Guillaume Duteurtre (Cirad Vietnam) “Animal Productions. Food and feed future demand, consequences on land uses and food security” Agrimonde-Terra Workshop Paris, February 13th, 2013 Recent Trends in Dairy Production in Vietnam and their Consequences on Land Use Guillaume Duteurtre (Cirad Vietnam)

Main livestock production in Vietnam (in 1000 tonnes) 1. The “livestock revolution” in Vietnam Main livestock production in Vietnam (in 1000 tonnes) Source : Hoang Kim Giao, 2012

Production and importation of animal feed in Vietnam (in 1000 tonnes) 1. The “livestock revolution” in Vietnam Production and importation of animal feed in Vietnam (in 1000 tonnes) Source : Hoang Kim Giao, 2012

Production of milk in Vietnam (in tonnes) 2. History of the milk “success story” Production of milk in Vietnam (in tonnes) Source : FAOSTAT

2. History of the milk “success story”

2. History of the milk “success story” (data Year 2009) Population 87 millions Consumption per capita 12 kg EL Number of farms 20.000 Number of cows/farms 7 Total number of milking cows 135 000 Share of nat. prod. in total consumption 23 %

Factors related to market and consumption 2. History of the milk “success story” Factors related to market and consumption Milk consumption (kg/capita.an) countries 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007 France 219,5 235,2 281,6 287,2 272,9 260,5 China 2,5 2,3 3,2 6,5 11,1 28,7 Thailand 2,4 7,3 9,3 15,0 20,2 22,5 Viet Nam 1,9 4,3 1,1 2,1 11,2 11,9 Source : FAOSTAT, 2011 Supply of milk products - except butter

2. History of the milk “success story” Factors related to policies and institutions Collectivist period (1954-1986) The “đỏi mới” and family farms (1986-2012) The “industrial trend” (2008-??)

Factors related to policies and institutions 3. Recent trends Factors related to policies and institutions Dairy Development Plan (1998-2000) Based on small-holder farms With a lot of support from the Government (credit, services, AI, …) Decision 10/2008 of the Government of Vietnam (2008-…) “Livestock Development Strategy to 2020” Priority to “quantitative development” (productivist approach) Objective : to feed the markets and to reduce import New investments of private firms National International

3. Recent trends and consequences on land use The « TH Milk company » 2010 : set up (350 millions US$) Sept. 2012 : 30,000 cows … 2017 : 137,000 cows ? 1 500 Ha of land allocated

Planted Area in Son La Province (North Vietnam) 3. Recent trends and consequences on land use Planted Area in Son La Province (North Vietnam) (x 1,000 ha) (source : DARD Son La)

Production and importation of animal feed in Vietnam (in 1000 tonnes) 3. Recent trends and consequences on land use Production and importation of animal feed in Vietnam (in 1000 tonnes) Source : Hoang Kim Giao, 2012

3. Recent trends and consequences on land use Transition in livestock farms Rice cultivation Forages + Feed cultivation Elephant grass + Maize (Cassava) Transition in territories Food cultivation Feed cultivation Forest Land Feed cultivation Maize + Cassava Land re-allocations to industrial projects (CF TH milk) Transition in the use of important feed-stuffs in the use of imported feed stuffs Mainly soybean meals (66%), + other meals and oilcakes, starch… (Mainly from Argentina, India, US)