1. Carbon Capture and Storage: What Does Integrated Assessment Modelling Analysis Tell Us? Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi Research Fellow Council on Energy, Environment and Water Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCs New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015

2. | 1 CEEW: addressing global challenges through an integrated approach

3. | CCS in Electricity in 2050 across models (striped bars) 2 Source: Clarke L, Krey V, Weyant J, and Chaturvedi V. 2012. Regional energy system variations in global models: Results from Asian modelling exercise. Energy Economics 34 (3), S293-S305

4. | Scenarios for policy analysis Reference scenario A two degree scenario with all technologies A no CCS scenario GCAM can analyze permutations of energy technology and climate policy scenarios 3

5. | Modelling Framework: Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Economy-Energy-Agriculture Market Equilibrium (Edmonds et al., 2004) 14 Global Regions Fully Integrated Explicit Representation of Energy Technologies Tracks 15 greenhouse gases Dynamic-recursive model Typically runs to 2095 in 5-year time steps Used extensively for energy and climate policy analyses conducted for DOE, EPA, IPCC, etc. (Clarke et al., 2007)

6. | Business As Usual Scenario 5 Coal, nuclear, biomass, and solar important in India’s energy mix Globally, natural gas to have highest share, followed by coal CCS will have no penetration unless there is a carbon price

7. | What happens under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario? 6 Nuclear energy (33%), solar energy (34%) and CCS (25%) become critical for India Globally it is CCS, followed by nuclear, wind and solar energy Global share of CCS in electricity increases from 2% in 2030 to 16% in 2040. Corresponding CO2 price is 44US$/tCO2 in 2030and 72 US$/tCO2 in 2040

8. | 7 Non availability of CCS means that global emission peaking year has to shift early Cost of mitigation and carbon price increases dramatically Absence of CCS increases cost by over 3% of GDP in 2095, if India wants to act to meet a 2 degree target What happens if CCS technology is not commercialized under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario?

9. | First order estimates of geological storage potential of CCS in GCAM (in GtCO2) 8 Coal Basins Depleted Oil Plays Gas Basins Deep Saline Formation On-shore Deep Saline Formation Off-shoreTotal USA59107 11614911819 Canada114 38 53 Western Europe022 3643101 Japan 3 4166110 Australia 12 265152429 Former Soviet Union 16256 272 China94417165842316 Middle East 53169 222 Africa 3978 90 Latin America 7.575451562 1614 Southeast Asia 3.7533 37 Eastern Europe12 13 15 Korea India01144341100 Total Global Capacity702475304,9521,3797,178

10. | Key Discussion Issues When does CCS come in as a big sink for carbon globally?: Only beyond 2030, when technology cost declines and carbon price increases Shift in peak emissions: When no CCS, higher mitigation to be done in the near term BioCCS?: Global versus domestic potential of bioenergy KEY CONCLUSION: NO TECHNOLOGY SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE MITIGATION PORTFOLIO FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF COST EFFECTIVENESS! STORAGE POTENTIAL AND COST CURVES NEEDED FROM INDIA. CCS READY PLANTS IMPORTANT. 9

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