1. Building sustainable local economies in a carbon-restrained, energy lean world. Cylch Conference October 25 th 2007. Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

2. The Petroleum Interval

5. Peak Oil.

6. Oil Producers (98) www.lastoilshock.com

7. Post Peak Oil Producers (64) www.lastoilshock.com

8. Discovery peaked 40 years ago Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average

9. World Production Stalls.

10. Filling the Gap: the Unconventional Oils.

12. Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios 31 24

13. Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios “Techno-Markets” aka “Sustainable Development” “Burnout” aka “Climate Chaos” aka “Business as Usual” “Lean Economy” * aka “Powerdown” “Collapse” aka “Mad Max” aka “Easter Island” aka “90s Cuba/Russia” * per David Fleming

14. Arctic Ice Melt...Far Faster than Expected...

15. Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern Report) climate engineering climate engineering carbon capture and storage carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading international emissions trading climate adaptation climate adaptation improved transportation logistics improved transportation logistics nuclear power nuclear power PLANNED RELOCALISATION (building local resilience) tradable energy quotas tradable energy quotas decentralised energy infrastructure decentralised energy infrastructure the Great Reskilling the Great Reskilling localised food production (food feet) localised food production (food feet) energy descent planning energy descent planning local currencies local currencies local medicinal capacity local medicinal capacity PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch Report) coal to liquids coal to liquids gas to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations relaxed drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels massively scaled biofuels tar sands and non- conventional oils tar sands and non- conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling resource nationalism and stockpiling

16. Resilience is not a New Idea. Totnes in the 1930’s… © Totnes Image Bank

17. Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

18. George Heath. A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank

19. 1981 2007

20. Relocalisation “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

22. Transition Initiatives – an idea goes viral.

23. The 4 Recognitions of the Transition Movement. 1. Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise 2. We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks 3. We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now 4. By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present.

24. Transition Initiatives. Kinsale (Ireland), Totnes, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud, Ashburton, Penwith, Ottery St. Mary, Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton & Hove, Portobello, Scotland, Market Harborough, Sunshine Coast, (Australia). Kinsale (Ireland), Totnes, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud, Ashburton, Penwith, Ottery St. Mary, Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton & Hove, Portobello, Scotland, Market Harborough, Sunshine Coast, (Australia).

25. England: Alton, Anlaby,Balsall Heath, Birmingham, Banbury, Barkingside, Barnet, Barnstaple, Bath, Beaminster, Belbroughton, Belper, Bentlawnt, Berkhamsted, Birmingham, Bollington, Bourton-on-the-Water, Bovey Tracey, Bradford, Brampton, Brentford, Brighton & Hove (now official Transition City), Brilley, Bromsgrove, Buxton, Cambridge, Canterbury, Carlisle, Chagford, Chalford, Cheltenham, Childs Hill, London, Chipping Sodbury, Cornhill-on-Tweed, Corsham, Cotesbach, Coventry, Crediton, Crewe, Dawlish, Daysland, Derby, Doncaster, Dunkeswell, Dunster, Ely, Emsworth, Essex, Exeter, Forest of Dean, Godmanstone, Grantham, Grasmere, Hadlow, Haringey, Headcorn, Hebden Bridge, Hereford, Holsworthy, Horfield, Bristol, Hull, Hulme, Manchester, Hungerford, Isle of Man, Isle of Wight, Jarrow, Kendal, Kenilworth, Kirkbymoorside, Lancaster, Leamington Spa, Leeds, Leicester, Liverpool, London, Lyme Regis, Maidenhead, Maidstone, Market Deeping, Market Harborough, Marsden, Merton, Milford, Newark South, Newbury, Newhaven, Northhants, Norwich, Otley, Oxford, Paignton, Peckham, Penryn, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Reading, Seaton, Shapwick, Sheffield, Shoreditch, London, South Brent, Street, Swanage, Swindon, Teme Valley, Thatcham, Thornbury, Tolleshunt D'Arcy, Tooting, Torquay, Torridge, Trafford, Trowbridge, Truro, Uckfield, University of East Anglia, Vale of Belvoir, Wantage, Wardington, West Mersea, Westcliff-on-Sea, Weymouth, Whitstable, Winchester, Winslow, Winster, Witney, Woking, Wolvercote, Wolverton, Wotton-under-Edge, Wrexham, Wrington, Yatesbury. Wales Abergavenny, Aberystwyth, Anglesea, Bridgend, Cardiff, Cardigan, Chepstow, Crickhowell, Cwmafan, Afan Valley, Drefach Felindre, Fishguard, Flintshire, Holyhead, Lampeter, Llandeilo, Llanwrtyd Wells, Machynlleth, Monmouth, Newtown, Newport (Pembs), Penrhys, Pontyclun, Presteigne, Rhayader, St Davids, Swansea, Ystradgynlais Scotland Aberdeen, Alness, Belhaven, Scotland, Dunbar, Dundee, East Kilbride, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Gorebridge, Lochwinnoch, Partick, Glasgow, Rosyth, Stirling, West Kilbride Northern Ireland Belfast Ireland Kinsale, Drimnagh, Dublin, Enniscorthy, Kildare, Inishlyre, Mayo Island Rest of World. Australia: Abbotsford, VIC, Canberra, ACT, Castlemaine, VIC, Darlinghurst, Sydney, NSW, Geelong, Surf Coast Shire, VIC, Jimboomba, QLD, Maleny, QLD, Melbourne, VIC, Uki, NSW, Windsor, NSW * Canada: St John, NB, Vancouver, BC * France: Paris, Chambery * Israel : Tel Aviv * Italy: Milan, Morbegno, Trento, Turin * New Zealand : Golden Bay, Hawkes Bay, Waiheke Island * Spain: Barcelona, Asturias * Sweden : Luleå * USA : Arlington, VA, Asheville, NC, Ashland, OR, Bellingham, WA, Mill Valley, CA, Point Reyes, CA, Putney, Vermont, Sandpoint, Idaho ("Panhandle Localisation"), Seattle, WA, Washington, WA “Mullers”

