Making Way for Public Rapid Transit in South Asia and its Impact on Energy and Environment Bangalore, Dhaka and Colombo Ranjan Kumar Bose & Sharad Gokhale The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi Presented at the BAQ 2004 in the Sub-workshop Session No December 2003 (16:15-18:00 hrs) Jaypee Palace Hotel, Agra

Scope Develop a common analytical framework to analyze urban transport energy demand and emissions of local pollutants and CO 2 and evaluate alternative policies Establishing a database for three South Asian cities – Bangalore, Dhaka, Colombo Establishing a baseline and validation of results Analyzing the impact of an increased public rapid transit (PRT), mainly BRT on energy demand and emissions Suggest policies directed towards effectively increasing share of PRT in Asian cities

The transport model – using LEAP software Passenger kilometre Freight kilometre Different Modes: Technology/ fuel Vehicle space per passenger or tonne Fuel efficiency NO x HC CO PM SectorSub-sectorEnd-useDevice Energy Intensity Emission Factor Personal modes IPT modes Public modes Goods Pkm & Tkm % 1/occupancy GJ/km gm/l or m 3 AS IF CO2

Establish a data base at city/regional level Socio-economic –City map with rail-road network –Population –GDP –Area Vehicles by different categories –Number of motor vehicles on road –Average occupancy or load –Average effective distance travelled daily Public rapid transit –Volume of travel catered by PRT using road & rail in kms (length) –Volume of travel catered by PRT using road & rail in trips (volume) Fuel use pattern and consumption –Petrol, diesel, CNG, LPG sales data in the transport sector –Fuel efficiency of different category of vehicles –Fuel quality and the road map for cleaner vehicles and fuels Emission factors –Average mass emission factors (gm/km) of different vehicles Air quality –Ambient concentrations monitored in traffic intersections

ColomboDhakaBangalore Bangalore (2000) Area = 531 km 2 Population = 5.7 m Vehicles = 1.5 m Motorized travel demand Passenger = 38 bpkm Freight = 3.3 btkm Dhaka (2000) Area = 1353 km 2 Population = 9.9 m Vehicles = 0.2 m Motorized travel demand Passenger = 3.5 bpkm Freight = 1.8 btkm Colombo (2000) Area = 676 km 2 Population = 5.0 m Vehicles = 0.7 m Motorized travel demand Passenger = 30 bpkm Freight = 9 btkm

Growth of motor vehicles  2-wh  3-wh  Car  Taxi

Growth of motor vehicles  Bus  Truck

Baseline (BAU) scenario The following factors have changed during the period 1990 to 2000 and would change as per current trends in future ( ) –growth of motor vehicles –penetration of improved technologies conforming to progressively stringent emission standards (Euro norms) –penetration of cleaner fuels –Improvement in fuel efficiency –Progressively stringent mass emission factors of CO, HC, PM, NO x and CO 2 But, the following factors would remain same from 1990 to 2010 but will vary across different modes –occupancy/load factor of each vehicle –effective distance moved by each vehicle

Alternative (ALT) scenario Earlier start dates for...  higher share of efficient public transport system and increasing ridership with consequent drop in use of personalized modes  penetration of new vehicles conforming to stringent Euro emission norms  use of cleaner and alternative fuels  penetration of advanced technological options, which are fuel efficient

Total fuel demand BAU ALT

CO 2 emissions BAU ALT

Emissions loading CO and HC BAU ALT Bangalore Dhaka Colombo Emissions loading

NOx and PM Bangalore Dhaka Colombo BAU ALT

Comparative analysis (2020) IndicatorsBangaloreDhakaColombo Bus share in BAU53%21%63% Bus share in ALT80%79%82% Reduction potential Energy15%9%4% CO55%18%14% THC78%33% NOx-4%-3% PM27%4%3% CO210%8%4%

Constraints and data limitations Absence of a well defined city boundary/limit Inadequate data on number of motor vehicles registered in Colombo and Dhaka and their use – conclusions are derived from mainly country level information Large variation in emission factors between countries due to difference in Fuel quality Automobile technology Fleet composition and age distribution Absence of database on mass emission factors of different category of vehicles in Colombo and Dhaka Limited availability of qualified staff Limited availability of test facilities with state-of-the-art technologies

Make public transport more attractive  Augment capacity  Improve access - set standards for accessibility  Reduce travel time - bus priority at intersections and dedicated lanes  Improve reliability - set standards for deviation from schedules/missed trips  Scientific design of schedules to improve utilization  Improve inter-modal integration and integration with personal transport - Park & Ride, Common ticketing, Common passenger information system  Premium services - Cost Vs Quality issues Policy issues Make use of personal vehicles difficult  Limit parking space  High parking fee  Restrict use of personal vehicles in selected areas - ban or area licensing  Encourage transportation allowance instead of free parking  Park and ride facilities from less crowded areas

Thank you!