Nomination and Announcement Unit II Lecture 3

Objective: What steps are necessary to announce as a presidential candidate?

Months 1-3 Testing the waters and gauging support Month 4 Announcement of candidacy Months 4-7 Build origination, develop strategies, and raise money Months 7-10 Secure support and endorsements from opinion leaders Months Compete in early primary and caucuses Months Campaign in later primary and caucuses Months State party conventions Month 20 National party conventions Months General election campaign Month 24 National election and Electoral College

The Invisible Primary Definition  Not a formal part of the process  A feeling out stage where candidates try to gauge their prospects

The Invisible Primary Importance  An absolute necessity for lesser known candidates  It is not uncommon for candidates to terminate their campaigns a year or more before the general election if they fail to attract support  Activity during this period is directed at party elites and the media

The Nomination Phase 50 plus separate contests, one goal  Each party, in each state holds a separate contest between February and June  Intra-party competition that decides who will be each party's candidate for president  Candidates compete for delegates to their party’s national conventions

The Nomination Phase Primaries versus caucuses  Primaries are intra-party elections  Caucuses are meetings of party members that select delegates for a nominating convention Caucuses are open to all registered members of a party Caucuses are usually conducted in multiple stages  In Nevada, the GOP uses a primary and the Democrats use caucuses

The Nomination Phase Long shot and established candidates  Long shots have little name recognition, have difficulty raising money and attracting media coverage, and are not expected to succeed  Established candidates have high levels of name recognition, access to money and media coverage, and are expected to do well

The Nomination Phase Money  Candidates in the nomination phase can qualify for matching funds  Increasingly, candidates are choosing not to accept these funds  Candidates need to have money in the bank prior to the first primaries

Early Fundraising in the 2000 Elections CandidateMoney Raised from 1/1/99 to 6/30/99 (in millions on dollars) Republicans George W. Bush Steve Forbes John McCain Elizabeth Dole Dan Quayle Gary Bauer Lamar Alexander Patrick Buchanan Alan Keys Robert Smith Democrats Al Gore Bill Bradley Source: “Money for the Presidential Campaign,” New York Times, 24 July 1999, A9

The Nomination Phase Media coverage  Media coverage is concentrated on the first few events  The media handicap candidates based upon their status

The Nomination Phase Momentum  Candidates who exceed expectations in contests that receive heavy media attention may be able to parlay their success into subsequent contests  Momentum is only relevant to long shot candidates

The Nomination Phase Frontloading  Increasingly, states are moving their contests earlier and earlier into the process  Frontloading works to the advantage of established candidates

The Interregnum What is the interregnum?  Due to frontloading, candidates are securing the process nomination very early  This creates an interim period when the nominees are known, but they have not been formally nominated

The Interregnum Consequences  The news media and the public largely ignore the candidates during this period  Resource disparities between incumbent and non-incumbent candidates  Allows candidates to position themselves for the general election