IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency Nuclear Power – current status and future development International Nuclear Conference "BULGARIAN NUCLEAR ENERGY – NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND WORLD ENERGY SAFETY“ 2-4 June 2011 Alexander V. Bychkov Deputy Director General

IAEA 22 IAEA and Nuclear Power “The Agency has a key role to play in ensuring that this expansion in nuclear power takes place in an efficient, responsible and sustainable manner. “…countries should be able to introduce nuclear power knowledgeably, profitably, safely and securely..” Yukiya Amano Director General

IAEA “The Medium Term Strategy ” A. “Facilitating access to nuclear power.” B. “Strengthening promotion of nuclear science, technology, and applications.” C. “Improving nuclear safety and security.” D. “Providing effective technical cooperation.” E. “Strengthening the effectiveness and improving the efficiency of the Agency’s safeguards and other verification activities.” F. “Providing efficient, innovative management and strategic planning,”

IAEA “Facilitating access to nuclear power” The Agency should respond to growing interest in nuclear power, both from newcomers and from countries with existing nuclear power programmes, with all stages of the fuel cycle. “Member States will discuss the development of multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle, including the possibility of creating voluntary mechanisms for assurance of nuclear fuel supply, as well as possible schemes dealing with the back-end of the fuel cycle.” The Agency should help Member States: to build capacities in nuclear science, energy systems analysis, engineering evaluations, project management and long term planning; to support innovations in all areas of nuclear power; and to assist throughout all stages of research reactor applications.

IAEA Structure of global electricity supply Global electricity generation in 2008: TWh Coal 41.0% Oil 5.5% Natural gas 21.3% Nuclear 13.5% Hydro 15.9% Biomass 1.3% Other Ren 1.5%

IAEA The Role of Nuclear Power in the Future Energy Mix Continued growth in global energy demand Energy security Price volatility Environment protection and climate change Nuclear power: Improved operations, good economics and safety record starting in the early 1990s In spite of economic crisis:  Prospects better than ever since the mid 1990s

IAEA Impact of a doubling of resource prices NuclearCoalNatural gas US$ per MWh Base costs Double resource costs

IAEA – From rising expectations to renaissance? 442 reactors in operation, up from 437 at the end of GWe total installed capacity, up from 371 GWe at the end of new reactors connected to the grid, up from 2 in 2009 and 0 in reactor shutdowns in 2010, and 2 in new construction starts; compared to 12 in 2009 and 10 in of 29 operating countries are considering expansion 2 “newcomers” ordered their first NPPs

IAEA Distribution of NPPs 9

IAEA 10 What will the renaissance look like? Take place mostly in countries that already have nuclear power Low projection: ~ 10 new countries by 2030 High projection: ~25 new countries by 2030 Just keeps pace with overall electricity growth Most of the growth expected in Asia

IAEA Fukushima…

IAEA IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety The IAEA and Director General Mr.Amano have proposed that an IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety should take place from June 20 to 24 in Vienna. The Conference goals: to make a preliminary assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi accident, to discuss ways of strengthening emergency preparedness and response to review nuclear safety generally.

IAEA IAEA DG Y.Amano about safety: Harmonisation of the many valuable safety instruments which we already have Regulatory bodies must be further strengthened The IAEA system of expert peer review missions could be strengthened and expanded Technological developments, such as the introduction of next-generation reactors with stronger reliance on inherent safety features, will be an important driver of enhanced safety in the coming years. The IAEA can play a key role in coordinating national efforts to promote ever safer nuclear energy technology.

IAEA Safety First Safety First, when countries review their existing nuclear power plants, when they build new plants, when engineer innovative new reactors. when countries contemplate introducing nuclear technology for the first time and when established users consider expanding their programmes. Safety First must also be our guiding principle as we examine ways of strengthening nuclear safety globally. The main driver of the enhanced safety is naturally the technology The main driver of the enhanced safety is naturally the technology

IAEA 15 Nuclear power landscape, May 2011 Operating Considering Expressing interest Negative Delaying

IAEA IAEA – LOW Projection history GW(e)

IAEA IAEA – HIGH Projection GW(e) history

IAEA World Reactors Distribution 189/12/2015

IAEA World Reactor Types 19

IAEA Proposed Nuclear Power Plants 20 The number of planned NPPs for construction is based on the low demand estimate consistent with the strategy of sustaining the nuclear energy utilization at the level of /12/2015

