The Impact of African Science: A Bibliometric Analysis Scientometrics 102(2): (2015) Hugo Confraria and Manuel Mira Godinho (ISEG, University of Lisbon,Portugal)

Motivation Plenty of bibliometric studies carried out for the developed countries and for the emerging economies (China etc.) …BUT… Until a couple of years ago no up-to-date bibliometric studies for Africa Is it acceptable / suitable to carry out such analysis for Africa? Declaration stemming from the 2003 African Ministerial Conference on Science and Technology commits to: – “develop and adopt common sets of indicators to benchmark our national and regional systems of innovation” (NEPAD, 2003).

Implicit questions How much should Africa invest in science? (trade-off…) How (and where) to invest in science? Objective: not to provide direct answers, but systematic data and analysis

Previous Studies Science in the continent  dismal state (Hassan, 2002). Little scientific co-authorship found between African countries (Narvaez-Berthelemot et al., 2002). Research production in Africa  highly skewed across nations and disciplinary areas (Uthman et al., 2007). Some fields of science (e.g. health sciences) are internationally oriented and tend to attract more international funds, partnerships, and opportunities to publish in international journals (Tjissen, 2007). Output sensitive to political instabilities, being the impact higher when the scientific communities are small (Waast et al., 2010).

Methodology - Databases Analysis of publications in WEB of Science Journals indexed by: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI); Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI) The use of these DBs allows for easy international comparison Data covers 53 African countries, 2002 to 2011.

AnalysisIndicator Scientific productivity research output / GDP research output / population Specialization indexes RSI “Revealed Scientific Advantage Index” “Chi-square of sectoral specialization” Scientific Impact “Impact relative to subject area” Collaboration Network Analysis TOP10 countries that have more collaborations with each of the 13 African countries Regression WoS Pubs (02-11) X PCT Apps (02-11) Methodology – Metrics

Research articles output: Africa vs. global trends, Africa Southern Africa Central Africa Northern Africa

Research output of top 17 countries (>1%) countries Remaining 36

Top 25 African Universities ( ) %

Research performance relative to GDP and population, “Productivity” Research performance relative to GDP and population,

“Productivity” Research performance relative to GDP and population, Northern Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Africa WORLD 50% 59% 12% 21%

Top 5 African countries in 22 main fields

Top 5 subject areas, in African nations with more than 500 publications ( ), ranked by RSI COUNTRY Relative Specialization Intensity (Rank) SII SOUTH AFRICA Plant & Animal Science Environment/Ecolog y Social SciencesImmunologySpace Science EGYPT Pharmacology & Toxicology Materials ScienceChemistryAgricultural SciencesEngineering TUNISIA Agricultural SciencesMathematicsMicrobiologyPlant & Animal Science Biology & Biochemistry NIGERIA Agricultural Sciences Pharmacology & Toxicology Biology & Biochemistry Plant & Animal ScienceMicrobiology ALGERIA Materials ScienceMathematicsEngineeringPhysicsChemistry MOROCCO MathematicsGeosciencesChemistryAgricultural SciencesEnvironment/Ecology KENYA ImmunologyAgricultural Sciences Environment/Ecolog y Plant & Animal ScienceMicrobiology UGANDA Immunology Environment/Ecolog y Agricultural SciencesMicrobiologySocial Sciences TANZANIA Immunology Environment/Ecolog y Agricultural SciencesSocial SciencesPlant & Animal Science CAMEROON Agricultural SciencesImmunology Pharmacology & Toxicology MicrobiologyPlant & Animal Science ETHIOPIA Agricultural Sciences Plant & Animal Science Environment/Ecolog y Social SciencesGeosciences GHANA Agricultural Sciences Environment/Ecolog y ImmunologySocial SciencesMicrobiology SENEGAL MicrobiologyImmunologyAgricultural SciencesGeosciencesPlant & Animal Science MALAWI ImmunologyAgricultural SciencesClinical MedicineSocial SciencesMicrobiology ZIMBABWE Immunology Environment/Ecolog y Agricultural SciencesGeosciencesPlant & Animal Science SUDAN MicrobiologyAgricultural Sciences Plant & Animal Science GeosciencesClinical Medicine BURKINA FASO MicrobiologyAgricultural SciencesImmunologyEnvironment/EcologyPlant & Animal Science COTE IVOIRE ImmunologyMicrobiology Plant & Animal Science Agricultural SciencesEnvironment/Ecology BOTSWANA Environment/EcologySocial SciencesGeosciencesImmunologyAgricultural Sciences BENIN Agricultural Sciences Plant & Animal Science Environment/ Ecology MicrobiologyClinical Medicine ZAMBIA ImmunologyMicrobiologySocial SciencesPlant & Animal ScienceClinical Medicine MADAGASCAR Plant & Animal Science Environment/ Ecology MicrobiologyGeosciencesAgricultural Sciences LIBYA Pharmacology & Toxicology GeosciencesChemistryMicrobiologyEngineering MALI Agricultural SciencesImmunologyMicrobiologyPlant & Animal ScienceClinical Medicine MOZAMBIQUE ImmunologyMicrobiology Plant & Animal Science Environment/ EcologyClinical Medicine

