1. International Energy Outlook:
The Future of Energy
Guy Caruso
Administrator
Energy Information Administration
RISK Conference 2008
Groningen University
Groningen, The Netherlands
March 6, 2008 1

2. Energy Information Administration
EIA was established by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977
Independent since its foundation
375 Federal employees and about 250 contractors
$90 million budget in 2007 2

3. EIA Products Data Collection Analysis Forecasting
EIA has about 80 surveys and data forms related to energy supplies and production, energy consumption, greenhouse gases, and finance
Analysis
EIA provides analyses that evaluate the impacts of regulation on energy markets
Forecasting
EIA provides short-term and long-term forecasts of energy markets for the United States and the world 3

4. EIA Customers Business/Industry (39%) Citizen (14%)
Research/Consulting (14%)
Finance (10%)
Academia (10%)
Government (9%)
Media (2%)
Other (5%) 4

5. EIA Impacts Energy Markets:
Natural Gas Markets Rely Heavily on EIA Weekly Data
Natural gas prices fell sharply when EIA released gas storage data at 10:30 AM on Thursday,
June 29, 2006
EIA’s release of its Natural Gas Storage Data has immediate impact on the natural gas market
NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Near-Month Futures Contract June , 2006; Bloomberg data 7/24/06. 5

6. Major Trends in the IEO2007 …
Total world energy use rises by 57 percent in the reference case projection.
The high world oil prices in the IEO2007 reference case are projected to make previously uneconomical, unconventional resources economical, and they provide 10.5 million barrels per day of the world supply by 2030.
Coal is the fastest growing energy source worldwide, increasing on average by 2.2 percent per year. Natural gas and renewables each increase by an average of 1.9 percent per year. Liquid fuels grow by 1.4 percent per year.
The Middle East accounts for substantial shares of the world’s total increase for liquids, 45 percent of the world total, and natural gas, 22 percent, through 2030.
Non-OECD Asia energy use, especially in China and India, is expected to more than double between 2004 and 2030 and will rely increasingly on the Middle East to fulfill its oil and natural gas needs.
Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for nuclear power generation, which is 14 percent higher in 2030 than in the previous outlook.
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030. 6

7. World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel)
$100
History
Projections
High Price
Reference
$59
Low Price
$36 7
International Energy Outlook 2007

8. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
History
Projections
34%
Liquids
28%
38%
Coal
24%
26%
Natural Gas
Share of
World
Total
23%
Renewables 8% 7% 6%
Nuclear 6% 8
International Energy Outlook 2007

9. World Marketed Energy Consumption (quadrillion Btu)
History
Projections
404
Non-OECD
298
240
OECD
207 9
International Energy Outlook 2007

10. Average Annual GDP and Population Growth for Selected Regions, 2004-2030 (percent)10
International Energy Outlook 2007

11. World Liquids Consumption, 2004 and 2030 (million barrels per day)11
International Energy Outlook 2007

12. Non-OPEC (Conventional)
World Liquids Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent)
118
Total
Non-OPEC (Conventional) 54 53
OPEC (Conventional)
Unconventional 10 12
International Energy Outlook 2007

13. Non-OPEC Producing Regions with More than a One-Million-Barrel-per-Day Increase in Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 13
International Energy Outlook 2007

14. OPEC Conventional Liquids Production (million barrels per day)14
International Energy Outlook 2007

15. World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030 (million barrels per day oil equivalent)
History
Projections
Other includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels. 15
International Energy Outlook 2007

16. World Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2008 (billion barrels)
World Total =
1,332 billion barrels 16
Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

17. World Natural Gas Consumption, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)17
International Energy Outlook 2007

18. World Natural Gas Production, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)18
International Energy Outlook 2007

19. World Natural Gas Reserves = World Cumulative Consumption,
World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2008, and Cumulative Consumption, (trillion cubic feet)
Reserves
Cumulative Consumption,
World Natural Gas Reserves =
6,186 Trillion Cubic Feet
World Cumulative Consumption, =
3,759 Trillion Cubic Feet 19
International Energy Outlook 2007 and Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

20. World Coal Consumption, 2004-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
International Energy Outlook 2007

21. World Electric Power Generation, 1980-2030 (trillion kilowatthours)
History
Projections
Non-OECD
OECD 21
International Energy Outlook 2007

22. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030 (trillion kilowattours)22
International Energy Outlook 2007

23. World Renewable Energy Use, 2004-2030 (quadrillion Btu)23
International Energy Outlook 2007

24. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region (billion metric tons)24
International Energy Outlook 2007

25. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons)
History
Projections
Total
43%
Coal
40%
36%
Liquids
39%
Natural Gas
21%
20% 25
International Energy Outlook 2007

26. Key Uncertainties in the Projections
Macroeconomic growth
Energy prices
Technological changes
Government policy initiatives 26

27. World Gross Domestic Product in Three Cases (trillion 2000 U. S
World Gross Domestic Product in Three Cases (trillion 2000 U.S. dollars)
History
Projections
High Economic Growth Case
Reference Case
Low Economic Growth Case 27
International Energy Outlook 2007

28. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
History
Projections
High Economic Growth Case
Low Economic Growth Case
Reference Case 28
International Energy Outlook 2007

29. World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel)
$100
History
Projections
High Price
Reference
$59
Low Price
$36 29
International Energy Outlook 2007

30. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 2030 (quadrillion Btu)
International Energy Outlook 2007

31. U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption, 2005-2030 (million barrels per day)
27.0
24.0
22.9
22.0
21.6
20.8
21.0
Electric Power
Industrial
Residential and
Commercial
Transportation
2010
2020
2030 31
Annual Energy Outlook 2007 and Preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2008

32. Examples of Special Analyses
Periodic Reports
Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008
International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next issue May 2008
Examples of Special Analyses
“Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007
Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,
March 2004
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003
“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Guy Caruso 32