1. The Impact of African Science: A Bibliometric Analysis Scientometrics 102(2): (2015) Hugo Confraria and Manuel Mira Godinho (MERIT-UNU and ISEG, University of Lisbon)

2. Motivation
Plenty of bibliometric studies carried out for the developed countries and for the emerging economies (China etc.)
…BUT…
Until a couple of years ago no up-to-date bibliometric studies for Africa
Is it acceptable / suitable to carry out such analysis for Africa?
Declaration stemming from the 2003 African Ministerial Conference on Science and Technology commits to:
“develop and adopt common sets of indicators to benchmark our national and regional systems of innovation” (NEPAD, 2003).

3. Implicit questions
How much should Africa invest in science? (trade-off…)
How (and where) to invest in science?
Objective:
not to provide direct answers,
but systematic data and analysis

4. Previous Studies
Science in the continent  dismal state (Hassan, 2002).
Little scientific co-authorship found between African countries (Narvaez-Berthelemot et al., 2002).
Research production in Africa  highly skewed across nations and disciplinary areas (Uthman et al., 2007).
Some fields of science (e.g. health sciences) are internationally oriented and tend to attract more international funds, partnerships, and opportunities to publish in international journals (Tjissen, 2007).
Output sensitive to political instabilities, being the impact higher when the scientific communities are small (Waast et al., 2010).

5. Methodology - Databases
Analysis of publications in WEB of Science
Journals indexed by: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI); Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI)
The use of these DBs allows for easy international comparison
Data covers 53 African countries, 2002 to 2011.

6. Scientific productivity Specialization indexes
Methodology – Metrics
Analysis
Indicator
Scientific productivity
research output / GDP
research output / population
Specialization indexes
RSI “Revealed Scientific Advantage Index”
“Chi-square of sectoral specialization”
Scientific Impact
“Impact relative to subject area”
Collaboration Network Analysis
TOP10 countries that have more collaborations with each of the 13 African countries
Regression
WoS Pubs (02-11) X PCT Apps (02-11)

7. Research articles output: Africa vs. global trends, 1981-2011
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Central Africa

8. Research output of top 17 countries (>1%) countries
Remaining 36

9. Top 25 African Universities (2002-2011)%

10. Research performance relative to GDP and population, 2002-2011
“Productivity”
Research performance relative to GDP and population,

11. “Productivity”
Research performance relative to GDP and population,
Northern Africa
Central Africa
Southern Africa
Africa
WORLD
50% 59%
12% 21%

12. Top 5 African countries in 22 main fields 2007-2011

13. Relative Specialization Intensity (Rank)
Top 5 subject areas, in African nations with more than 500 publications ( ), ranked by RSI
COUNTRY
Relative Specialization Intensity (Rank)
SII 1 2 3 4 5
SOUTH AFRICA
Plant & Animal Science
Environment/Ecology
Social Sciences
Immunology
Space Science
0.36
2.57
2.27
2.05
1.95
1.92
EGYPT
Pharmacology & Toxicology
Materials Science
Chemistry
Agricultural Sciences
Engineering
0.24
2.09
1.66
1.65
1.58
1.41
TUNISIA
Mathematics
Microbiology
Biology & Biochemistry
0.26
2.45
1.62
1.32
NIGERIA
0.72
4.90
2.52
2.44
1.85
1.81
ALGERIA
Physics
0.82
2.47
2.40
1.67
MOROCCO
Geosciences
0.34
3.19
1.91
1.47
1.33
1.21
KENYA
1.26
5.18
4.23
3.90
3.06
2.46
UGANDA
8.24
3.11
2.34
2.33
2.17
TANZANIA
0.98
3.95
3.49
2.68
2.02
CAMEROON
0.44
3.41
2.67
2.42
2.30
2.18
ETHIOPIA
1.18
4.27
3.60
2.51
2.15
GHANA
0.99
5.22
3.64
3.13
2.49
2.32
SENEGAL
0.63
2.88
3.33
3.17
1.90
1.88
MALAWI
Clinical Medicine
1.30
5.13
2.56
2.53
2.26
1.70
ZIMBABWE
1.20
4.53
3.91
3.66
2.29
SUDAN
0.96
4.91
3.65
3.30
1.44
BURKINA FASO
0.91
3.38
3.00
2.19
COTE IVOIRE
0.77
3.82
3.79
3.78
2.60
1.82
BOTSWANA
0.97
3.56
3.42
3.15
2.96
2.20
BENIN
Environment/ Ecology
1.86
6.59
4.56
1.87
1.61
1.10
ZAMBIA
1.52
5.74
4.78
2.38
MADAGASCAR
2.04
5.64
5.33
3.09
1.63
LIBYA
2.14
1.54
MALI
1.27
4.60
3.81
3.34
2.25
MOZAMBIQUE
1.12
4.82
2.37
2.22