IAEA Classification of Nuclear Reactors 21 Many definitions 1.EPRI – Guidelines for developing Third Generation reactors 2.WNA - Definition of a Gen III reactor 9/12/2015 Gen IGen II Gen III Gen IV Generation I Early phase: Shippingport, Dresden, Fermi I, Magnox Generation II Most operating reactors: LWR (PWR, BWR), CANDU, VVER, RBMK, AGR Generation III Improved designs: ABWR, AP600, System 80+, EPR, EC6 Generation III+ Evolutionary design with improved economics: AP1000, EPR1000, ACR1000 Generation IV Highly economic, enhanced safety, minimize waste, proliferation resistant Gen III+

IAEA Summary of Gen 3(+) Attributes 22 EPRI: 1. Simplification 2. Design Margin 3. Human Factor 4. Safety 5. Design Basis Versus Safety Margin 6. Regulatory Stabilization 7. Standardization 8. Proven Technology 9. Maintainability 10. Constructability 11. Quality Assurance 12. Economics 13. Sabotage Protection and Good Neighbour WNA : 1.Standardized design 2.Simpler and more rugged design 3.Higher availability and longer operating life 4.Reduced possibility of core melt accidents 5.Resistance to serious damage 6.Higher burn-up, Burnable absorbers(“poisons”) 7.Incorporation of passive or inherent safety features 8.Designed for load-following 9.Harmonized licensing as designs are more standardized 9/12/2015

IAEA Advanced Reactors 239/12/2015

IAEA Advanced Reactors contd. 249/12/2015

IAEA IAEA Medium Term Strategy on “Technological breakthroughs and other unanticipated events will require adjustments between 2012 and The Agency will position itself to take prompt actions to seize the advantages of positive opportunities and minimize the adverse consequences of unexpected negative developments.”

IAEA Fukushima Potential Impact NPP design impact Assessment of NPP safety robustness (design margins) Improvements of safety systems Expanding the DBA list of events and designing against some classes of BDBAs or combinations of DBAs Various NPP design changes for operating NPP, particularly for new builds Operational impact Assessment and improvements of the operating procedures Assessment and improvements of the SAMGs, and implementation of more rigorous training Nuclear energy economy and strategy Review of NPPs design, construction, operation, and energy cost Increase of energy cost in general (from all energy sources – global effect) More stringent requirements for siting of NPPs Longer schedule for obtaining construction licence and EA approvals Weakening of commercial interest for some reactor types that do not prove to have enough safety robustness, or which are not adequately protected against severe accidents (or not enough passive features) 269/12/2015

IAEA WANO & WENRA - Regulatory Changes WANO sent a request to all operating NPPs to perform assessment of the station safety robustness against severe accidents WENRA issued a request to perform a “stress test” for all operating and new build NPPs Emphasize on rare severe accidents with high consequences Potential regulatory changes More stringent regulatory requirements for new NPP designs More stringent requirements for operating NPPs and those that are planned for life extension More stringent requirements for NPP operation and maintenance Less tolerance for noncompliance issues in NPP operation Additional activities by the international regulatory agencies (particularly IAEA, WANO and WENRA) leading to more stringent monitoring and assessment of NPP design and operation (periodic safety assessments) New regulatory requirements and documentation with higher expectations Reconsidering the event frequency range for DBAs and BDBAs 279/12/2015

IAEA WENRA Stress Tests Prescribed by the WENRA organization to evaluate NPP design robustness and safety margins against severe accidents Licensees requested to conduct stress tests until Sep 2011; European Commission will prepare final report by Dec 2011 Scope Initiating events conceivable at the plant state Severe earthquake Severe flooding Other extreme natural events, or combination of the above Consequential loss of safety function Loss of electrical power, including station blackout (SBO) Loss of ultimate heat sink (UHS) Combination of the above Severe accident management issues Means to protect from and manage loss of core cooling function Means to protect from and manage loss of cooling function in the spent fuel pool Means to protect from and manage loss of containment integrity 289/12/2015

IAEA Conclusions Nuclear energy is extensively used in the world today as reliable base-load energy Nuclear energy planning at the low level demand involves building of significant number of new NPPs around the world Highest rate of new builds is expected in Eastern Asia New advanced reactor designs known as Gen 3 and 3+ have emerged in recent years As a result of the Fukushima event in Japan, the advanced reactors will be subjected to additional level of scrutiny and design improvements and changes As a result of the Fukushima event, the regulatory requirements will become more stringent and demanding 299/12/2015

IAEA Thank You for attention