Intergenerational Social Mobility in the UK Franz Buscha, University of Westminster Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton “The ONS Longitudinal Study - 40 years old and going strong” Royal Statistical Society, 3rd February 2015

Acknowledgements Funded under ESRC secondary data analysis initiative (round 1) Joint work with Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: RES-348-25-0004). Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Proportion of ONS-LS members for whom parental information is available Source: ONS-LS 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011

Estimating intergenerational correlation using the ONS-LS Parental Status Intergenerational correlation estimates, r Child Status Child age in cohort Child age in cohort Child age 10-16 1971 Child age 10-16 1981 1981 Child age Child age 10-16 1991 1991 Child age 30-36 Child age 2001 2001 Child age 30-36 2011 Child age 30-36

How to socio-economic position? CAMSIS Cambridge Social Interaction and Stratification Scale Derived from correspondence analysis of marriage/cohabitation frequencies Measure of occupational social status NS-SEC National Statistics Socio-Economic Status Occupation-based measure of social class based on employment relations Continuous service contract, salary based, career progression V Short-term/fixed contract to sell labour for wages based on time worked/output INCOME Not available in census Requires imputation from ‘donor’ data sets. Requires accurate income prediction models. Limited variables in ONS LS which are in potential donor surveys

NS-SEC Distributions 1971-2011

Absolute vs relative mobility Absolute = % of people reaching higher/lower social position than their parents Affected by changes in occupational structure over time E.g. move from agricultural/industrial to service economy in 20th Century But says little about inequality of opportunity or outcomes Relative = Adjusts for changes in distribution of occupation structure over time Speaks more to issues of equality than absolute mobility

Absolute mobility by year cohorts, 5 point NS-SEC scale

Relative mobility, 5 point NS-SEC scale

Relative mobility, CAMSIS correlations, age 30 to 36

We also looked at the impact of education reforms on social mobility

Absent fathers

Working Mothers

Discussion The ONS-LS is an excellent data source for social mobility analysis Our own results suggests that: There has been an increase in absolute mobility for women over successive cohorts. Rates now equal men. Mixed evidence on Relative mobility rates (fluidity) Increase for men using NS-SEC, stable for women using NS-SEC Increase for men and women using CAMSIS Stable for men and women using income mobility (constant flux) Notable variation in results from year to year There is no evidence that additional schooling causally impacted occupation-based social mobility

Future of the ONS-LS in mobility analysis? The ONS-LS still has a lot to offer on social mobility There is the question of getting a better measure of income included? Merging other administrative data sources? Determinants of; who are the upwardly, downwardly mobile, how do they change over time? Regional mobility? Mobility by ethnic group (Platt) / immigration status? 2021 will allow insight into the generation born in the 1990s.

Thanks for your attention