Energy Challenges Dr. Robert MacKay. Outline Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing.

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Presentation transcript:

Energy Challenges Dr. Robert MacKay

Outline

Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing

Vostok Ice Core data

Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon.

Turning off all emissions (very unrealistic) will still leave atmospheric CO2 Levels at 350 ppm in the year 2110.

faster-than-ever.html

Global per capita emission have held steady for past 30 to 40 years. For the past 30 to 35 years emissions have been closely linked to population.

Global carbon emissions steady for first time since 1992 Drop in rich countries' emissions caused by recession in 2009 was nullified by steep increases from China and India

495 x10 15 BTU x 1054 Joule/BTU=5.11x10 20 J = 511 ExoJoules Average Power consumption in Watts = Yearly used/ (# of seconds in Year) Average 2007 Power Consumption =5.11x10 20 J/3.15 x10 7 s=16 TerraWatts

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

How much non-Fossil Fuel energy must be created in the next 25 years?

US Carbon emissions through 2008

Chinas carbon emission through 2008

Indias carbon emission through 2004

2008 emission comparison per country Us, China and India account for 48 % of world wide emissions

2008 emission comparison per country Top 10 countries account for 67% of global emissions. However all other countries contribute significantly

World Population

UNEP mid level projections

Fossil Fuel Reserves Oil

Fossil Fuel Reserves Natural Gas

Fossil Fuel Reserves coal

Fossil Fuel Reserves ~40 yrs Oil ~80 yrs Natural gas ~200 years coal

(BP)

In % of all energy worldwide came from fossil fuels

Wind energy generation is growing at about 30% per year

From The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity Science Vol 335, 6 January 2012.

Artificial leaves CCS (Carbon capture and storage)

Artificial Leaves 5/faux-tosynthesis-clean-energy-of- tomorrow/ 5/faux-tosynthesis-clean-energy-of- tomorrow/