1. 'Peak Oil and Transition Towns from Kinsale to Totnes and Beyond?' Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

2. The Petroleum Interval

3. Peak Oil.

4. Discovery peaked 40 years ago Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average

5. US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in 1930, Production in 1970 Peak to Peak - 40 years Peak Discovery

6. The North Sea Peak to Peak - 27 years

7. Russia Peak to Peak ~ 40 years Fall of Soviets

8. Production peaks follow discovery. ( You have to find it before you can produce it). Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

9. Chris Skrebowski Petroleum Review

10. Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves… Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

11. World Production Stalls.

12. No Spare Saudi Capacity… Source - EIA

13. And also… Oil Prices are rising and are very volatile Oil Prices are rising and are very volatile Geopolitical and climate risks Geopolitical and climate risks Falling discovery Falling discovery

14. Gas prices…

15. Indigenous Production Declines. Source: DTI Digest of UK Energy Statistics

16. The Widening Gap Source: DTI

17. Peak Gas? Source: UK Energy Review 2006

19. Exxon Mobil 4 New Saudi Arabias!

21. Who Said This? “A serious demand/supply discontinuity could lead to worldwide economic chaos”. US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves. We’re not good at recognising distant threats. Even if their probability is 100%, society ignoring this is like people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius”. James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of the CIA.

22. When?

23. The Hirsch Report “...the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking” (emphasis added) (Hirsch 2005).

24. Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness (Post Petroleum Stress Disorder)‏ Common Symptoms Include; Clammy Palms / Nausea Mild Palpitations A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions Fear Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism. Exuberant Optimism. “I Always Told You So” Syndrome.

25. Industrial Ascent (Modernism) Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution PollutionClimax (post-modern cultural chaos) ‏ Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Atlantis Great Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrs BP IndustrialRevolution Baby Boom Old Growth Forest Pre-industrial sustainable culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent ( Creative Descent (Permaculture) ‏

26. Visioning a World Beyond Oil. What would a post carbon world look like? What would a post carbon world look like?

27. 1930’s Visions of America’s Future

29. We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….

30. One Possible vision…

31. Convergence of Challenges Peak Oil Peak Oil Climate Change Climate Change Our dependence on China Our dependence on China Our crumbling social capital Our crumbling social capital

32. Vehicle Transport – are we asking the right questions? Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land. UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land. 800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.

33. Hydrogen? Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate; 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. From “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan

34. Relocalisation “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

35. UK Food Self Reliance. "National food security is neither necessary nor is it desirable." DEFRA 2003.

36. Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

37. The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba

38. Oxen Replaced Tractors

39. Rooftop Gardening in Havana

40. Your town in 2012?

41. Edible roofs

42. Adding the Trees…

43. Building - The Challenge of Peak Oil demands… Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space heating Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space heating Increased use of local materials Increased use of local materials New Local Economies New Local Economies An increasing resource base of local renewable materials An increasing resource base of local renewable materials Integration of renewable energy Integration of renewable energy The Great Reskilling The Great Reskilling

44. Creating New Local Economies Local Timber Local Timber New (?!) construction techniques to use the timber available New (?!) construction techniques to use the timber available Helps with management of local woodlands Helps with management of local woodlands Ben Law’s house, Sussex

45. Creating New Local Economies Cordwood Building Using round timber in an innovative and promising way Cordwood and Cob amphitheatre Kinsale, Co. Cork

47. Creating New Local Economies Hemp and Lime Can be used to build whole houses Very high insulation levels Suffolk Housing Society Hemp also makes a beautiful insulating plaster…

48. The Great Reskilling

49. Natural Retrofits…?

50. The Story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan Available to download at www.transitionculture.org

51. Kinsale Further Education College.

52. Step 1. Awareness Raising Talks, End of Suburbia screenings… Talks, End of Suburbia screenings…

53. Step 2. Open Space Community Think Tank

54. Step 3. Engaging Existing Practioners. Step 4. Visioning and Backcasting.

55. Action Plan – layout. Title (food, waste, etc…)‏ The Present The Vision Practical Steps 2005 – 2021 Resources

56. Some Suggestions from the Kinsale EDAP… A Natural Health Partnership A Natural Health Partnership Local economy Local economy Research on local building materials Research on local building materials Permaculture courses in schools Permaculture courses in schools Slow Food Town Slow Food Town Looking beyond Tourism Looking beyond Tourism Energy Independence Energy Independence

57. December ‘05 in Kinsale… Notice of Motion This council supports the efforts of the not-for-profit company “Transition Design” in its initiative to act as “Process Leaders” in Kinsale’s transition to a lower energy future and in developing the concept of a “Transition Town” i.e. a town making the transition from fossil-fuel dependency to a state of energy independence.

58. Are We Addicted to Oil?

59. Transition Town Totnes The Next Step…

60. Awareness Raising… Sept ’05 – Sept ‘06

61. The Official Unleashing… September ‘06 “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

62. Open Space Days. Food, Energy, Housing.

63. Oral History Interviews..

64. Learning from Totnes Past. 1930’s… © Totnes Image Bank

65. George Heath. A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank

66. Visiting Speakers… Sept – Dec ’06. Bob Flowerdew David Fleming Helena Norberg-HodgeRichard Heinberg

67. Working with Business. December ’06. Oil Vulnerability Auditing Workshop with Simon Snowden of Liverpool University A pilot project in Totnes with three local businesses.

68. Skilling Up for Powerdown. A 10 Week Evening Class. Covers; Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

69. Transition Town Totnes Subgroups…. Up and Running Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government In formation; Education, Housing.

70. Outcomes so Far… (after 4 months). Solar Water Heater Challenge. Solar Water Heater Challenge. Local Food Directory Local Food Directory The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO)‏ The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO)‏ World Café afternoon for Council representatives World Café afternoon for Council representatives ‘Seedy Sunday’ ‘Seedy Sunday’ Workshop with estate landowners. Workshop with estate landowners. Lending Library. Lending Library.

71. The Totnes Pound.

72. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”.

73. Other Transition Towns… an idea goes viral… Transition Penwith. Transition Penwith. Lewes Lewes Stroud Stroud Moretonhampstead Moretonhampstead Falmouth Falmouth Lampeter Lampeter Bristol Bristol

74. “The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of ‘oil independence’ and more the end of oil dependence.” “The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of ‘oil independence’ and more the end of oil dependence.” David Milliband.

75. "with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." "with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." Rep. Roscoe Bartlett

76. www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes