markets Most poor rural households have little disposable income and irregular cash inflows Little data exists on – –Time spent on energy collection –Distance from household to source of fuel –Frequency of trips made and amount collected –Availability and costs of more efficient alternatives –Discounting horizon of the poor

7. A New Decision Framework: Factors Affecting Cooking Fuel Choice Price of fuels Costs of end-use appliances (cook stoves) – discounted capital costs “Inconvenience costs” of using traditional solid fuels Budget constraints –income levels Time value of money –income dependent “implicit discount rates” Source: Ekholm, Pachauri et al. 2010

8. Household Final Energy Use Across Region and Income – Ghana

9. MESSAGE-Access MODEL Technology detailed linear optimization (least-cost) model. Designed to analyze and assess future transitions in household energy use. Emphasis on consumer heterogeneity Considers socio-economic, locational and non-monetary drivers of energy use.

10. GEA Access Scenarios Pacific Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Almost universal grid electrification by 2030 Access to clean cooking for all by 2030 REGIONS TARGETS SCENARIOS Minimal (65 kWh/HH/Year) Full Access (420 kWh/HH/Year ) Fuel Subsidies Only Microfinance Only Combination of Fuel Subsidies and Microfinance

11. AFR SAS PAS NAM FSU WEU LAM EEU MEA CPA PAO Access Regions Regions of Focus

12. Without New Policies Access Goals by 2030 Unachievable Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305. Solid Fuel Dependence

13. Costs for Accelerating Access to Clean Cooking Services Total costs for providing clean cooking services – $38 to 50 billion per year till 2030, Source: Updated from GEA 2012 Pachauri et al. submitted

14. Additional Investments for Rural Grid Electrification Total investments needed for additional generation, O&M of plants and rural grid expansion to reach electricity access target by 2030 – $15 billion per year. Note: While decentralized renewable technologies may be more economic in certain sparsely populated rural regions, these are not assessed here due to substantial uncertainties in costs, due to the site specificity of these. Source: Updated from GEA 2012 Pachauri et al. submitted

15. Effect of Climate & Access Policies on Electricity Capacity Changes in SSA Source: GEA 2012; Bazilian et al. 2012

16. Changes in GHG Emissions Due to Access Policies by Region Net Impacts on emissions are negligible Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.

17. Health Benefits of Access to Modern Cooking Over 1 million lives saved annually Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.

18. Multiple Benefits – Need for Estimation Benefits of Saved Kerosene Subsidies in India Benefits for Indian Non- Farm Enterprises (NFE) NFE employ 25% of Indian workforce 50% of which are employed in rural areas And 25% of which are women With access: Probability of owning a NFE higher by 5% Earnings likely to be higher by 18% Regular and reliable supply crucial: Every hour of supply likely to raise earnings by 0.5% Source: Rao (forthcoming in Energy Policy) Source: Narula et al. 2012 72 million rural households (~43%) rely primarily on kerosene for lighting, many more use it for backup Current kerosene subsidies for rural lighting cost the government >$1 billion per year Universal electrification by 2030, could save $0.6-0.7 billion per year in avoided kerosene subsidies for lighting alone

19. Decent Living Emissions: Developing an Energy-based Threshold Universal Normative Standards, Country- Specific Energy –Culture –Path dependency Maintenance (Annual) and Development (One-time) energy Baseline technology – equity ‘neutral’

20. 70 yr Life Expectancy Primary/Secondary Schooling Paved Road Access Motorized Transport Gas/ Biogasifier Stove Balanced Nutrition 2,200 cal/cap/day Television Refrigerator Cell Phone Per Adult In house Sanitation 50 l/cap/day 100 Lumens/m 2 10m 2 /cap floor space Comfort: 50% Humidity, 18-27°C

21. China & India – Current Conditions * Data for China reported is appliances per 100 households, not access penetration

22. Methodology Normative Standard Material Requirements Embedded Energy Intensity Energy Universal Country-specific Economic Structure (Labor intensity) Technology (Mechanization) Culture (Recycling) Climate (HDD, CDD) Culture (Diet) Geography (Pop Density) Material Flow Analysis Life Cycle Analysis Input/Output Analysis Multiple Methods

23. THANK YOU pachauri@iiasa.ac.at Collaborators: N. Rao, Y. Nagai, K. Riahi, B. van Ruijven

24. GEA-Database www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb

25. Interactive Policy Tools Energy Access Tool: ENACT → www.iiasa.ac.at/web- apps/ene/ENACT Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: ENE-MCA Tool - multiple objectives, synergies and trade-offs → www.iiasa.ac.at/web- apps/ene/GeaMCA