26. Transition Town Totnes

27. Awareness Raising… Sept ’05 – Sept ‘06

28. The Official Unleashing. September 2006. “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

29. Open Space Days. Food, Energy, Housing, Psychology of Change, Economics, Arts.

30. Oral History Interviews..

31. Visiting Speakers… Sept – Dec ’06. Chris Johnstone Helena Norberg-Hodge Guy Watson Paul Mobbs Bob Flowerdew David Fleming Peter Russell Aubrey Meyer Tony Juniper Molly Scott Cato Jerry Mander Richard Heinberg Penny Livingstone-Stark Chris Skrebowski Jeremy Leggett Patrick Holden Vandana Shiva Wolfgang Sachs Herbert Girardet Peter Lipman Bill Dunster Bob Tomlinson Andrew Simms

32. Working with Business. December ’06. Oil Vulnerability Auditing Workshop with Simon Snowden of Liverpool University A pilot project in Totnes with three local businesses.

33. The Totnes Pound

34. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”.

35. Estates in Transition. June 11 th 2007.

36. The Totnes Local Food Directory.

37. Transition Tales

38. Some other Outcomes… Solar Water Heater Challenge. Solar Water Heater Challenge. The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) World Caf é afternoon for Council representatives World Caf é afternoon for Council representatives ‘ Seedy Sunday ’ ‘ Seedy Sunday ’ Lending Library. Lending Library. NISP workshops NISP workshops

39. www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes

40. Surgery Session; The 12 Steps of Transition. Cylch Conference October 25 th 2007. Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

41. The 12 Steps of Transition.

42. Step 1: Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset.

43. Step Two: Awareness Raising…

44. Visiting Speakers… Sept – Dec ’06. Chris Johnstone Helena Norberg-Hodge Guy Watson Paul Mobbs Bob Flowerdew David Fleming Peter Russell Aubrey Meyer Tony Juniper Molly Scott Cato Jerry Mander Richard Heinberg Penny Livingstone-Stark Chris Skrebowski Jeremy Leggett Patrick Holden Vandana Shiva Wolfgang Sachs Herbert Girardet Peter Lipman Bill Dunster Bob Tomlinson Andrew Simms

45. Step 3: Lay the Foundations. Collaborate where possible Co-operation, not competition.

46. Working with Business Oil Vulnerability Analysis. Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses. Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group. Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow. Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce

47. Estates in Transition conference. June 11 th 2007. Working with Local Landowners.

48. Step 4. The Official Unleashing “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

49. Step 5: Form Working Groups. Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing In formation; Education, Youth, Transport.

50. Step 6: Use Open Space Technology.

51. Step 7: Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

52. The Totnes Local Food Directory.

53. The Totnes Pound

54. Transition Tales

55. Step 8: Facilitate the Great Reskilling Skilling Up for Powerdown. Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning …

56. Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.

57. Great Reskilling courses. Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making... Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making...

58. Step 9: Build a Bridge to Local Government World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors Endorsed by Totnes Town Council Contributions to Local Development Framework.

59. Step 10: Honour the Elders.

60. Step 11: Let It Go Where It Wants to Go. Solar Water Heater Challenge. Solar Water Heater Challenge. The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) Lending Library. Lending Library. NISP workshops NISP workshops Car Share Club Car Share Club TTT International Youth TTT International Youth Music Festival. Music Festival.

61. Step 12: Create an Energy Descent Action Plan. Start with a vision and then backcast Start with a vision and then backcast Incorporate Transition Tales Incorporate Transition Tales Base it on current planning documents. Base it on current planning documents.

62. Transition Training.

64. www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes