Transition Initiatives From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience. June 16 th Rob Hopkins. Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network

The Petroleum Interval

Peak Oil.

From Energy Watch Group (2007) Crude Oil: the supply outlook.

Oil Producers (98)

Post Peak Oil Producers (64)

Discovery peaked 40 years ago Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average

Production peaks follow discovery. ( You have to find it before you can produce it). Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

President Bush in Saudi Terry Moran: "What can you say to the king here to get those high oil prices down?" George Bush Well, I will say to him that if it is possible, your majesty, consider what high prices is doing to one of your largest customers..." Moran then asks whether Americans might expect a tougher approach, one in which we essentially say, "you owe us" for all we have done for you. Bush: "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do."

World Unconventional Production

Filling the Gap: the Unconventional Oils.

New Brazilian ‘Superfield’ Will require; equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truck equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truck pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick and cost $50,000 each drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick and cost $50,000 each `This is a very, very technically challenging environment where no one's ever done this, these discoveries are in very deep water, and once you get to the seabed they are very deep under the floor, with a layer of salt that is definitely a difficult barrier’

The Growth in Biofuels

The UK: The Widening Gap Source: DTI

Gas? UK Continental Shelf Annual Forecast & Import Requirement Source – National Grid

“The UK is a secondary priority. Like it or not, that is a fact”. Thor Otto Lohne, executive vice- president, Gassco.

...Climate Change; Far Faster than Expected. Spratt, D. (2007) The Big Melt: Lessons from the Arctic Summer of Carbon Equity.

Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)

Carbon Emissions

Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios 31 24

Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios “Techno-Markets” aka “Sustainable Development” “Burnout” aka “Climate Chaos” aka “Business as Usual” “Lean Economy” * aka “Powerdown” “Collapse” aka “Mad Max” aka “Easter Island” aka “90s Cuba/Russia” * per David Fleming

Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) climate engineering climate engineering carbon capture and storage carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading international emissions trading climate adaptation climate adaptation improved transportation logistics improved transportation logistics nuclear power nuclear power PLANNED RELOCALISATION local resilience local resilience carbon reduction carbon reduction consume closer to home consume closer to home produce closer to home produce closer to home play closer to home play closer to home decentralised energy infrastructure decentralised energy infrastructure the Great Reskilling the Great Reskilling localised food localised food energy descent plans energy descent plans local medicinal capacity local medicinal capacity local currencies local currencies PEAK OIL PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids coal to liquids gas to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations relaxed drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels massively scaled biofuels tar sands and non- conventional oils tar sands and non- conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling resource nationalism and stockpiling

Principle #1. Resilience. Totnes in the 1930’s… © Totnes Image Bank

George Heath. A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank

Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

Relocalisation “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

Principle #2. Visioning

#3. Inclusion #4. Awareness Raising #5. Psychological Insights #6. Credible and Appropriate Solutions.

UK: Totnes, Penwith, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud, Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton & Hove, Portobello, Scotland, Market Harborough, West Kirby, Llandeilo, Bro Dyfi, Whitstable, Marsden/Slaithwaite, Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight, Dunbar, Scotland, Ireland : Kinsale Australia: Sunshine Coast New Zealand : Waiheke Island, Orewa

The 12 Steps of Transition. Step 1: Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset.

Step Two: Awareness Raising…

Step 3: Lay the Foundations. Collaborate where possible Co-operation, not competition.

Working with Business Oil Vulnerability Analysis. Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses. Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group. Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow. Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce

Estates in Transition conference. June 11 th Working with Local Landowners.

Step 4. The Official Unleashing “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Step 5: Form Working Groups. Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing / Education / Transport

Step 6: Use Open Space Technology.

Step 7: Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

The Totnes Local Food Directory.

The Totnes Pound

Transition Tales

Step 8: Facilitate the Great Reskilling Skilling Up for Powerdown. Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning …

Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.

Great Reskilling courses. Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making... Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making...

Step 9: Build a Bridge to Local Government World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors Endorsed by Totnes Town Council Contributions to Local Development Framework.

Step 10: Honour the Elders.

Step 11: Let It Go Where It Wants to Go. Solar Water Heater Challenge. Solar Water Heater Challenge. The Totnes Renewable Energy Society (TRESOC) The Totnes Renewable Energy Society (TRESOC) Lending Library. Lending Library. NISP workshops NISP workshops TTT International Youth TTT International Youth Music Festival. Music Festival. Garden Swap Garden Swap

Step 12: Create an Energy Descent Action Plan. Start with a vision and then backcast Start with a vision and then backcast Incorporate Transition Tales Incorporate Transition Tales Base it on current planning documents. Base it on current planning documents.

New Zealand New Zealand Ireland Ireland Japan Japan National Scale Hubs Devolved Nations: Transition Scotland Network To support, network, encourage, support and train Transition initiatives across Scotland

South East Transition Initiatives South East Transition Initiatives An evolution from Transition Town Lewes and Forest Row An evolution from Transition Town Lewes and Forest Row Will initially take over supporting, inspiring and training Will initially take over supporting, inspiring and training City Scale – Transition Bristol Awareness raising 600 trees in ‘Virtual Orchard’ 12 Neighbourhood groups Regional Scale

Transition Islands Isles of Scilly, Man and Wight Isles of Scilly, Man and Wight Transition Training Run across the UK Training the Trainer Training Transition Talk Training

We’ve Been Here Before

...What Happened Then?

Now Available! “ The Transition Handbook : from oil dependency to local resilience ” published by Green Books, 6 th March 2008