1. Climate-Change Science and NAS Activities Consortium for Ocean Leadership Washington, D.C. October 15, 2009 Ralph J. Cicerone, President National Academy of Sciences

2. 237 105 342 68 169 390 327 90 16 H 2 O, CO 2, O 3 Earth receives visible light from hot Sun and Earth radiates to space as a blackbody at infrared wavelengths

3. Calculating the Surface Temperatures of Planets for Venus Actual T e = 730KWRONG! Greenhouse effect and clouds, high pressure S(1 -  e  for Earth, S = 1368 W/m 2,  = 0.3, so we calculate T e = 255K (- 18 ºC or - 32 ºF)WRONG ! Greenhouse effect & clouds are needed for Mars T e = 240 to 250K (large day/night swings) OK Greenhouse effect is very small, low pressure WRONG ! OK ! Visible Infrared

4. www.scrippsco2.ucsd.edu

5. Global CO 2 Emission Estimates 1750 - 2005 CITE AS: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2007. Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. http://cdiac.ornl.gov

6. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption by Source (in billion metric tons C) Petroleum 0.70 Coal 0.58 Natural Gas 0.32 Source: LLNL 2006; data is based on EIA-DOE 2006b. University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Department of Energy

7. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption by Usage (in billion metric tons C) Electricity Generation 0.63 Industrial 0.33 Light-Duty Vehicles 0.29 Residential 0.09 Commercial 0.06 Freight/ Other 0.13 Aircraft 0.06 Source: LLNL 2006; data is based on EIA-DOE 2006b. University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Department of Energy

9. GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean. Hansen and Lebedeff (1987), updated January 2009 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

10. Source : University of Colorado, Boulder http://sealevel.colorado.edu

11. Figure 1. Time series of ice mass changes for the Greenland ice sheet estimated from GRACE monthly mass solutions for the period from April 2002 to February 2009. The best-fitting quadratic trend is shown (green line). VELICOGNA 2009

12. Figure 2. Time series of ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheet estimated from GRACE monthly mass solutions for the period from April 2002 to February 2009. The best-fitting quadratic trend is shown (green line). VELICOGNA 2009

13. GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.

14. Frohlich and Lean (2005): Recent analyses of satellite measurements do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance (the amount of energy received by the sun)

15. Solar irradiance through September 2008. Reference: Fröhlich, C. and J. Lean, Astron. Astrophys. Rev., 12, pp. 273--320, 2004. http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant

16. World Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2030 Quadrillion Btu HistoryProjections 207 244 284 308 347 365 398 463 511 559 607 654 702 Sources: History 1970-1975: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database, April 22, 2008. History, 1980-2005: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2005 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea). Projections: International Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0484(2007) (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo).

17. Increase in coal-fired electric power Coal-fired capacity, GWe, 2003 & USEIA projection USA China India World 2003 310 239 67 1120 2010 319 348 95 1300 2020 345 531 140 1600 2030 457 785 161 2000 Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006 World coal-electric capacity goes up ~900 GWe by 2030, and 640 GWe of the increase is in China and India. 478 756 1034 & 2008

18. Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation = Reduce Pace and Amount of Climate Change Caused by Humans Adaptation = Reduce Adverse Impacts on Human Well-being from Climate Changes that Occur

19. Pre-Industrial 280ppm 380ppm 425 ～ 440ppm Present Dangerous Level Global Carbon Cycle Management Anthropogenic Emission 7.2 GtC / y Absorption 3.1 GtC/ y How to control the tap to avoid risk industrialization CO2 in Atmosphere Ocean 2.2 Land 0.9 2ppm/y ex: 2.4-2.8 ℃ rise from PI Feedback Adapted from Nishioka, NIES, Japan

20. Oceans acidifying as well as warming pH history and “business as usual” projection Red line is global annual average; blue lines show ocean-to-ocean and seasonal variation. Surface ocean pH has already fallen by 0.1 pH unit. Projected additional changes are likely to have large impacts on corals and other ocean organisms that make skeletons/ shells from calcium carbonate.

21. America’s Climate Choices PL 110-161 (Dept of Commerce 2008) requested the NAS to: “investigate and study the serious and sweeping issues relating to global climate change and make recommendations regarding what steps must be taken and what strategies must be adopted in response to global climate change, including the science and technology challenges thereof.” For more information: americaclimatechoice.org

22. America's Climate Choices  23 members Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change  18 members Advancing the Science of Climate Change  20 members Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change  16 members  6 -10 Oceanographers

23. Guiding Questions Four focused panels are writing reports on: 1.What can be done to limit the magnitude of future climate change? 2.What can be done to adapt to the impacts of climate change? 3.What can be done to better understand climate change and its interactions with human and ecological systems? 4.What can be done to inform effective decisions and actions related to climate change? The panels will also provide input to the main committee on the next four questions …

24. Guiding Questions The Main Committee (with input from the panels) will write a final report that addresses: 5.What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate change? 6.What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be pursued to respond to climate change? 7.What are the major scientific and technological advances needed to better understand and respond effectively to climate change? 8.What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethical, intergenerational, etc.) to responding to climate change, and what can be done to overcome these impediments?

25. Science in the Federal Government – 2009 Presidential speeches and commitments Scientists in top positions new PCAST