1. IAEA PERSPECTIVE ON THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER
A OMOTO, Director Division of Nuclear Power, IAEA
Presented by R I Facer Division of Nuclear Power, IAEA
Apologies that my Director is unable to attend. He sends his greetings to the meeting and wishes us success.

2. Historical perspective
History
Power requirements of developing countries
By countries had asked for advice on developing nuclear power
Today some 60 countries have shown an interest in nuclear power applications
But there are only 30 countries with nuclear power plants operating
Mr Sokolov presented much of the history on Monday.
!953, Eisenhower
1954 Fifty years ago this year UN General Assembly called for the formation of the IAEA
1955 First Geneva Conference
IAEA Statute adopted,
Agency formed to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace health and prosperity throughout the world
- encourage and develop the practical application of atomic energy for peaceful uses throughout the world
Today over 130 countries work with the IAEA on the application of nuclear technology Nuclear science is not the property of a few. But nuclear energy for power is limited to a few countries
About 60 countries have expressed interest in nuclear power plants, but only 30 countries have them

3. NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH NPP30 25 20 15 10
Initially rapid growth, by 1983 nuclear power plants operating on five continents
Many more interested at the time.
The same issues remain today, but why has there been no further development 5
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010

4. Energy use and standard of living
Energy relates to standard of living
To improve standard of living many countries need more energy availability

5. This shows briefly the disparity in energy availability
More than 1 billion people are without access to electricity.
Even where they have access they may have little infrastructure in which to use it
An even greater number rely on biomass as their sole energy source

6. Current Status 440 nuclear power plants 31 under construction
expansion centered in Far East and South Asia
18 of 31 under construction in China, India, Japan, N. Korea, S. Korea, Taiwan
20 of last 29 connections in Asia

7. IAEA Nuclear Energy Role
Nuclear Energy provides the core engineering, technological and management support to interested Member States
Three key objectives guide current work
Enhancement of capability
Enhancement of capacity
Improvement of public understanding
Where can IAEA nuclear energy Department provide assistance
Existing plants
Helping new countries to keep open the option for nuclear power
Helping to improve the public understanding of the arguments for nuclear energy

8. Future energy needs Electricity Desalination and Hydrogen production
Technical innovation
Improved Infrastructure and institutional arrangements
Nuclear can meet other needs, not just electricity
Innovation is actively investigated within the Agency,
technical innovation
infrastructure innovation

9. Sea-water desalination
Applications of nuclear energy
Sea-water desalination
Heat for industrial processes
and district heating
Hydrogen production
Nuclear Energy’s
potential
At present nuclear energy contributes a tiny slice of the potential that it could provide for the world’s energy needs.
Only a small part of the potential electrical use, and an even smaller part of the heat potential
Energy consumption by application

10. Innovation Technology Infrastructure development Improved designs
Improved fuel cycle and waste management
Infrastructure development
Liability
Finance and contractual arrangments
Safeguards and security
Fuel cycle agreements
Examples of innovation currently being considered

11. Issues for the future Economics Cost of externalities Price stability
Emissions, environmental impact, global warming
Price stability
Resource availability
National energy security
Issues that are recognised as needing to be considered
It is a competitive market, investors will demand a return on capital. Even Governments have to justify their decisions
Apart from Capital cost what issues are significant
Externalities
Price stability
double the cost of uranium and the cost of electricity from a nuclear plant is only slightly affected (check value from Press release)
double the cost of gas or oil and the cost of electricity increases by 40% or so.
Uranium is not limited in supply
Nuclear energy can support national security of energy supply

12. Market-based selection
Fair evaluation for sustainable development
Viability of nuclear power
1) sustainability in terms of long-term resources supply & environment
2) stable energy price
Deregulated electricity market
These viabilities sometimes
not properly
accounted for
Need for Fair evaluation
- Large uncertainties
- In order to alleviate
unnecessary burden
in the later generations
Market-based selection
Cost
Externalities
An example of how different concerns can influence judgement on nuclear power
The decision based upon short term return, or long term considerations.
Governments may wish to consider how they can ensure that externalities are considered in a commercial market
Power
Generation Cost A B C D
Power generation options

13. Future activities for IAEA
Support of operating reactors
Exchange technical knowledge and experience
Develop national capabilities
Modernise infrastructure arrangements
Modernise international institutions and legal arrangements for worldwide application of nuclear energy
The Agency will be involved in all of these.
This will not diminish the Agency’s attention to Safety, Security or Safeguards,
But to maintain the option for countries that wish to adopt nuclear energy the Agency will need to continue to be active in the field of Nuclear Energy

14. The future After fifty years nuclear is a mature technology
We look forward to
a growth in the application of nuclear energy for other applications, and
a spread of the number of countries using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes
50 years after Obninsk showed the way….

15. Future for the IAEA
We look forward to hearing suggestions about other ways in which the IAEA can contribute to the application of nuclear energy
Thank you for your interest