Relative Specialization Intensity SOUTH AFRICA Plant & Animal Science Environment/ Ecology Social Sciences ImmunologySpace Science EGYPT Pharmacology & Toxicology Materials Science Chemistry Agricultural Sciences Engineering TUNISIA Agricultural Sciences MathematicsMicrobiology Plant & Animal Science Biology & Biochemistry NIGERIA Agricultural Sciences Pharmacology & Toxicology Biology & Biochemistry Plant & Animal Science Microbiology ALGERIA Materials Science MathematicsEngineeringPhysicsChemistry MOROCCO MathematicsGeosciencesChemistry Agricultural Sciences Environment/Eco logy KENYA Immunology Agricultural Sciences Environment/ Ecology Plant & Animal Science Microbiology UGANDA Immunology Environment/ Ecology Agricultural Sciences MicrobiologySocial Sciences TANZANIA Immunology Environment/ Ecology Agricultural Sciences Social Sciences Plant & Animal Science CAMEROON Agricultural Sciences Immunology Pharmacology & Toxicology Microbiology Plant & Animal Science ETHIOPIA Agricultural Sciences Plant & Animal Science Environment/ Ecology Social SciencesGeosciences GHANA Agricultural Sciences Environment/ Ecology ImmunologySocial SciencesMicrobiology SENEGAL MicrobiologyImmunology Agricultural Sciences Geosciences Plant & Animal Science MALAWI Immunology Agricultural Sciences Clinical Medicine Social SciencesMicrobiology ZIMBABWE Immunology Environment/ Ecology Agricultural Sciences Geosciences Plant & Animal Science SUDAN Microbiology Agricultural Sciences Plant & Animal Science GeosciencesClinical Medicine BURKINA FASO Microbiology Agricultural Sciences Immunology Environment/E cology Plant & Animal Science COTE IVOIRE ImmunologyMicrobiology Plant & Animal Science Agricultural Sciences Environment/Eco logy BOTSWANA Environment/E cology Social Sciences GeosciencesImmunology Agricultural Sciences BENIN Agricultural Sciences Plant & Animal Science Environment/ Ecology MicrobiologyClinical Medicine ZAMBIA ImmunologyMicrobiology Social Sciences Plant & Animal Science Clinical Medicine MADAGASCAR Plant & Animal Science Environment/ Ecology MicrobiologyGeosciences Agricultural Sciences LIBYA Pharmacology & Toxicology GeosciencesChemistryMicrobiologyEngineering MALI Agricultural Sciences ImmunologyMicrobiology Plant & Animal Science Clinical Medicine MOZAMBIQUE ImmunologyMicrobiology Plant & Animal Science Environment/ Ecology Clinical Medicine

All subject areas: Output vs. CXC (Impact), world

Collaboration Network of the TOP and 2011

Scientific Impact versus Collaboration Intensity ( )

Log publications vs. log PCT applications (per 10^6 population, )

Main Conclusions Take off from 2004 ( % WoS) SA + Egypt + Nigeria + Tunisia driving output increase SA + Egypt > 50 % and top10 countries about 85% However smaller countries growing faster Docs/GDP – On world average Docs/POP – Much below world average Specialization mainly in Agricultural Sciences (+ Related areas: Environmental & Ecology and Plant & Animal Sciences) and some specific health sciences (Immunology, Microbiology)

Main Conclusions “Academic impact” Impact rising from 2002 to 2011 Impact of Mozambique, Zambia, Mali, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Kenya > World average + IMPACT > Small scientific communities > High levels of specialization in few scientific disciplines > High levels of international collaboration > English language “Practical impact” PCT patents share below scientific share and declining Non linear dynamics between publication and patenting Science mainly related with education (capability building)