Prospects of creating a CDM project pipeline in the Philippines 3 rd Asian Regional Workshop on CD4CDM 23 rd March 2004 Siem Reap, Cambodia

Contents 1.Emissions inventory 2.Carbon mitigation potential 3.Renewable energy plans 4.LULUCF potential 5.Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline

1. Emissions inventory 1994 Greenhouse Gas Inventory

GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector

GHG Emissions from the Industrial Sector

GHG Emissions from the Agriculture Sector

GHG Emissions from the Waste Sector

GHG Emissions and Sinks in the LUCF Sector

2. Carbon mitigation potentials

CO 2 Emissions from Energy Sector (PEP 2001 – 2011)

Potential CO 2 Avoidance from Energy Efficiency Programs (PEP 2001 – 2011)

CDM POTENTIAL PROJECTS  Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)  analyzed mitigation of 12 Asian countries, including the Philippines  Philippine project priority areas:  energy  transport  agriculture  wastes

Source: ALGAS Philippine GHG Abatement Cost and Potential

MINDORO ISLAND-ORIENTAL 13,500 kW MARINDUQUE ISLAND 3,000 kW CUYO ISLAND 330 kW BUSUANGA ISLAND 330 kW PALAWAN ISLAND 9,000 kW LUBANG ISLAND 330 kW SIQUIJOR ISLAND 1,000 kW SPECIFIC WIND POTENTIAL POWER SITES CATANDUANES 2,250 kW TABLAS ISLAND 1,500 kW ROMBLON ISLAND 1,000 kW MASBATE ISLAND 3,000 kW DINAGAT ISLAND 3,000 kW POLILLO ISLAND 500 kW CASIGURAN 500 kW NORTHERN LUZON 120 MW BATANES 1,100 KW POTENTIAL CAPACITY: 160,340 kW

Solar Energy Resource Potential Average insolation of 5- 6 kWh/sq. m/day all throughout the country

3. Renewable energy plans Philippine Energy Plan Department of Energy

NPC Generation : 29, GWh Renewable Power Mix: 47% NPC Generation : 29, GWh Renewable Power Mix: 47% OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR 1 st Nine Months Y-O-Y NPC Power Generation NPC Generation : 27, GWh Renewable Power Mix: 45% NPC Generation : 27, GWh Renewable Power Mix: 45%

 Increase RE-based capacity by 100% by 2012  Be the No.1 geothermal energy producer in the world  Be the No. 1 wind energy producer in SE Asia  Double hydro capacity by 2012  New contribution of biomass, solar and ocean by 131 MW  Become a regional solar manufacturing export hub  Increase non-power contribution of RE to the energy mix by 10 MMBFOE within the next ten years RE POLICY FRAMEWORK Long – Term Objectives

2002 Target Add’l.2013 Capacity Geothermal 1,931 1,200 3,131 Hydro 2,518 2,950 5,468 Wind Solar, Biomass, Ocean TOTAL 4,449 4,698 9,147 RE POLICY FRAMEWORK 10 – Year Targets, MW

4. LULUCF potential

Potential CDM forestry projects 1. Reforestation and tree plantations could easily meet requirements for additionality 2. Agroforestry and community forestry greatest socio-economic benefits risks may be greater 3. Dendrothermal power plants Ipil-ipil fed power plants

“CDM”able Forest Lands CDM

Potential forest lands for CDM those the need to be permanently forested: critical watersheds, forest reserves, IPAS sites (4.6 M ha) degraded land areas: 3.5 M ha

Lasco and Pulhin, 2003 Example of Degraded Watershed

Imperata grasslands cover > 2 M ha

5. Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline

Potential projects Being considered by World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund Endorsed by the Philippine Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change Received “Letter of No Objection” from the Secretary of the Department of Environment & Natural Resources

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS Northwind Wind Power  Northwind Wind Power Project  Project site located in Bangui, Ilocos Norte  Total installed capacity of 25.5 MW  Estimated emission reduction potential of 76,218 tCO 2 e annually

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS Talisay Cogeneration Plant  Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane  Host facility is First Farmers Holding Corporation (FFHC)  Consists of 2 x 85 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg and 480°C and a single condensing steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 30 MW  Estimated emission reduction potential 54,457 to 133,466 tCO 2 e annually

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS Victorias Bagasse Cogeneration  Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane  To be located at the Victorias Milling facility  Consists of 2 x 160 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg & 480°C & a single back pressure steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 50 MW  Emission reduction potential 71,329 to 182,896 tCO 2 e annually

Maraming salamat!! Roberto C. Yap, Ph.D. Environmental Economist klima – Climate Change Center Manila Observatory Philippines Tel Fax