14. Relative Specialization Intensity1 2 3 4 5
SOUTH AFRICA
Plant & Animal Science
Environment/Ecology
Social Sciences
Immunology
Space Science
2.57
2.27
2.05
1.95
1.92
EGYPT
Pharmacology & Toxicology
Materials Science
Chemistry
Agricultural Sciences
Engineering
2.09
1.66
1.65
1.58
1.41
TUNISIA
Mathematics
Microbiology
Biology & Biochemistry
2.45
1.62
1.32
NIGERIA
4.90
2.52
2.44
1.85
1.81
ALGERIA
Physics
2.47
2.40
1.67
MOROCCO
Geosciences
3.19
1.91
1.47
1.33
1.21
KENYA
5.18
4.23
3.90
3.06
2.46
UGANDA
8.24
3.11
2.34
2.33
2.17
TANZANIA
3.95
3.49
2.68
2.02
CAMEROON
3.41
2.67
2.42
2.30
2.18
ETHIOPIA
4.27
3.60
2.51
2.15
GHANA
5.22
3.64
3.13
2.49
2.32
SENEGAL
2.88
3.33
3.17
1.90
1.88
MALAWI
Clinical Medicine
5.13
2.56
2.53
2.26
1.70
ZIMBABWE
4.53
3.91
3.66
2.29
SUDAN
4.91
3.65
3.30
1.44
BURKINA FASO
3.38
3.00
2.19
COTE IVOIRE
3.82
3.79
3.78
2.60
1.82
BOTSWANA
3.56
3.42
3.15
2.96
2.20
BENIN
Environment/ Ecology
6.59
4.56
1.87
1.61
1.10
ZAMBIA
5.74
4.78
2.38
MADAGASCAR
5.64
5.33
3.09
1.63
LIBYA
2.14
1.54
MALI
4.60
3.81
3.34
2.25
MOZAMBIQUE
4.82
2.37
2.22

15. All subject areas: Output vs. CXC (Impact), 2007-2011
world

16. Collaboration Network of the TOP 13
2007 and 2011

17. Scientific Impact versus Collaboration Intensity (2007-2011)

18. Log publications vs. log PCT applications (per 10^6 population, 2002-201)

19. Main Conclusions Take off from 2004 (2011 2.51% WoS)
SA + Egypt + Nigeria + Tunisia driving output increase
SA + Egypt > 50 % and top10 countries about 85%
However smaller countries growing faster
Docs/GDP – On world average
Docs/POP – Much below world average
Specialization mainly in Agricultural Sciences (+ Related areas: Environmental & Ecology and Plant & Animal Sciences) and some specific health sciences (Immunology, Microbiology)

20. Main Conclusions “Academic impact” Impact rising from 2002 to 2011
Impact of Mozambique, Zambia, Mali, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Kenya > World average
+ IMPACT > Small scientific communities > High levels of specialization in few scientific disciplines > High levels of international collaboration > English language
“Practical impact”
PCT patents share below scientific share and declining
Non linear dynamics between publication and patenting
Science mainly related with education (capability building)