Is Lithium the New Oil? The Future of Electric Cars John Hiam. Hatch

Why Electric Cars  Global Warming - CO2 from car exhausts – 20% of US GHG  Cars Pollute - Not just CO2 - Smog - Carcinogens  Oil Supply and Price - Cheap Supply will decline (“Peak Oil”) - Price will rise  Oil Demand Increasing - Especially from Developing Countries

Why Electric Cars (cont) No Oil Needed Less Pollution Less To No Greenhouse Gases (CO2)

Solution Options  Improvements to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)  “Clean” Diesels  Hybrids  Plug in Hybrids  Pure Electric Vehicles  Fuel Cells

Solution Options  Improvements to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)  “Clean” Diesels  Hybrids  Plug in Hybrids  Pure Electric Vehicles  Fuel Cells

Improved ICE and Diesels  Fuel Management (Direct Injection etc.)  Improved Combustion  Cylinder Deactivation  Better Transmissions  Alternative Fuels (Bio Fuel, Ethanol etc)  Low Sulphur Fuel  Particle Traps  Urea Injection  Reduced Vehicle Weight BUT STILL NEED OIL & STILL EMIT CO2

Toyota Prius

Key Hybrid Features  Part Electric Motor (EM) Part Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)  Electricity for EM from Rechargeable Battery  Batteries Recharged by Recovering Kinetic Energy, ICE &Plugging in

Battery Choices Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH) + Relatively Cheap + Very Reliable + Safe Lithium Ion (Li-Ion) Times Efficiency of NiMH + Expensive + Possible Safety Issue (Need Cooling?)

Li-Ion Battery Cell Carbon AnodeLiMnOxide Cathode Electrolyte (Li Salt) Charger/Motor Li+ Charge LITHIUM ION CELL Discharge

Hybrid Types Mild - ICE assisted by Electric Motor (EM)  Full - Either ICE or EM drives the car  Plug in Hybrid - Full Hybrid that can be plugged in  Chevrolet Volt

Chevrolet Volt 12

Chevrolet Volt “Extended Range EV” EM Drives the Car (Most of the Time) Large Li-Ion Battery Battery Recharged by ICE, Plugging In and Regenerative Braking

Hybrid Fuel Consumption & Costs Mild - Small Reduction in Fuel Consumption - Small Purchase Cost Penalty  Full - Significant Fuel Consumption Reduction (30%) - Higher Purchase Cost (+10% to +20%)  Volt and PHEV - Big Reduction in Fuel Consumption (for trips less than 60km) - Very High Cost (+100% for Volt) – big battery & complex engineering

Tesla 15

Nissan Leaf 16

Pure Electric Vehicles Electric Motor & Rechargeable Battery (NiMH or Li Ion) Battery Charged by Plugging in No Pollutants or GHG emitted by Car Pollutants etc emitted by Power Supply - Coal – CO2, particulates etc. - Natural Gas – CO2 - Hydro, Wind & Solar – none - Nuclear – Waste

Electric Vehicle GHG Emissions If coal for electricity – 458 Kg CO2/gigajoule If Natural Gas – 214 Kg CO2/gigajoule Regular ICE – 541 Kg/gigajoule Diesel – 429 Kg/gigajoule

Electric Car Concerns/Advantages Limited Range : 50 km – 200 km Frequent Recharging Needed - Need many charging locations Charging takes many hours – 24 volts, volts, volts Batteries very expensive - $10,000 plus

Electric Car Concerns/Advantages Reliability & Safety Unproven Excellent Performance (Acceleration etc) Very Low Maintenance Costs Very Low Running Costs

Hydrogen Car 21

Fuel Cells  Fuel is Hydrogen  Cell Uses Catalyst to Convert Hydrogen to Electrons and Hydrogen Ions  Electrons (Electricity) Power the Electric Motor  Electrons and Ions React with Air (Oxygen) Producing Water

Fuel Cell Characteristics Only emit Water Vapour Same Range as ICE Rapid Refuelling (Similar to ICE) Poor at Low Temperatures (Below Zero Celsius) Toyota Says Problem Solved

Fuel Cell Characteristics Unproven Technology Cells Very Expensive Cell Durability Questions No Hydrogen Distribution Infrastructure Inferior Energy Balance (Need Energy to Make Hydrogen)

Fuel Economy (Km/US Gal) HEVPHEV (up to 57 Km) PHEV (over 57 Km) ICE Overall City Highway

Fuelling Costs($/Km)

Vehicle Costs in USD (Small Car) Purchase Cost Fuel/Year 24300Km Repair Maintain per year 10 Year Cost Nissan Leaf $32,780$400$250$39,280 Toyota Corolla $17,500$1,900$500$41,500 Penalty+$15,280-$1,500-$250-$2,220

Vehicle Costs in USD (Large Car) Purchase Cost Fuel/Year 24300Km Repair & Maintain per Year 10 Year Cost Toyota Camry HEV $26,675$1,676$500$48,435 Toyota Camry $22,325$$2,192$500$49,245 Penalty+$4,350-$516$0-$810

Possible Future Scenario Near Future (5 years) - Improved ICE and Diesels - Hybrids - Plug in Hybrids - EVs for Cities & Short Commutes Mid Term (5 – 10 years) - As for 5 years - EVs with Extended Range Long Term (10 + years) - As for 10 years - Fuel Cell Powered?

Li-ion Battery Market Size 30

Developments Needed Resolve Safety Issue Reduce Costs of Power Pack (Batteries) Improve Capacity, Recharging Time and Range - Carbon Nano Tubes for Anodes? - Silicon Anodes? - Improved Li Cathodes - Improved Electrolytes - Many Other Ideas Being Investigated

Developments Needed (cont) Recharging Infrastructure - Home Charging (Higher Voltages – 440V) - Public Charging Points (Higher Voltages) - “Intelligent” Grid & Chargers - Long Term – Supply Grid Upgrade

Developments Needed (cont) Possible Rapid Battery Exchange System Battery Recycling Environmentally Friendly Power Generation Early Year Subsidies

Conclusions Internal Combustion Engines Will Continue To Be Produced For Many Years Market for All Hybrid Types Will Grow Pure EVs Limited to Short Distances Till Limitations Resolved Li Ion Batteries Best Option Currently Available Li Is Not The “New Oil” It is a Promising Energy Source “Green” Power Generation Optimises EV Benefits

Conclusions (cont) Growth Rate Depends On: - Improved Li-Ion Batteries - Lower Cost Batteries -Recharging Infrastructure - Price & Availability of Oil -Government Fuel Economy & Emissions Mandates - Fuel Cells Threat?