1. Fifty Years of Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Diéry Seck
9 july 2018

2. 50 years after independence of most African countries: What is the economic record ?
What has worked, or not?
What were the opportunities?
What could happen in the next half century?

3. Study has 3 parts Economic and statistical record of all countries
Estimation of the very long term determinants of economic growth in SSA countries
Estimation of the long term trajectories of GDP of SSA countries

4. Part 1: Economic and statistical record over half a century

5. Statistics: 4 moments Average GDP growth Variability of GDP growth
Symmetry of distribution of growth
Density of distribution of growth

6. Table 1. STATISTICS OF GDP GROWTH OF OECD MEMBERS AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES, 1967-2016
Country Name
Average
Standard
Coeff. Of
Skewness
Kurtosis
deviation
variation
OECD members
2.814
1.708
60.7
-0.709
2.632
Angola
4.752
8.519
179.3
-0.815
3.942
Benin
3.669
3.030
82.6
-0.748
1.122
Botswana
8.595
6.275
73.0
0.611
1.602
Burkina Faso
4.591
3.125
68.1
-0.091
-0.945
Burundi
2.618
5.408
206.6
0.734
2.101
Cameroon
3.786
5.839
154.2
0.099
1.900
Cabo Verde
6.610
4.906
74.2
0.513
-0.386
Central African Republic
1.197
6.615
552.8
-3.769
20.998
Chad
3.976
8.804
221.4
0.298
2.712
Comoros
2.353
3.006
127.7
-0.179
2.683
Congo, Dem. Rep.
1.206
5.352
443.8
-0.598
-0.107
Congo, Rep.
4.424
5.671
128.2
0.658
2.490
Cote d'Ivoire
3.503
4.828
137.8
-0.187
0.284
Equatorial Guinea
15.825
28.354
179.2
3.139
13.486
Eritrea
3.784
6.586
174.0
0.623
1.695
Ethiopia
5.647
6.647
117.7
-0.847
-0.060
Gabon
3.960
9.858
248.9
0.875
5.243
Gambia, The
3.802
3.407
89.6
-0.004
0.177
Ghana
3.803
4.438
116.7
-1.245
3.227
Guinea
3.920
1.622
41.4
-0.985
3.052
Guinea-Bissau
2.706
6.874
254.0
-2.075
8.926
Kenya
4.663
4.123
88.4
1.719
6.756
Lesotho
4.764
5.831
122.4
1.120
5.627
Liberia
1.756
20.796
1184.3
1.964
12.662
Madagascar
2.015
4.159
206.4
-1.233
2.985
Malawi
4.101
4.792
116.8
-0.331
2.163
Mali
4.143
5.065
122.2
0.628
1.411
Mauritius
4.560
3.095
67.9
-2.386
11.644
Mozambique
5.610
6.963
124.1
-0.343
3.367
Namibia
3.496
2.920
83.5
0.504
0.822
Niger
2.330
5.912
253.8
-1.165
2.813
Nigeria
4.166
8.576
205.9
0.742
2.908
Rwanda
5.239
10.232
195.3
-2.677
17.830
Sao Tome and Principe
4.972
2.033
40.9
0.535
-0.823
Senegal
3.020
3.713
122.9
0.219
Seychelles
4.492
6.109
136.0
0.320
0.147
Sierra Leone
2.572
7.553
293.7
-0.193
3.593
South Africa
2.703
2.273
84.1
-0.318
-0.521
Swaziland
5.221
91.8
1.351
1.588
Tanzania
5.323
2.155
40.5
-0.569
-0.481
Togo
3.132
5.384
171.9
-0.352
1.891
Uganda
5.844
2.996
51.3
-0.809
1.675
Zambia
3.209
4.114
-0.502
-0.184
Zimbabwe
2.926
7.805
266.7
-0.248
0.727
Source of data: World Development Indicators, WB

7. Table 2. STATISTICS OF GDP GROWTH OF OECD MEMBERS AND SSA COUNTRIES
BEFORE AND AFTER INCEPTION OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS (SAPs)
( )
Country Name
Average
Standard
Difference
deviation
in averages
OECD members
3.636
1.625
2.056
1.404
-1.581
Angola
3.280
3.101
5.036
9.176
1.756
Benin
2.955
3.964
4.328
1.498
1.373
Botswana
12.916
5.451
4.607
3.894
-8.309
Burkina Faso
3.476
3.428
5.620
2.393
2.143
Burundi
4.297
6.066
1.068
4.156
-3.229
Cameroon
4.463
7.683
3.162
3.207
-1.302
Cabo Verde
5.279
2.759
7.121
5.428
1.842
Central African Republic
1.684
4.135
0.747
8.244
-0.936
Chad
1.935
8.447
5.861
8.705
3.927
Comoros
2.956
2.511
2.122
3.146
-0.835
Congo, Dem. Rep.
1.123
4.025
1.283
6.333
0.160
Congo, Rep.
5.883
7.047
3.078
3.496
-2.806
Cote d'Ivoire
4.140
5.544
2.916
3.966
-1.224
Equatorial Guinea
2.867
4.305
20.809
31.885
17.942
Eritrea
n.a
3.784
6.586
Ethiopia
2.394
7.013
6.773
6.126
4.378
Gabon
5.720
13.455
2.336
3.781
-3.384
Gambia, The
4.356
3.731
3.291
2.989
-1.066
Ghana
1.965
5.351
5.500
2.335
3.534
Guinea
4.484
1.116
3.833
1.670
-0.651
Guinea-Bissau
3.204
7.089
2.323
6.678
-0.881
Kenya
5.722
5.186
3.687
2.422
-2.035
Lesotho
5.647
8.076
3.950
1.948
-1.696
Liberia
-1.976
12.208
5.201
25.872
7.176
Madagascar
1.581
3.840
2.415
4.395
0.833
Malawi
4.029
4.113
4.169
5.341
0.140
Mali
3.447
6.153
4.759
3.748
1.312
Mauritius
4.595
4.650
4.541
1.760
-0.054
Mozambique
0.500
8.317
7.576
5.160
7.076
Namibia
1.202
2.774
3.177
Niger
0.655
7.132
3.876
3.910
3.221
Nigeria
3.156
10.322
5.097
6.426
1.941
Rwanda
4.480
5.178
5.940
13.250
1.460
Sao Tome and Principe
4.972
2.033
Senegal
2.166
4.819
3.809
1.944
1.643
Seychelles
5.326
7.351
3.722
4.545
-1.604
Sierra Leone
2.173
3.633
2.940
9.861
0.766
South Africa
2.943
2.527
2.481
1.986
-0.461
Swaziland
7.898
6.064
1.607
-4.736
Tanzania
5.405
1.640
5.317
2.190
-0.088
Togo
3.306
5.047
2.972
5.672
-0.333
Uganda
3.444
3.804
6.582
2.229
3.139
Zambia
1.621
3.740
4.674
3.895
3.053
Zimbabwe
5.136
6.252
0.886
8.510
-4.250
Source of data: World Development Indicators (WDI), WB

8. African economies before and after SAPs
Two equal periods: ;
All SSA countries except South Sudan

9. Table 3. GROWTH RATES OF PER CAPITA GDP OF SSA COUNTRIES
Country Name
AverageGrowth rate
Average Growth rate
OECD members
2.81
3.64
2.06
Angola
4.75
3.28
5.04
Benin
3.67
2.95
4.33
Botswana
8.60
12.92
4.61
Burkina Faso
4.59
3.48
5.62
Burundi
2.62
4.30
1.07
Cameroon
3.79
4.46
3.16
Cabo Verde
6.61
5.28
7.12
Central African Republic
1.20
1.68
0.75
Chad
3.98
1.93
5.86
Comoros
2.35
2.96
2.12
Congo, Rep.
1.21
1.12
1.28
Cote d'Ivoire
4.42
5.88
3.08
Equatorial Guinea
3.50
4.14
2.92
Eritrea
15.82
2.87
20.81
Ethiopia
3.78
n.a
Gabon
5.65
2.39
6.77
Gambia, The
3.96
5.72
2.34
Ghana
3.80
4.36
3.29
Guinea
1.97
5.50
Guinea-Bissau
3.92
4.48
3.83
Kenya
2.71
3.20
2.32
Lesotho
4.66
3.69
Liberia
4.76
3.95
Madagascar
1.76
-1.98
5.20
Malawi
2.01
1.58
2.41
Mali
4.10
4.03
4.17
Mauritius
3.45
Namibia
4.56
4.54
Niger
5.61
0.50
7.58
Nigeria
4.38
Rwanda
2.33
0.65
3.88
Sao Tome and Principe
5.10
Senegal
5.24
5.94
Seychelles
4.97
Sierra Leone
3.02
2.17
3.81
South Africa
4.49
5.33
3.72
Swaziland
2.57
2.94
Tanzania
2.70
2.48
Togo
5.22
7.90
Uganda
5.32
5.40
Zambia
3.13
3.31
2.97
Zimbabwe
5.84
3.44
6.58
Source of data: World Development Indicators (WDI), W B

10. Economic convergence of SSA countries towards OECD countries

11. Table 4. CONVERGENCE OF PER CAPITA GDP
Country Name
Ratio
OECD members
100.0
Angola
n.a
9.7
Benin
3.6
2.2
Botswana
3.4
19.6
Burkina Faso
1.7
Burundi
1.5
0.6
Cameroon
5.7
3.9
Cabo Verde
8.9
Central African Republic
3.7
0.8
Chad
2.4
Comoros
2.0
Congo, Rep.
9.5
7.6
Cote d'Ivoire
10.6
Equatorial Guinea
37.2
Eritrea
Ethiopia
1.3
Gabon
41.0
25.2
Gambia, The
2.7
1.4
Ghana
6.3
4.4
Guinea
1.9
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
4.0
2.9
Lesotho
3.5
Liberia
1.0
Madagascar
4.5
1.1
Malawi
Mali
Mauritius
25.0
Namibia
15.9
Niger
Nigeria
7.5
6.7
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
3.3
Senegal
6.2
2.8
Seychelles
20.8
35.9
Sierra Leone
South Africa
36.6
19.9
Swaziland
10.4
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
10.2
4.3
Zimbabwe
6.0
2.5
Note: Ratio is 3 year average of of country per capita GDP over 3 year average of OECD
members per capita GDP
Source of data: World Development Indicators (WDI), WB

12. Part 2: The very long term determinants of GDP growth

13. The controversy over determinants of growth
More than 60 candidate determinants and a lot of ideology: see the list

14. Estimation of the long term determinants of GDP growth: a cross-section model for 44 SSA countries
Inflation
Gross investment / GDP
Trade / GDP (Trade openness)
Initial income (Per capita GDP in 1980, convergence)
Population size (in 1990)
Landlocked

15. Regression of GDP growth on investment and trade opennes

17. Lessons for very long term cause of economic growth
Commit to high levels of investment and trade openness
Control level of inflation
More additional variables could be investigated but the model already explains 65% of the variation of GDP growth

18. Thank you.