© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Marlene A. Lee Senior Policy Analyst Domestic Programs 300 MILLION AND COUNTING Education and Workforce: The Critical.

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Presentation transcript:

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Marlene A. Lee Senior Policy Analyst Domestic Programs 300 MILLION AND COUNTING Education and Workforce: The Critical Links

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Technology has accelerated the pace of change and our country is transitioning to a knowledge-based economy. U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao, August 2006 Employment change in major industry sectors, 1990 to 2005 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics program.

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU The gap in unemployment rates between those with a bachelors degree and others is wider today than in Percent unemployed Note: 25 to 64 years for 1967 to 1997; 25 years or older for Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March Current Population Survey; and Wayne J. Howe, Monthly Labor Review (Jan. 1988).

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Across racial and ethnic groups, higher educational attainment accompanies lower unemployment rates. Percent unemployed, 2006 Note: Ages 25 and over. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Most of the new jobs projected for the future are expected to be filled by persons with some kind of postsecondary education. U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao, August 2006 Employment growth and net replacement by occupation, 2004 to 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Americas Dynamic Workforce 2006 data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program; Daniel Hecker in Monthly Labor Review (November 2005).

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU The demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change as the U.S. population composition changes. The labor force will age and… Percent distribution of U.S. labor force, by age group Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Mitra Toossi, Monthly Labor Review (May 2002); and PRB estimates from 2005 American Community Survey.

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU … is expected to become more racially and ethnically diverse. Percent distribution of U.S. labor force, by race/ethnicity Source: Mitra Toossi, Monthly Labor Review (May 2002). Projections not adjusted for 2000 census count

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Despite increased education achievement in the past 40 years, Hispanics still have higher dropout rates than non- Hispanic whites and blacks. Percent of 16- to 24-year-olds who were high school dropouts Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics.

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Compared to all whites and Asians, a smaller share of Hispanics, African Americans, and American Indians are proficient in reading by 4th grade. Percent of 4th grade students who are proficient in reading, 2005 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005 report from National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Similar racial and ethnic differences in math proficiency persist into the 8th grade. Percent of 8th grade students who are proficient in mathematics, 2005 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005 report from National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Even smaller shares of racial and ethnic groups are proficient in science by 12th grade. Percent of 12th grade students who are proficient in science, 2005 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005 report from National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Hispanics and African Americans are under-represented in the 2005 science and engineering labor force. Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2005 American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau).

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU The 2005 science and engineering labor force is younger than the labor force as a whole, but over 25% of S & E degree holders are expected to reach retirement age in the next 20 years. Percent in labor force and S&E labor force Sources: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey; and National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, Chapter 3.

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU The age and retirement patterns of science and engineering degree holders suggest that the science and engineering workforce will continue to grow, but at a slower rate. Percent of science & engineering (S&E) degree-holders working full-time, 2003 Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, Chapter 3

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Conclusions In todays labor market, workers with the proper educational foundation and technical skills have an employment and earnings advantage. Demand for workers with a postsecondary education will be even greater in the future as technological advances change work in technical and nontechnical fields. Because race and ethnic groups differ in their educational achievement, demographic trends in the labor force will affect the availability of workers with the needed education and technical skills. Growth of the science and engineering workforce will slow unless the representation of Hispanics and African Americans in these fields increases, and/or older workers delay retirement.