1. Energy Demand Analysis and Energy Saving Potentials in the Greek Road Transport Sector Dr. Spyros J. Kiartzis Director Alternative Energy Sources & New technologies Christos Bitos, MSc International Hellenic University 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Athens, 9 October 2014

2. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 2 Looking ahead Decarbonizing transport is one of today's major challenges for the automotive industry Transport is closely linked with economic activity For 2020-2040, it is not yet clear what type of cars will be used but it is likely that improved conventional cars will still dominate the market Several alternative fuel/technology options are currently explored, such as compressed natural gas and hybrid vehicles, fuel cells and hydrogen Transport activity will continue to increase in the future as economic growth fuels transport demand and the availability of transport drives development Freight transport has been growing even more rapidly than passenger transport and is expected to continue to do so in the future

3. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 3 No single technology or alternative fuel can solve the problems of growing transportation Biofuels have the potential to replace a substantial part but not all petroleum used by transport Ethanol and biodiesel can offer immediate benefits since compatible with existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure Methanol (in the form of low-level blends with gasoline) and FT liquids are compatible with existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure DME is able to use existing LPG infrastructure Hydrogen fueled Fuel Cell Vehicles will play a major role as a part of the change towards a hydrogen based energy system Advanced technology vehicles, including hydrogen fuel cell or battery electric vehicles, will continue to suffer from high cost and other limitations

4. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 4 The Greek road transport sector 5,216,873 cars and 1,026,362 light and heavy duty trucks, in 2010 New vehicle sales: 141,501 cars and 11,938 trucks Average car ownership in Greece 461 cars per 1000 inhabitants in 2010, (lower than Europe's average - 477 cars per 1000 inhabitants) Sector stayed stagnated, because of the economic recession Fuels considered as potential alternative in the near future: Electricity, Hydrogen, Methanol, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Emission factors obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is included in LEAP’s Technology Environmental Database

5. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 5 Scenario Analysis Energy consumption growth in transport slows to 1.1% p.a. between 2012 and 2035 (from 1.9% p.a. 1990-2012) primarily due to accelerating gains in fuel economy Transport activity is expected to grow over the next decades For the period 2010-2035, end year sales are assumed to grow by 0.8% and 1.3% for cars and trucks respectively, fuel economy is assumed to improve about 10% following efficiency trends and mileage is assumed to stay constant for technologies already existing and increase for technologies that will be introduced in the near future The Business As Usual (BAU) forecast illustrates what state energy use will look like in the absence of additional policies beyond what is already planned

6. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 6 Greece BAU scenario

7. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 7 BAU and alternative scenarios for cars

8. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 8 Energy Demand of Vehicles Distributed in Different Technologies (BAU) Vehicles increase from 6.2 million in 2010 to 6.9 million in 2035 Total energy demand increases from 246.4 million GJ (5.9 Mtoe) to 259 million GJ in 2035 (6.2 Mtoe), or -0.1% annually Trucks have the highest energy demand, with about 53% share

9. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 9 Total Energy Demand of Vehicles (all scenarios)

10. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 10 Environmental Effects (all scenarios)

11. 7 th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014 11 Conclusions The future energy demand in the Greek road transport sector up to 2035 was analyzed using the LEAP model for different scenarios The number of vehicles increases to approximately 6.9 million vehicles in 2035, accounting for 0.5% average annual growth rate Five alternative scenarios to BAU are introduced, presenting an increased penetration of alternative technologies in new cars sales (biofuels, gas engine vehicles, fuel cells vehicles, electric vehicles, and hybrid vehicles) Fuel economy improvement combined with the electric vehicle scenario would be interesting strategies to reduce the total energy demand Increase in energy demand and pollutant emissions can be limited through measures (e.g. alternative technologies and fuels, improvements on vehicles efficiencies, taxation schemes for renewables promotion)