2. CAT : 30-Aug-08 Ben Brangwyn Transition Network Transition Town Totnes Peak oil, climate change and transition

3. Agenda Peak Oil and its effects Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change Climate Change PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” Responses at different levels Responses at different levels –global, national, local, personal What is a transition town What is a transition town Examples and achievements so far Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion Q&A discussion RESILIENCE RESILIENCE

4. Peak Oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil oil underpins oil underpins –industrial development –agriculture –economics –population about ½ way through it… about ½ way through it… it’s going to decline it’s going to decline

5. Peak Oil – a theory? 98 oil producers 98 oil producers

6. Peak Oil – a theory? Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

7. Peak Oil – discovery US discovery peaked in 1930s US discovery peaked in 1930s –production peaked in 1971 UK discovery peaked in 1975 UK discovery peaked in 1975 –production peaked in 1999 world discovery peaked in 1960s world discovery peaked in 1960s –production will peak in 20??

8. Peak Oil – official numbers EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration IEA - International Energy Agency

9. Peak gas for UK Source – National Grid Source – National Grid

10. UK Gov’t assumptions re oil price (2008) http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file46071.pdf “Middle” Scenario “High-High” Scenario

11. Peak Oil vs Peak Exports Oil producers getting richer Oil producers getting richer Developing their own economies Developing their own economies Middle East growth: 5-6% pa Middle East growth: 5-6% pa Russia growth: 7% pa Russia growth: 7% pa Increasing their domestic consumption of oil Increasing their domestic consumption of oil fuelled by subsidised prices fuelled by subsidised prices Less available for countries they export to. Like us … Less available for countries they export to. Like us …

12. Peak Oil – what’s it like? terminal decline terminal decline demand destruction demand destruction examples: examples: –1990s: North Korea –1990s: Cuba –2000: UK fuel crisis –Now: Poor countries

13. Climate Change – the end of the debate Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: Upsala Glacier, Argentina

14. Climate Change – the start of the feedbacks…

15. Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) climate engineering climate engineering carbon capture and storage carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading international emissions trading climate adaptation climate adaptation improved transportation logistics improved transportation logistics nuclear power nuclear power PLANNED RELOCALISATION local resilience carbon reduction consume closer to home produce closer to home play closer to home decentralised energy infrastructure the Great Reskilling localised food energy descent plans local medicinal capacity local currencies PEAK OIL PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids coal to liquids gas to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations relaxed drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels massively scaled biofuels tar sands and non- conventional oils tar sands and non- conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling resource nationalism and stockpiling

16. What can be done? Global Global –Oil Depletion Protocol –Contraction and Convergence –Kyoto National National –TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing) Community Community –Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural Personal Personal –“The work that reconnects” –self directed re-education –getting Gaia’ed

17. Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliament Unanimously passed motion Unanimously passed motion “…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008) “…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)

18. Transition, Peak oil, climate change, and Somerset CC 1. acknowledges the work done by communities in Somerset on Transition Towns and that the independence of the Transition Movement is key to its grass roots appeal. 2. fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities. 3. commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this initiative to help them achieve the goals they set for themselves as local communities. 4. therefore, requests the Scrutiny and Executive Committees to consider through the council's strategic planning process; –allocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Towns –requiring all directorates to support Transition Initiatives 5. seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK. 6. agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles of the Transition Initiative. (July 2008)

19. Can we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used Going up the energy slope, we used –ingenuity –creativity –adaptability –cooperation Going back down… –if we’re early enough –if we’re cooperative –the future could be a whole lot better…

20. What’s stopping us? (1) Dominant myths of today Dominant myths of today –Things are getting better –Economic growth is good –We must keep shopping –Technology will solve all our problems –There is no alternative –You can’t stop progress –Living standards are rising –Humans are selfish and greedy by nature –The market will solve it –We’re all doomed…

21. Where are we going? Industrial Ascent Energy useEnergy use Resource useResource use Environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation PollutionPollution Peak Energy? Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Post Mad Max Collapse Great Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom Pre-industrial culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent (Permaculture)

22. Changing the myth from…

23. Changing the myth to…

24. What’s stopping us? (2) Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinking Short term vs long term thinking –rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian Belief in authority figures Belief in authority figures –electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose –obedient children survive Sunk cost, or investment in the present Sunk cost, or investment in the present –“it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job depends on him not believing it” Optimism Optimism –an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

25. Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (1) Totnes Totnes Penwith (Cornwall) Penwith (Cornwall) Kinsale Kinsale Ivybridge Ivybridge Falmouth Falmouth Moretonhampstead Moretonhampstead Lewes Lewes Stroud Stroud Ashburton Ashburton Ottery St Mary Ottery St Mary Bristol Bristol Brixton Brixton Forest Row Forest Row Mayfield Mayfield Glastonbury Glastonbury Forest of Dean Forest of Dean Lostwithiel Lostwithiel Nottingham Nottingham Wrington Wrington Brighton&Hove Brighton&Hove Portobello (Edinburgh) Portobello (Edinburgh) Market Harborough Market Harborough Sunshine Coast, Oz Sunshine Coast, Oz West Kirby West Kirby Llandeilo Llandeilo Bro Ddyfi Bro Ddyfi Whitstable Whitstable Marsden&Slaithwaite Marsden&Slaithwaite Official Transition Initiatives

26. Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (2) Official Transition Initiatives Frome Frome Brampton Brampton Isle of Wight Isle of Wight Waiheke Island (NZ) Waiheke Island (NZ) Orewa (NZ) Orewa (NZ) Dunbar Dunbar Rhayader Rhayader Seaton Seaton Bath Bath Exeter Exeter Isle of Man Isle of Man Canterbury Canterbury Kapiti (NZ) Kapiti (NZ) Biggar Biggar Presteigne Presteigne Wolverton Wolverton Leicester Leicester Holywood Holywood Westcliffe-on-Sea Westcliffe-on-Sea Isle of Scilly Isle of Scilly Liverpool South Liverpool South Norwich Norwich Tring Tring Crediton Crediton Boulder, CO (USA) Boulder, CO (USA) Howe Howe Lampeter Lampeter South Pemberton South Pemberton

27. And who’s mulling it over? UK UK Ireland Ireland USA USA Spain Spain Italy Italy New Zealand New Zealand Australia Australia France France Israel Israel Canada Canada Mexico Mexico Norway Norway South Africa South Africa Sweden Sweden 700+ “mullers” Uruguay Uruguay Argentina Argentina Belgium Belgium Chile Chile Czech Republic Czech Republic Netherlands Netherlands Switzerland Switzerland Brazil Brazil China China Japan Japan Poland Poland

28. How are they organising? Transition Model Understanding: Understanding: PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” Adaptability, creative Adaptability, creative NOW NOW 7 Buts 7 Buts 12 Steps 12 Steps Transition Network Transition Network

29. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1) 1)we don’t have funding 2)“they” won’t let us – no enemies… apparently 3)turf wars with other green groups

30. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2) 4)no one cares about the environment 5)it’s too late anyway 6)I don’t have the right qualifications 7)I don’t have the energy to be doing that

31. Transition Model - Step 1 Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset –atrophy –personal agendas –humility –stages 2-5 –reforms from subgroups

32. Transition Model - Step 2 Awareness raising Awareness raising –allies and networks –prepare community –movies –talks –events

33. Transition Model - Step 3 Lay the foundations Lay the foundations –other groups –existing projects –official bodies –businesses –collaboration

34. Transition Model - Step 4 Organise a Great Unleashing Organise a Great Unleashing –coming of age –powerful, passionate, informative, inspirational –timing –content –making connections

35. Transition Model - Step 5 Form “working groups” Form “working groups” –starting new groups –bringing in existing groups –guidelines –training –working groups and the steering group

36. Transition Model - Step 6 Use “Open Space” Use “Open Space” –shouldn’t work! –one long coffee break –World Café Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future

37. Transition Model - Step 7 Develop visible practical manifestations of your project Develop visible practical manifestations of your project –not a talking shop –chose carefully –lure in fence-sitters –team building potential –getting dirt under your fingernails

38. Transition Model - Step 8 Facilitate the Great Reskilling Facilitate the Great Reskilling –Grandma, what was it like when you were a kid? –repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…) –eg WWOOFing

39. Transition Model - Step 9 Build bridges to Local Government Build bridges to Local Government –becomes crucial –don’t wait too long… –open door –Community Development Plan –elections…!

40. Transition Model - Step 10 Honour the Elders Honour the Elders –elders as a community resource –1930 to 1960 – moving from oil scarcity to abundance –oral history –community infrastructure –not about going backwards

41. Transition Model - Step 11 Let it go where it wants to go… Let it go where it wants to go… –focus on the questions –unleash the community –any sense of control is illusory

42. Transition Model - Step 12 Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan –assess current situation –create 15-20 year vision for all key areas –integrate with community plan if possible –identify steps needed to get there –start the work

43. What have they achieved so far…? (1) Totnes 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events 10-week “skilling up for powerdown” course 10-week “skilling up for powerdown” course seed sharing days seed sharing days oil vulnerability auditing oil vulnerability auditing Estates in Transition Estates in Transition local food directory local food directory local currency (phase 2) local currency (phase 2) oral history archives oral history archives nut tree capital of Britain nut tree capital of Britain transition stories transition stories lobbying (food and sustainable building regs) lobbying (food and sustainable building regs) community plan engagement community plan engagement Totnes Renewable Energy Company Totnes Renewable Energy Company Lewes school workshops school workshops grow your own food courses grow your own food courses rug making course rug making course mending course mending course Lewes non-plastic bag Lewes non-plastic bag library books on sustainability library books on sustainability many events, talks and films many events, talks and filmsPenwith many films and talks many films and talks food and farming day with Soil Association food and farming day with Soil Association reskilling – composting toilets and reedbeds reskilling – composting toilets and reedbeds

44. What have they achieved so far…? (2) Brixton green mapping / urban agriculture project green mapping / urban agriculture project permaculture design course permaculture design course films and talks films and talks presenting to school boards on peak oil and climate change presenting to school boards on peak oil and climate change urban food growers network day urban food growers network dayBristol many films, talks and events many films, talks and events transition training 2-day course transition training 2-day course city orchard (central buying of trees for productive planting by individual homeowners city orchard (central buying of trees for productive planting by individual homeowners guerilla gardening guerilla gardening photo exhibition and competition of “living more, using less” photo exhibition and competition of “living more, using less” Stroud CSA, local food festival CSA, local food festival tool share tool share textile courses, visits to hemp manufacturers, fashion show textile courses, visits to hemp manufacturers, fashion show planning Stroud Hemporium planning Stroud Hemporium Heinberg meeting with council Heinberg meeting with council Transition “think tank” with local council Transition “think tank” with local council many events and talks many events and talks

45. Our choice… We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it. We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

46. Thank you Ben Brangwyn Transition Initiatives

47. Peak Oil – official numbers

48. Oil substitutes A year of oil = ? A year of oil = ? Source – the Oil Drum Source – the Oil Drum

49. Fossil Fuels, Carbon and Economic Growth

50. Transition Training Totnes: 18 to 19-Oct-07 Totnes: 18 to 19-Oct-07 –17 people (Birmingham, Lostwithiel, Exeter) Bristol: 20-Nov-07 Bristol: 20-Nov-07 London: Dec-07 London: Dec-07 Scotland? Scotland? Wales? Wales? North… North…

