1. 1 Global livestock markets: outlook, policies, and future challenges Nancy Morgan, Livestock Economist FAO/World Bank

2. 2 The Livestock Revolution revisited: World Meat Production and Trade Production Driven by Gains in Poultry/Pork Sectors With Trade Growing Faster than Production Animal disease

3. Global meat consumption gains more than doubles since the early 1980s (129=>285 mmt). Of the more than 150 mmt increase, Asian increases account for 100 mmt. African consumption increases less than 10 million tons with per capita consumption rising from 13 kg-22 kg/caputa The regional diversity of gains in meat consumption, 1982-2008 Million metric tons

4. 4 Growth in Dairy Sectors in Developing Countries Continues Unabated Over the past twenty-five years developing countries contributed nearly three- quarters of global consumption gains for both meat and dairy.....80% of production gains came from smallholders 2017

5. What about the evolution in meat trading patterns? Million metric tons NET MEAT TRADE STATUS, 2008 Key Importing Regions: Asia: 40% imports Europe: 22% imports N. America: 10% Key Exporting Regions: N. America: 30% Latin America: 30% Europe: 13% Oceania: 12%

6. Key Indicators which reveal opportunities for import substitution, etc. Key Indicators Imports: % Consumption Exports: % Production Volume (Value ) of Imports Developing10612 Developed711 Europe955.2 ($14 billion) North America5172.4 ($6.7 billion) Latin America8162.6 ($4 billion) Asia9210.6 ($16.3 billion) Africa1311.7 (1.7 billion) WORLD8823.2 ($43 billion) Key opportunities are domestically driven

7. 7 Potential in terms of consumption growth, How much do we eat? Per capita meat and dairy product consumption in developing countries, despite rapid gains, remains about one-third the levels of developed countries. Large opportunities for consumption gains in livestock products in developing countries

8. 8....but livestock products remain the fastest growing commodity THE CRYSTAL BALL: Consumption gains to slow over the next decade….

9. Of key concern, however, is uncertainty about commodity price levels and price volatility!!!! Implications for livestock sectors: Focus on developing strong and competitive local markets. Considerable investments to be made in research and development, with a focus on alternative feeds. Governments should allocate money in an efficient way, looking at effective provision of services (veterinary/ extension) Donor funds should leverage this investment, not substitute for it!!!

10. Challenges to the Sector Structure of modern food sector quickly evolving –Longer livestock value chains –Mounting pressure on resource availabilities, including water, grazing land Juxaposed by farming systems which in many cases are still at the preliminary stage of development Increasing complex and competitive environment Lack of financing and strategic thinking by policy makers leads to livestock development that can be unsustainable and detrimental to rural economic development

11. 11 Donor support to agriculture % rural poverty % ODA to Ag Challenges to the Livestock Sector

12. 12 Current World Bank Livestock Portfolio 7 Livestock-only and 58 livestock component projects US 1.9 billion 65 % in Africa and East Asia Performance rating at par with other sectors

13. Lifting livestock’s long shadow From degradation to carbon sequestration From pollution to biogas and clean water From desertification to sustainable management

14. The Global Zoonotic Disease Challenge - beyond Avian Influenza

15. 15 Certainly the high and pervasive costs of animal disease are fostering concerns about animal industries $3.8 $2.3 $6.6 $.08 $9.2 $.433 $.015 1/ Indirect costs not available. BSE CFS FMD $.500 AI

16. 16 PLATFORMS FOR INVESTMENT IN LIVESTOCK FOOD CHAINS Ensuring sustainable systems to support livestock development (with a particular emphasis on mitigating environment impact) Facilitating safe marketing and cross border trade in animal products Safety of livestock food chains

17. LOTS OF KNOWLEDGE

18. Understanding how to support livestock sectors: Markets, budgets and investments DEMAND, BUDGETS, ENABLING ENVIRONMENTS LIVESTOCK INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

19. 75% of the world’s poor are rural and most are involved in livestock rearing or trading. Development of the sector remains fundamental for poverty reduction, economic growth and environmental sustainability The Challenge--- supporting sector development through effective strategy development, policy implementation, and investment.