1. The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 June 2015 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml

2. Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP GEFS Forecasts Summary

3. Highlights: Last 7 Days Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100mm over Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, western Cameroon, northeastern DRC, eastern South Sudan Republic and western Ethiopia, whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places of the central Africa countries. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, portions of southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin and northwestern Nigeria.

4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, portions of Nigeria and Cameroon, local areas in northern Congo-Brazzaville, eastern DRC, portions of South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, Uganda, many parts of Ethiopia, and local areas in Kenya. In contrast, portions of Senegal, western Mali, Guinea Conakry, Sierra Lone, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Benin, central Nigeria, parts of Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, much of Congo-Brazzaville, CAR, southern Chad, northern DRC, and local areas in South Sudan Republic received below-average rainfall.

5. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over much of Guinea-Conakry and Sierra Leone, Liberia, portions of Cote d’Ivoire, local areas in Ghana and Nigeria, much of Cameroon, Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, CAR, DRC, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, much of Ethiopia, local areas in Somalia, Uganda and Kenya. In contrast, portions of Senegal, western Mali, Burkina Faso, central Cote d’Ivoire, parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin, portions of Nigeria, southern Chad, Equatorial Guinea, portions of Congo-Brazzaville, local areas in DRC, portions of southern Ethiopia, and local areas in Somalia and Tanzania had below-average rainfall.

6. Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, central and southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, much of CAR, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, many parts of DRC, parts of Uganda and Ethiopia, Kenya, southern Somalia, many parts of Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and local areas in South Africa. In contrast, parts of Senegal, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, northern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, local areas in CAR, southern Angola, portions of Namibia and South Africa, many parts of Mozambique, Malawi, southern Tanzania, portions of Ethiopia, northern Kenya and much of Madagascar had below-average rainfall.

7. Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above-average over much of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Nigeria, many parts of CAR, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, much of DRC, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, Zambia, southern Malawi, much of Mozambique, portions of Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar. In contrast, Senegal, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, northern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Angola, Namibia, portions of Botswana, South Africa, many parts of Tanzania, northern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia had below-average rainfall.

8. Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected places reflects that moderate to heavy rainfall helped to sustain moisture surpluses over portions of Sierra Leone (bottom left) and northwestern Ethiopia (top right). In contrast, seasonal total rainfall continued to be below-average over parts of Nigeria (bottom right).

9. Atmospheric Circulation: Last 7 Days The 850hpa wind anomalies (left panel) featured moist easterly flow across the Greater Horn of Africa.

10. NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts Non-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 09 June – 15 June 2015 Week-2: Valid 16 June – 22 June 2015 For week-1 (left panel) and week-2 (right-panel), there is an increased chance for rainfall to exceed 50 mm over local areas in Guinea, southern Mali, southern Nigeria, Cameroon and western Ethiopia.

11. Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks 09 - 15 June 2015 1.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, portions of southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin and northwestern Nigeria: A narrow axis of anomalous lower-level convergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

12. Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks 16 - 22 June 2015 1.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over western Ethiopia: Anomalous lower level convergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

13. Summary During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, portions of Nigeria and Cameroon, local areas in northern Congo-Brazzaville, eastern DRC, portions of South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, Uganda, many parts of Ethiopia, and local areas in Kenya. In contrast, portions of Senegal, western Mali, Guinea Conakry, Sierra Lone, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Benin, central Nigeria, parts of Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, much of Congo-Brazzaville, CAR, southern Chad, northern DRC, and local areas in South Sudan Republic received below-average rainfall. During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over much of Guinea-Conakry and Sierra Leone, Liberia, portions of Cote d’Ivoire, local areas in Ghana and Nigeria, much of Cameroon, Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, CAR, DRC, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, much of Ethiopia, local areas in Somalia, Uganda and Kenya. In contrast, portions of Senegal, western Mali, Burkina Faso, central Cote d’Ivoire, parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin, portions of Nigeria, southern Chad, Equatorial Guinea, portions of Congo-Brazzaville, local areas in DRC, portions of southern Ethiopia, and local areas in Somalia and Tanzania had below-average rainfall. During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, central and southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, much of CAR, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, many parts of DRC, parts of Uganda and Ethiopia, Kenya, southern Somalia, many parts of Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and local areas in South Africa. In contrast, parts of Senegal, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, northern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, local areas in CAR, southern Angola, portions of Namibia and South Africa, many parts of Mozambique, Malawi, southern Tanzania, portions of Ethiopia, northern Kenya and much of Madagascar had below-average rainfall. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, portions of southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin and northwestern Nigeria.