1. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 1 > Vortrag > Autor External costs of future technologies Wolfram Krewitt DLR Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment Stuttgart presented by Andrea Ricci ISIS Roma NEEDS Forum January 28, 2008 Cairo

2. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 2 > Vortrag > Autor external cost assessment as an input to strategic energy planning needs to reflect long term innovation dynamics of relevant technologies energy policy decisions based on current technology characteristics might hinder the exploitation of future technology development potentials

3. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 3 > Vortrag > Autor NEEDS Research Stream life cycle approaches for the assessment of emerging technologies provide data on - technical characteristics, - costs - life cycle emissions - external costs for emerging electricity generation technologies with a strong focus on long term technical developments (time horizon 2050)

4. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 4 > Vortrag > Autor NEEDS approach to characterise future technologies Basic understanding in foresight studies: there is not just one possible future, but many. Dependent on how actors choose to act, different futures are possible, though of course not all of them will become reality. To cover a reasonable range of alternative future development options, three different technology development scenarios for each individual technology: pessimistic scenario: Socio-economic framing conditions do not stimulate market uptake and technical innovations. realistic-optimistic scenario: Strong socio-economic drivers support dynamic market uptake and continuous technology development. It is very likely that the respective technology gains relevance on the global electricity market. very optimistic scenario: A technological breakthrough makes the respective technology on the long term a leading global electricity supply technology.

5. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 5 > Vortrag > Autor technology foresight approaches The individual technology scenarios are developed by combining a bottom-up technology oriented perspective with a top-down energy system perspective in an iterative way. The key driving forces which can help to activate diffusion factors and to overcome market barriers are identified. The assessment of future costs is based on experience curves. A complementary bottom-up approach is used, describing different sources of cost reduction, leading to cost estimates in a mid-term time perspective. Interviews with experts from both academia and industry are used to envision long-term alternative cost development paths.

6. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 6 > Vortrag > Autor examples two different solar technologies - photovoltaic - concentrating solar thermal power plants (CSP) coal combustion with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)

7. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 7 > Vortrag > Autor Resourcedirect and diffuse irradiation CapacityWatt to MW Installation:everywhere (roofs, etc.) Full load hours: 700 – 2000 h/a Reserve capacity: external Proven tech. lifetime> 20 years Annual generation in 2004 2500 GWh Cost of electricity (today) 0,25 – 0,50 /kWh direct irradiation 10 MW to several 100 MW flat unused terrain 2000 – 7000 h/a internal (fossil hybrid operation) > 20 years 800 GWh 0,13 – 0,22 /kWh Characteristics PVCSP Source: R. Pitz-Paal, DLR

8. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 8 > Vortrag > Autor Pessimistic: current incentives for PV will not be supported long enough for the technology to ever become competitive with bulk electricity. Growth of world PV market resulting from current PV funding schemes, severely stunted by 2025. Optimistic-realistic: three different PV families (crystalline Si, thin film, novel devices) are likely to co-exist, each expanding in its own most suitable sector. Growth according to industry (EPIA) predictions, after 2025 reduced growth rates (GP/EREC scenario). Very optimistic: - Market still growing until 2050 (yearly growth rate down to 4%) - By mid 2030s large scale energy storage infrastructure - Very rapid expansion of PV based on novel technologies after 2025 (technological breakthrough) 50% of total PV market in 2050 PV technology development scenarios

9. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 9 > Vortrag > Autor PV market development pathways Source: P. Frankl, NEEDS, 2007 optimistic realistic scenario pessimistic scenario

10. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 10 > Vortrag > Autor Innovation and environmental learning: life cycle CO 2 emissions of future PV configurations Source: P. Frankl, NEEDS, 2007

11. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 11 > Vortrag > Autor Concentrating solar thermal power plants Large scale grid connected electricity generation electricity generation today 800 GWh/y Several power plants under construction (Spain, US) thermal storage: dispatchable solar power

12. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 12 > Vortrag > Autor solar resources in the Middle East/North Africa region a solar thermal power plant of the size of Lake Nasser (Aswan) could harvest energy equivalent to the annual oil production of the Middle East

13. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 13 > Vortrag > Autor CSP – future development options

14. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 14 > Vortrag > Autor CSP – life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for various future configurations

15. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 15 > Vortrag > Autor fossil fuels – carbon capture and sequestration source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007 (adapted from BP)

16. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 16 > Vortrag > Autor pulverised coal combustion – current and with CCS source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007 (preliminary data)

17. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 17 > Vortrag > Autor pulverised coal combustion (current/CCS) – valuation of impacts based on Ecoindicator 99 source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007 (preliminary data)

18. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 18 > Vortrag > Autor external costs of future technologies (low estimate - no equity weighting. 2025 7 /t CO2 ; 2050 5 /t CO2 )

19. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 19 > Vortrag > Autor external costs of future technologies (high estimate – equity weighting; normalised to Western Europe 2025 86 /t CO2 ; 2050 52 /t CO2 )

20. Dokumentname > 23.11.2004 Folie 20 > Vortrag > Autor conclusions there is a large potential for improving environmental performance of current emerging technologies quantifiable external costs strongly depend on assumptions related to the valuation of climate change impacts depending on climate change valuation, external costs from fossil electricity generation might be significantly higher than private costs Carbon Capture and Sequestration can significantly reduce quantifiable external costs from fossil fuels, but CCS ranks bad on other evaluation scheme (EcoIndicator 99) future renewable energy technologies show very low quantifiable external costs