51. Cuba and food A U.N. food expert hailed Cuba as a world model in feeding its population, some 18 years after the collapse of the Soviet Bloc ravaged the island's economy and sparked widespread hunger. (Nov-07) A U.N. food expert hailed Cuba as a world model in feeding its population, some 18 years after the collapse of the Soviet Bloc ravaged the island's economy and sparked widespread hunger. (Nov-07) –Jean Ziegler, who has been the United Nations' independent investigator on "the right to food" since 2000, spent 11 days in Cuba on a fact- finding mission

52. Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor) Asia Asia –Nepal –Pakistan –Bangladesh –Sri Lanka –Philippines –China –India –Vietnam Africa Africa –Uganda –Zimbabwe –Ghana –Nigeria –Senegal –Kenya –Gambia –Philippines Americas Americas –Argentina –Nicaragua –Chile –Costa Rica –Dominican Republic Middle East Middle East –Iraq –Iran

53. Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re in Argentina) Argentina: Argentina: –worst energy shortage in nearly 20 years –collapse of both the power grid and the fuel supply system –electricity supplies have been severely curtailed, plunging entire districts into darkness and causing the layoff of industrial workers –shortages of compressed natural gas, which powers many Argentine cars and 90% of the capital's taxis, are common –can no longer meet peak electricity demand.

54. Climate Change – weather extremes

55. Climate Change – moral issue or personal interest? Some regions will be more affected than others: Some regions will be more affected than others: –The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes) –Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops) –Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation) –Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers) –coastal aquifers will be contaminated by sea water Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable: Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable: –Coral reefs, marine shell organisms –Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions –20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction Your town? Your town?

56. Peak Oil – addicted society (3) growth economics growth economics – debt – interest – confidence no replacement for oil no replacement for oil

57. Peak Oil – who’s peaked (1)? Top 20 - 85% of all oil extracted worldwide PeakedNot yet peaked 57% of world27% of world Russia, United States, Mexico, China, Norway, Canada, Venezuela, United Kingdom, Iraq, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Oman Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Kazakhstan

58. Peak Oil – who’s peaked (2)? AlbaniaCroatiaJapanSerbia ArgentinaCzech RepublicJordanSlovakia AustraliaDenmarkKyrgystanSouth Africa AustriaEgyptMexicoSpain BahrainFranceMoroccoSurinam BangladeshGabonMyanmar (Indonesia)Syria BarbadosGeorgiaNetherlandsTaiwan BelarusGermanyNew ZealandTajikistan BeninGhanaNorwayTrinidad & Tobago BosniaGreeceOmanTunisia BulgariaGuatemalaPapua New GuineaTurkey CameroonHungaryPeruUK ChileIndiaPolandUkraine ChinaIran ??RomaniaUSA ColombiaIsrael/PalestineRussia ??Uzbekistan Congo KinshasaItalySenegalYemen

59. Peak Oil – reserve “growth” OPEC in 1980s OPEC in 1980s – quota system – Kuwait jumps – others follow no change ever! no change ever! Kuwait back- tracking in 2007 Kuwait back- tracking in 2007 EIA report Nov-08 EIA report Nov-08

60. Peak Oil & Gas – ASPO estimates Regular Regular –peaked in 2005 Heavy oil, deepwater, polar and natural gas liquids Heavy oil, deepwater, polar and natural gas liquids –estimate peak around 2010

61. Peak or Plateau? Existing fields decline – 4.5% = Peak in 2015 Existing fields decline – 4.5% = Peak in 2015

62. Peak or Plateau? Existing fields – technology enhanced decline of 2% Existing fields – technology enhanced decline of 2% = Peak in 2018

63. Peak or Plateau? Existing fields - sharp decline of 8% = Existing fields - sharp decline of 8% = Peak in 2010

64. Peak Oil – official numbers

65. Peak Oil – official numbers (conventional oil)

66. Peak Oil – official numbers (unconventional oil)

67. Peak Oil – official numbers (all liquids)