1. Educational Reproduction in the Czech Lands from 1916 to the Present: A Mobility Perspective Natalie Simonová Petr Soukup The analysis and its presentation are based on work carried out during a visit to the European Centre for Analysis in the Social Sciences (ECASS) at the Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex supported by the Access to Research Infrastructure action under the EU Improving Human Potential Programme.

2. Outline of presentation Aims & research questions Aims & research questions Absolute mobily analysis Absolute mobily analysis Relative mobily analysis Relative mobily analysis Related research-some results Related research-some results Conclusions Conclusions

3. AIMS & RESEARCH QUESTIONS

4. Aims of the analysis to show with the help of mobility analysis the development of educational reproduction in the Czech Lands from 1916 so far to show with the help of mobility analysis the development of educational reproduction in the Czech Lands from 1916 so far to give detailed insight on structural contexts, which formed chances on educational transitions in 3 main époques (before- socialism, socialism, post-socialism) to give detailed insight on structural contexts, which formed chances on educational transitions in 3 main époques (before- socialism, socialism, post-socialism)

5. General starting points in the beginning of 20th century the Czechs were the most educated nation among Eastern European nations, e.g. differences between the Czech and German society were negligible in the beginning of 20th century the Czechs were the most educated nation among Eastern European nations, e.g. differences between the Czech and German society were negligible after 1948 high degree of status inconsistency was taking place after 1948 high degree of status inconsistency was taking place after the fall of socialism relations between education, occupation and income strenghten again after the fall of socialism relations between education, occupation and income strenghten again i.e. after 1989 the association between education of parents and offspring should weaken i.e. after 1989 the association between education of parents and offspring should weaken

6. Conditions for educational reproduction formation it seems so far, that after the Velvet revolution educational reproduction doesn't decrease it seems so far, that after the Velvet revolution educational reproduction doesn't decrease individuals continuation to tertiary level is highly determinated by his previous choice of secondary school individuals continuation to tertiary level is highly determinated by his previous choice of secondary school educational aspirations grow noticeably (demand), as well as possibilities to study at secondary and tertiary level schools (supply) educational aspirations grow noticeably (demand), as well as possibilities to study at secondary and tertiary level schools (supply) process of Czech higher education's liberalisation is rather at its beginning, in comparison to Poland the CR has 10-year delay (Simonová, Antonowicz 2006) process of Czech higher education's liberalisation is rather at its beginning, in comparison to Poland the CR has 10-year delay (Simonová, Antonowicz 2006)

7. Research questions Is the Czech education system becoming more/ less open after 1989? Is the Czech education system becoming more/ less open after 1989? Are there any differences between men and women in their mobility patterns? Are there any differences between men and women in their mobility patterns? What mechanisms are hidden behind found inequality levels in all 3 historical periods? What mechanisms are hidden behind found inequality levels in all 3 historical periods?

8. ABSOLUTE MOBILITY ANALYSIS

9. Data and methods 9 data sets combined (TSS 1978, 1984, 1991; SIALS; SSVE; ISSP 1997, 1999; ESS 2004; Cohesion 2005), n = 41 460 9 data sets combined (TSS 1978, 1984, 1991; SIALS; SSVE; ISSP 1997, 1999; ESS 2004; Cohesion 2005), n = 41 460 variables = education of father, mother, respondent, respondent’s sex and his age cohort variables = education of father, mother, respondent, respondent’s sex and his age cohort 1888 to 1985 covered (by respondent’s birth) or 1906 to 2003 (by the year of 18 th birthday) 1888 to 1985 covered (by respondent’s birth) or 1906 to 2003 (by the year of 18 th birthday)

10. Development of net mobility from 1906 to 2003 1888-1920 1906-1938 1921-1926 1939-1944 1927-1930 1945-1948 1931-1950 1949-1968 1951-1971 1969-1989 1972-1985 1990-2003 Net mobility parent- daughter parent- son mother- daughter father- son 6,858,058,615,831,634,9 3,97,256,518,5533,332,2 1,32,42,96,118,0533,15 3,656,55,916,5532,138,95

11. Upward educational mobility for individual age cohorts

12. Downward educational mobility for individual age cohorts

13. Upward/ downward mobility ratio 1906 to 2003 1888-1920 1906-1938 1921-1926 1939-1944 1927-1930 1945-1948 1931-1950 1949-1968 1951-1971 1969-1989 1972-1985 1990-2003 upward / downward ratio parent- daughter parent- son mother- daughter father- son 1,262,122,02,871,470,83 9,448,912,292,931,210,56 11,5010,738,5713,234,331,87 10,6910,1914,93,471,661,0

14. Absolute mobility analysis conclusions total mobility increasingly formed by net mobility continues still after 1989 total mobility increasingly formed by net mobility continues still after 1989 educational system expanded with upward mobility prevailing until 1968, after 1968 stagnation and downward mobility increase educational system expanded with upward mobility prevailing until 1968, after 1968 stagnation and downward mobility increase educational opportunities have been weakening for both sexes after 1989 educational opportunities have been weakening for both sexes after 1989 upward mobility equal to downward mobility in men, upward mobility twice as big as downward mobility in women after 1989 upward mobility equal to downward mobility in men, upward mobility twice as big as downward mobility in women after 1989 women profit from the educational development after 1989 (twice as much as men), men stagnate women profit from the educational development after 1989 (twice as much as men), men stagnate

15. RELATIVE MOBILITY ANALYSIS

16. Relative mobility analysis log-linear analysis eliminates impact of marginal distributions (quantitative changes in the system) log-linear analysis eliminates impact of marginal distributions (quantitative changes in the system) aimed to find the model best accounting for correlations between education of parents, respondents and the cohort aimed to find the model best accounting for correlations between education of parents, respondents and the cohort conditional independence model, constant fluidity model and log-multiplicative model were compared conditional independence model, constant fluidity model and log-multiplicative model were compared the log-multiplicative model captured data structure best in all 4 cases the log-multiplicative model captured data structure best in all 4 cases Model: log(m abc )=λ a +λ b +λ c +λ ab +λ ac +Φ a λ bc, where a - cohort, b-parent education, c-child’s education, Φ-association parameter (for parent and child’s education)

17. Results of log-linear analysis of associations between mother’s (M) education, daughter’s (D) education and cohort (C), father’s (F) education, son’s (S) education and cohort (C), education of the parent with higher level of education (P), his/her child’s education (son and/or daughter) and cohort (C) Model Description L2L2 dfsig.BICdelta PC DC(PD) x Log- multiplicative model 57,315 0,0000 -91,9 0,0111 PC SC (PS) x Log- multiplicative model 14,715 0,4721 -132,5 0,0060 MC DC(MD) x Log- multiplicative model 31,415 0,0079 -117,5 0,0048 FC SC(FS) x Log- multiplicative model 14,915 0,4581 -131,8 0,0066

18. Coefficient of association* in log-multiplicative models in individual cohorts for boys and girls (20th century) * between parent and child’s education Note: Base (reference) category are sons born in 1901-1920 See next slide

19. Coefficient of association* in log-multiplicative models in individual cohorts for boys and girls (1931-nowadays) * between parent and child’s education Note: Base (reference) category are sons born in 1931-1950

20. Relative mobility analysis conclusions association between parent and offspring education exists and changes in time (for cohorts) association between parent and offspring education exists and changes in time (for cohorts) the association consistently weakened until 1968, cca to one half of the original value in all cases the association consistently weakened until 1968, cca to one half of the original value in all cases thus, intergenerational educational reproduction weakened thus, intergenerational educational reproduction weakened after 1968 till 1989 moderate strengthening or stagnation, after 1989 the same after 1968 till 1989 moderate strengthening or stagnation, after 1989 the same

21. RELATED RESEARCH

22. Results of other (related) studies I Odds according to gender and father's education Source: Simonova, Soukup: ISA RC 28 (Brno, May 2007) Sons of fathers with univ. edu. have the highest probability to get university education, while daughters of fathers with basic edu. the lowest.

23. Results of other (related) studies II Factors influencing child’s aspiration on university education Source: Mateju,Soukup, Basl : ECSR (Prague, September 2006)

24. CONCLUSIONS

25. Overall summary – answers to questions posed in the beginning Is the Czech education system becoming more/ less open after 1989? From 1949 mostly just in women. Is the Czech education system becoming more/ less open after 1989? From 1949 mostly just in women. Are there any differences between men and women in their mobility patterns? After 1989 upward mobility equal to downward mobility in men, upward mobility twice as big as downward mobility in women. Women continue to profit from the educational development after 1989 (twice as much as men), men stagnate. Are there any differences between men and women in their mobility patterns? After 1989 upward mobility equal to downward mobility in men, upward mobility twice as big as downward mobility in women. Women continue to profit from the educational development after 1989 (twice as much as men), men stagnate. What mechanisms are hidden behind found inequality levels? Educational system expanded with upward mobility prevailing until 1968, then stagnation and downward mobility increase. What mechanisms are hidden behind found inequality levels? Educational system expanded with upward mobility prevailing until 1968, then stagnation and downward mobility increase.

26. Thank you for your attention. Enjoy the rest of the day.