1. Campaign Season
Belief & Behaviors

2. How do people play a role in choosing the president?
Beliefs & Behaviors
Campaigns
How do people play a role in choosing the president?

3. Primaries
Beliefs & behaviors

4. Campaigns Primaries Primary
A single state, single party election where voters state their preference for that party’s nominee for an election
We have primaries for almost all levels of elections.
Primaries serve as a form of a run off to help us narrow it down to 1 Republican and 1 Democrat
People pay attention to presidential primaries and not much to others.

5. Campaigns Primaries Primary
This election is run by the party. They make the rules.
The state party organization makes decisions about the primary
Party members cast their ballot to show which candidate they prefer

6. Campaigns Primaries Primary
The primary decides how many “delegates” are awarded to the winning nominee
Some states give all the delegates to the winner, others split them up proportionally
Delegates are votes (like an Electoral Vote) but are also actual people.

7. Campaigns Primaries Primary Selects a nominee
Limits the choices of voters
Bring the party members together behind a candidate

8. Campaigns Primaries Delegates
People chosen to go to the party’s convention and officially cast their ballots for the candidate there
The people that go have been loyal party members for a long time, voting, campaigning, donating money
Making them a delegate is
a reward for their loyalty

9. Campaigns Primaries Primary Season
All states are scheduled sometime between January & June.
States at the beginning get the most attention
Delegates are awarded in each state, and the candidates try to collect 51% of all the delegates in the country

10. Campaigns Primaries The “Invisible Primary”
The months leading up to the first caucuses and primaries where the candidates raise money and gauge popularity
Candidates who raise money slower or come in low in the polls are likely to quit before the first contests or right after
This helps to narrow down the field before voting even starts

11. Campaigns Primaries New Hampshire Primary
New Hampshire always has the first primary. It’s in their constitution that their primary is a week before any other state’s first primary.
Candidates campaign in New Hampshire for months approaching the primary.
The media does hundred of polls, they use the NH Primary to predict the rest of the election

12. Campaigns Primaries New Hampshire Primary
The candidate that wins the NH Primary will likely get a lot of support in the following primaries
Voters are susceptible to the bandwagon effect. If someone wins early, they seem like a “winner” and more voters support them.
Many candidates will drop out right after this contest if they finished with a lower percentage of votes than they thought

13. Campaigns Primaries Super Tuesday
A Tuesday in February or March where many states all around the country hold their primary on the same day
Usually it’s around 12 primaries and sometimes as much as 20% of the country’s delegates are at state
Usually (not 2008 or 2016) after Super Tuesday, it’s already clear who the two nominees will be.

14. Campaigns Primaries Front Loading
A trend where states are moving their primaries earlier and earlier to try and get more attention
They get tons of media attention if they have one of the early primaries
They get more visits from the candidates because those primaries are seen as more important.
They parties may like this because they get to establish a front runner earlier

15. Campaigns Primaries Open Primary Closed Primary
Any one can choose which party’s primary they want to vote in on the day of the election
Only registered party members can vote in the election. They have to be registered with the party in advance
Increases voter turnout
Decreases voter turnout
More people participate, including moderates
Ensures that only loyal party members have a role in choosing the nominee for the party
Can lead to voter “sabotage” – members of the other party voting for candidates that would be easy to beat

16. Campaigns Primaries Nonpartisan Primary
Also called a “blanket primary”
All candidates are listed without their party identification
All candidates of any party participate in the same primary
Not used in presidential primaries – usually in local elections to narrow down the choices

17. Caucuses
Beliefs & behaviors

18. Campaigns Caucus Caucus Plays all the same roles as a primary
To compete, candidates rely more on a large organization and strategy
Also awards delegates for the convention
A much older way of choosing the party’s nominee

19. Voters discuss and debate the candidates before having an open vote
Campaigns
Caucus
Caucus
Party members meet in one place in their community (church, school, etc.)
Voters discuss and debate the candidates before having an open vote
If no candidate has a majority, the lowest is eliminated, and it the process begins again.
This goes on and on until one candidate has 51% of the voters in the place

20. Campaigns Caucus Caucus
Caucuses take a lot of time and effort for the voter.
Only the most die hard party members will participate in the caucus
Voters have been recruited by the campaigns to advocate for the candidates at each caucus meeting
Way fewer people are willing to do this, so less people participate in a caucus

21. Campaigns Caucus Iowa Caucus
Is the first presidential nominating contest every election cycle
Takes place a week before the New Hampshire Primary
Winning is important for bandwagon effect, but since it’s a caucus in Iowa, it rewards better strategy instead of overall popularity
Candidates often win this contest and do not go on to much success in the primaries

22. Campaigns Caucus vs Primaries Primary Caucus
Easy on voters. They come. They vote. They leave. Could be 10 minutes
Takes a big time commitment from voters. Could be several hours. They debate, vote, repeat.
Increases voter turnout
Decreases voter turnout
Gives voters complete control over who is the nominee
Gives party leaders and organizers a bigger role in choosing the candidate
Most states use this
Very few states do this, usually smaller ones

23. Campaigns
Beliefs & behaviors

24. Campaigns Campaign Campaigns
All about analyzing voter data and making predictions
Have to find the best ways to reach voters who can be swayed
Get to test the best ways to articulate your message

25. Campaigns Campaign High Tech Media Campaigns
Television is the main way candidates try to reach voters
Candidates are now almost entirely dependent on the media to reach voters
As of 2012, only 15% of Americans use the internet to find campaign material

26. Internet has changed candidate approach to fund raising
Campaigns
Campaign
Internet Fund Raising
Internet has changed candidate approach to fund raising
Howard Dean (2004) and Barack Obama (2008) shifted to online fundraising
If you can get small donations with little effort from average voters, it will end up matching donations of large donors
It’s as easy to raise $10 from 250 voters as it is to locate and recruit one big $2500 donor

27. Parties keep lists of people who have donated to candidates
Campaigns
Campaign
Direct Mail
Parties keep lists of people who have donated to candidates
New candidates use these lists to find voters who may donate to their campaigns
Still the most effective means of finding donors. Takes little effort & money, but does generate returns.

28. Campaigns Campaign Campaign Roles
Campaign Manager – oversees the entire campaign & staff
Fund Raiser – Researches, locates, and recruits people who will donate
Counsel – lawyer who oversees the compliance with FEC rules
Pollsters – campaigns make their own public opinion polls
Data Analysts – research all historical voting data to find potential voters
Volunteers – do the street level work of the campaign

29. Bigly Ideas
Beliefs & Behaviors

30. History Wrap Up Polling Process Straw Polls Exit Polls
Problems with Polls
Focus on these things: