1. Trend of Rice Consumption in Japan Kobe University Kako, Toshiyuki

2. Three Phases of Rice Economy ① Rice shortage phase （ 1945 ～ 67 ） ② Rice surplus phase （ 1968 ～ ） ③ Rice trade liberalization phase （ 1995 ～ ）

4. Year19601970198019902000 Proportion of rice planted area in total planted area 40.746.341.738.838.9 Proportion of rice output in total agricultural output 47.437.930.027.825.5 Proportion of rice revenue in total agricultural revenue of farm household 49.938.029.128.627.5 Proportion of calorie supply from rice in total daily per capita calorie supply 48.336.730.125.923.8 Proportion of expenditures on rice in household food expenditures Proportion of expenditures on rice in household consumption expenditures 23.612.98.76.54.5 10.34.32.51.61.1 Position of Rice in Japanese Agriculture

7. Factors influencing rice consumption level Consumer rice prices Consumption expenditure Change in dietary habits: westernization Aging of population Decline of family size Increasing participation rate of women in labor market Declining share of farm households

15. Ｓｈａｒｅ ｏｆ Ｃａｌｏｒｉｅ Ｓ ｕｐｐｌｙ ％

16. Estimation result of per capita rice demand function (1980 － 2001 年） Ln C = 4.600 - 0.200Lny + 0.557Lnn R 2 =0.964 (10.385)(-3.950) (3.854) c : per capita rice consumption y ： Per capita private final consumption expenditure n : Number of person per household

17. Projection of Rice Demand Assumptions on the rate of change of exogenous variables (Data: 1996-2001) 1. Per capita private final consumption expenditure: 0.4% 2. Number of person per household: － 0.8% Lny = 5.411 + 0.004t R2=0.60 (994.975)(2.927) Lnn = 1.219 - 0.0076t R2=0.907 (288.105)(-7.048)

19. Projection results of table rice demand in 2010 and desirable figures described in the Basic Plan of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Desirable figures described in Basic Plan of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Projection result Total Domestic supply (brown rice) 9.06 million t8.46 million t Annual per capita rice supply (milled rice) 66.0 kg60.2 kg