Climate change and energy security BIICL Annual Conference th June 2010 Professor Julia King CBE FREng Aston University Birmingham Member of the Committee on Climate Change

● Climate change: why are we worried? ● Global and national targets ● UK – energy use and climate change ● Energy security and climate change mitigation ● Conclusions

● Business as usual: a high probability of global average temperature rise in excess of 4 o, possibly as early as 2060 ● Europe 8 o warmer,12 o on hottest day ● North America 10 – 12 o warmer: Toronto, Chicago, New York, Washington DC ● Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes ● Rice yields down 30% in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia ● By % of the world’s population has less than 1000 litres of water per year that’s just 3 litres a day or a bath a month ● % plant and animal species at high risk of extinction ● Sustained global temperature increase of 2 o : 20 – 40% decline in rainforest The impacts of climate change

BAU: land with decreased crop suitability in 2100 Met Office 2009

Or…security implications of climate change Climate change Public health Migration and refugees Rise in extremism in badly affected areas Public discontent/ disorder Failure of critical infrastructure Communications and transport Strategic products and technologies International relations Energy security Uninsurable risks

The impacts of climate change Source: IPCC

● Climate change: why are we worried? ● Global and national targets ● UK – energy use and climate change ● Energy security and climate change mitigation ● Conclusions

Required global emissions reduction Required global emissions reduction of 50% GtCO 2 e emissions in GtCO 2 e in 2100 Required global emissions reduction of 50% GtCO 2 e emissions in GtCO 2 e in 2100 Why? Advances in science Actual emissions higher than forecast Why? Advances in science Actual emissions higher than forecast Assessment of damage Decision rule: keep temperature change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels Assessment of damage Decision rule: keep temperature change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels Global trajectories considered Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030) 3%/4% annual emissions reduction Global trajectories considered Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030) 3%/4% annual emissions reduction

Appropriate developed country/UK contribution 50% global reduction Burden share Alternative methodologies (contract and converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.) Equal per capita emissions: ̶ GtCO 2 e global total in 2050 ̶ implies tCO 2 e per capita Burden share Alternative methodologies (contract and converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.) Equal per capita emissions: ̶ GtCO 2 e global total in 2050 ̶ implies tCO 2 e per capita All GHGs Aviation and shipping included CO 2 e per capita gives a UK reduction of at least 80% by 2050

● In 2050 total CO 2 e per head needs to be 2.1 – 2.6 tonnes per annum ● A return flight to Los Angeles for 1 person 2.5 tonnes ● An average new car today (160g/km), driven 15,000km per year, emits 2.4 tonnes per annum So what does that mean?

Global CO 2 emissions Source: WRI (2006)

Global CO 2 emissions Source: WRI (2006) Energy emissions

How do we deal with global issues? ● Copenhagen, December 2009 ● 120 Heads of State ● Agreement to keep below 2 o ● No binding global agreement to reduce emissions ● But individual country targets ● now received from over 100 countries ● Potential to deliver 50% global reduction

● Climate change: why are we worried? ● Global and national targets ● UK – energy use and emissions ● Energy security and climate change mitigation ● Conclusions

The scale of the UK CO 2 challenge Committee on Climate Change October 2009 Energy emissions

Meeting required reductions Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Reducing heat emissions: Energy efficiency Lifestyle change Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) Biomass boilers CCS in industry Reducing heat emissions: Energy efficiency Lifestyle change Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) Biomass boilers CCS in industry Reducing transport emissions: Fuel efficiency Electric/plug-in hybrids Bio fuels (first vs. second generation) Reducing transport emissions: Fuel efficiency Electric/plug-in hybrids Bio fuels (first vs. second generation) Application of power to transport and heat

Power generation to 2050 Power sector decarbonisation Emissions intensity to 2050

UK electricity installed capacity DECC 2009

UK electricity generation DECC 2009

Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020 CCC 2009 Generating capacityGenerating mix By 2020: Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total 3 new nuclear plants CCS demonstration plants

UK emissions emissions International aviation & shipping* UK non-CO 2 GHGs Other CO 2 Industry (heat & industrial processes) Residential & Commercial heat Domestic transport Electricity Generation * bunker fuels basis 695 Mt CO 2 e Non-energy emissions Oil Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity, Renewables Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity, Renewables Oil, Renewables Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Renewables

● Climate change: why are we worried? ● Global and national targets ● UK – energy use and climate change ● Energy security and climate change mitigation ● Conclusions

Energy security ● Physical security: avoiding involuntary interruptions to supply ● Price security: avoiding spikes and providing energy at reasonable prices to consumers ● Geopolitical security: ensuring the UK retains independence in foreign policy by avoiding dependence for energy on particular nations DECC EMO 2008

Primary energy supply in the UK Global energy supplies DECC Energy Indicators

UK energy supply ● 2007 net importer – 20% of energy supply ● Crude oil: net imports of 7.5% of consumption ● Gas: 21% imported ● Coal: 72% imported ● 2025 increasing levels of imports: ● Crude oil: 61% imported ● Gas: 63% imported ● Coal: predictions less clear ● 2050 continuing upward trend in % imported

Where will our energy come from? IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 By 2030 world energy demand will be up by 45% Fossil fuels sourced from less stable areas of the world

Some key import routes and suppliers for the future ● Oil and Gas ● Strait of Hormuz ● Suez Canal ● …. ● Gas ● Russia ● Turkey ● Coal ● Russia Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity

Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020 CCC 2009 Generating capacityGenerating mix By 2020: Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total 3 new nuclear plants CCS demonstration plants

Meeting required reductions Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Reducing heat emissions: Energy efficiency Lifestyle change Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) Biomass boilers CCS in industry Reducing heat emissions: Energy efficiency Lifestyle change Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) Biomass boilers CCS in industry Reducing transport emissions: Fuel efficiency Electric/plug-in hybrids Bio fuels (first vs. second generation) Reducing transport emissions: Fuel efficiency Electric/plug-in hybrids Bio fuels (first vs. second generation) Application of power to transport and heat

More radical renewables and nuclear strategies are feasible CCC 2009 High feasible scenario for operational wind: 39% of generation Severn barrage 8.6MW: 10% of generation ………..

Existing low carbon electricity markets CCC 2009

● Climate change: why are we worried? ● Global and national targets ● UK – energy use and climate change ● Energy security and climate change mitigation ● Conclusions

Conclusions ● Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity and increased global insecurity and instability ● Climate change mitigation → increasing energy security and global stability ● Security, energy security, climate change impacts and climate change mitigation are closely linked ● Joined-up thinking and planning are required to ensure we address them together

UK path to an 80% or more reduction in Wind and nuclear Energy efficiency improvement Renewable heat Electric heat Electric cars/plug in hybrids % of GDP in 2050 Other renewable and CCS