Identifying opportunities for the Natural Capital Project to engage in New England

1.The project 2.What is NatCap? 3.Examples of our partnerships 4.Ideas for how we could engage in New England

1. The Project Apply NatCap’s InVEST ecosystem services assessment tool in New England or the Mid-Atlantic from March 2012-May 2013 Webinar goals - scope opportunities for engagement by: 1.Identifying what ocean use/CMSP decisions you see on the table and on the horizon 2.Specify what ocean use/CMSP work you would like to accomplish in the next year 3.Based on 1 and 2, discuss how NatCap can be most useful

1.The project 2.What is NatCap? 3.Examples of our partnerships 4.Ideas for how we could engage in New England

The Natural Capital Project Help people understand what we get from nature Use that understanding to inform decisions

Scientific basis, policy & finance mechanisms lacking for integrating natural capital into natural resource decisions

Hydrology Economics Policy GIS analysis Computer science Ecology Marine biology Coastal engineering Fisheries Oceanography Hydrology Economics Policy GIS analysis Computer science Ecology Marine biology Coastal engineering Fisheries Oceanography

Free and open-source. Available at: The InVEST tool Applicable anywhere Flexible (data, scale) Scenario-based analysis Biophysical and economic currencies Multiple ecosystem services

Renewable energy (wave and offshore wind) Fisheries Coastal protection Aquaculture Recreation Aesthetic quality Carbon storage and sequestration Habitat risk assessment Water quality

Harvested Biomass Landed Biomass Visitation Rates Avoided Area Flooded/Erode d Energy Captured Recreation Fishery Aquaculture Coastal Protection Wave Energy ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Marine InVEST Models Input Data (reflect scenarios) Habitat type Species distribution Bathymetry & Topography S OCIO -E CONOMIC VALUATION Aesthetic Quality Carbon Carbon Sequestered Oceanography Value of carbon sequestered Value of captured wave energy Expenditures due to recreation activity Net present value of finfish and shellfish Value of avoided damages Habitat Risk Water Quality Population density Property values Aquaculture operation costs B IO -P HYSICAL Demographics T ERRESTRIAL S YSTEMS e.g.

Harvested Biomass Landed Biomass Visitation Rates Avoided Area Flooded/Erode d Energy Captured Recreation Fishery Aquaculture Coastal Protection Wave Energy ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Marine InVEST Models Input Data (reflect scenarios) Habitat type Species distribution Bathymetry & Topography S OCIO -E CONOMIC VALUATION Aesthetic Quality Carbon Carbon Sequestered Oceanography Value of carbon sequestered Value of captured wave energy Expenditures due to recreation activity Net present value of finfish and shellfish Value of avoided damages Habitat Risk Water Quality Population density Property values Aquaculture operation costs B IO -P HYSICAL Demographics T ERRESTRIAL S YSTEMS e.g.

Harvested Biomass Landed Biomass Visitation Rates Avoided Area Flooded/Eroded Energy Captured Recreation Fishery Aquaculture Coastal Protection Wave Energy ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Marine InVEST Models Input Data (reflect scenarios) Habitat type Species distribution Bathymetry & Topography S OCIO -E CONOMIC VALUATION Aesthetic Quality Carbon Carbon Sequestered Oceanography Value of carbon sequestered Value of captured wave energy Expenditures due to recreation activity Net present value of finfish and shellfish Value of avoided damages Habitat Risk Water Quality Population density Property values Aquaculture operation costs B IO -P HYSICAL Demographics T ERRESTRIAL S YSTEMS e.g.

Harvested Biomass Landed Biomass Visitation Rates Avoided Area Flooded/Eroded Energy Captured Recreation Fishery Aquaculture Coastal Protection Wave Energy ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Marine InVEST Models Input Data (reflect scenarios) Habitat type Species distribution Bathymetry & Topography S OCIO -E CONOMIC VALUATION Aesthetic Quality Carbon Carbon Sequestered Oceanography Value of carbon sequestered Value of captured wave energy Expenditures due to recreation activity Net present value of finfish and shellfish Value of avoided damages Habitat Risk Water Quality Population density Property values Aquaculture operation costs B IO -P HYSICAL Demographics T ERRESTRIAL S YSTEMS e.g.

1.The project 2.What is NatCap? 3.Examples of our partnerships 4.Ideas for how we could engage in New England

GENERAL STRUCTURE FOR THE WCVI AND BELIZE EXAMPLES: 1.Say what partners were doing (generating marine spatial plans) 2.Say how InVEST was used (weigh pros and cons of the alternative spatial plans) 3.Show what we produced for them – maps! REST OF THE SLIDES IN THE WCVI AND BELIZE SECTIONS ARE MATERIAL THAT I’LL PULL TO MAKE A COUPLE OF SLIDES (~5-10 FOR EACH SITE).

West Coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

West Coast Aquatic Management Board [Federal, Provincial, First Nation, and local governments] Create a marine spatial plan that balances interests of multiple stakeholders Recreation (whale watching, fishing, surfing, kayaking) Tourism Aquaculture (Atlantic salmon, shellfish) Wave energy generation Shoreline protection Capture fisheries (salmon, halibut, groundfish) Traditional seafood harvest Healthy habitats

West Coast Aquatic’s planning process Yrs 1-2: a)Extensive stakeholder interviews: what are local visions and values? Where do people use the marine space? b) Identify objectives Yrs 2-3: a) Identify vulnerabilities and suitabilities b) Develop draft zones and identify potential conflicts c) Use InVEST to learn about costs and benefits of alternative plans Yrs 3-4: a) Present zoning options to stakeholders b) Re-iterate zoning if necessary c) Present plan to governing authorities

Simple science has big impacts Aquaculture suitabilityVulnerability to erosion and flooding

Drawing lines on a map is difficult Draft human use zones

Issues of concern: -Effects of forestry and other industrial activities on aesthetic views -Effects of shellfish harvest and aquaculture on sensitive habitats Sample scenario

TimberViewsModels improve decision making: Identify win- wins

Vulnerability to erosion and flooding Population centers Models improve decision making: Identify unexpected consequences and trade-offs

Move shellfish tenures away from population centers Restore eelgrass in high risk, high benefit locations Space matters: reduce incompatibilities by shifting activities in space

CMSP is about many decisions of all shapes and sizes. We need to be flexible. District of Tofino: Which areas are most vulnerable to flooding? Setback distances for new development. Where to site wave energy facilities? NPV ($ mil) Large scale Small scale

Where to site wave energy facilities? NPV ($ mil) It’s not all about dollars. Biophysical outputs can be enough. ($ mil) Quality of views

Add maps from WEM and Fisheries manuscript

A. BaselineB. ConservationC. Industry Expansion Float Homes Eelgrass Recreational Kayaking Increased Kayaking Shellfish Aquaculture Geoduck Harvest Crab Harvest Guerry et al IJBSESM, in press

A. BaselineB. ConservationC. Industry Expansion Low High Ecosystem Risk

High Water Quality Low Water Quality g/m 3 of fecal coliform bacteria A. BaselineB. ConservationC. Industry Expansion

Belize

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials

Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Coastal zone management plan for Belize Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism)

Zones (CURRENT USES) Marine Transportation Tourism/Recreation Biodiversity Critical Habitats Shoals Fishing Coastal & Marine Managed Areas Special Development Areas Cultural & Historical Areas Human Settlements Coastal Development

The CAC Consultation Process

Usage of CAC Input Development of Scenarios Ideal Scenario Unregulated Scenario VS.

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED DEVELOPMENT Protected Areas High impact Low impact Draft

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED HABITAT HIG H RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Draft

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities

InputsOutputs Fishing zone Where do people catch lobster? Habitat Where? How much? Fishing pressure How much do people fish? Catch of spiny lobster (no./m 2 /yr) Market value of catch ($/m 2 /yr) Value of habitats that support lobster What areas are most important for catch of spiny lobster? Where should mangroves and corals be protected in order to maintain lobster catch? What areas are most important for catch of spiny lobster? Where should mangroves and corals be protected in order to maintain lobster catch? Marine InVEST Lobster fishery model

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED 1816 lbs1343 lbs1722 lbs Coral Seagrass Mangrove (Areas in km 2 ) LOBSTER CATCH & HABITAT AREA Draft

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities

Site characteristics bathymetry, topography Biotic features kelp, seagrass, coral, mangrove Outputs Erosion and flood control (area of land protected) Coastal protection Social data land tenure, population levels, home values Avoided damage costs to property ($) Storm characteristics wind, waves, sea level Inputs Will restoration or protection of critical habitats provide cost effective protection from flooding and erosion? # of people protected Relative exposure

Erosion for Current & Future Unchecked Development

Changes in wave height due to SLR, habitat change, and hurricane cat 4 Managed future Unchecked development

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities

Inputs Demographics population Attractors cultural, natural Outputs % of visitors to different locations Tourism/recreation Superstructure roads, hotels Expenditures by visitors What areas are most visited by tourists and how would visitation be affected by conservation or development?

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED D RECREATION/ TOURISM % Visitation Draft

Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services Current zones of use Managed development/ protection Unchecked development High impact dev0.22 km km Low impact dev0.08 km14.21 km0 km Habitat area587 km565 km493 km Lobster catch lbs lbs lbs Coastal protection Tourism/recreation

Economic effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services Current zones of use Managed development/ protection Unchecked development High impact dev$$$ Low impact dev$$$ Habitat area Lobster catch $$$ Coastal protection$/# people Tourism/recreation$$$

High impact dev Low impact dev Habitat area Lobster catch Coastal protection Recreation/tourism Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services ManagedUnchecked Yes No Yes

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED DEVELOPMENT Protected Areas High impact Low impact Draft

DRAFT Erosion for Current & Future (Unchecked) Development Erosion Averages Current = 1.58m Future (Unchecked) = 89.17m CURRENT UNCHECKED (in meters) Category 4 Storm 3m 180m

High impact dev Low impact dev Habitat area Lobster catch Coastal protection Recreation/tourism Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services ManagedUnchecked Yes No Yes

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass Coastal protection Fisheries Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials

Scenarios: Storylines that describe possible futures Examples 1) Current 2) Managed Development 3) Unchecked Development (BAU)

The CAC Consultation Process

Usage of CAC Input Development of Scenarios Ideal Scenario Unregulated Scenario VS.

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED DEVELOPMENT Protected Areas HIGH impact LOW impact DRAFT

CURRENTMANAGED HABITAT UNCHECKED DRAFT

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED 1816 lbs1343 lbs1722 lbs Coral Seagrass Mangrove (Areas in km 2 ) LOBSTER CATCH & HABITAT AREA DRAFT

Erosion for Current & Future (Unchecked) Development Erosion Averages Current = 1.58m Future (Unchecked) = 89.17m CURRENT UNCHECKED (in meters) Category 4 Storm 3m 180m

Effect of Alternative Zoning Schemes on Uses and Services current zones of use managed development/ protection unchecked development high impact development 0.22 km km low impact development 0.08 km14.21 km0.00 km habitat area587 km565 km493 km lobster catch lbs lbs lbs coastal protection tourism/recreation16,037 visitor days 16,298 visitor days 22,976 visitor days DRAFT

current zones of use managed development/ protection unchecked development high impact development $$$ low impact development $$$ habitat areakm 2 lobster catch $$$ coastal protection$/ # people tourism/recreation$$$ Economic Effect of Alternative Zoning Schemes on Uses and Services DRAFT

habitat area lobster catch coastal protection recreation/tourism low Impact development high impact development Effect of Alternative Zoning Schemes on Uses and Services Managed Unchecked DRAFT

Coastal zone management questions (examples) What areas are most important for catch of spiny lobster? Where should mangroves and corals be protected in order to maintain lobster catch?

What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?

What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?

Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km 2 ) What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?

Valuation? Gross export revenue Net revenue – we need better information on fishing and processing costs NPV – need net revenue Do we want to value lobster exported, sold locally, together, separately?

What habitat areas are important for catch of spiny lobster? Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km 2 )

Loss of habitats decreases catch Current habitat50% reduction in habitat per planning region

Identify Objectives Develop Scenarios Compile Data Run InVEST (create maps in supply, ecosystem service, and/or value metrics) Synthesize Results (e.g. identify trade-offs/win-wins) Stakeholder Engagement How do our engagements generally work?

1.The project 2.What is NatCap? 3.Examples of our partnerships 4.Ideas for how we could engage in New England

We have flexibility and can do multiple scales – just need to scope how much each application entails; this is what we’ve done in Monterey Bay We realize there’s been a ton done here already (Mass Ocean Partnership; RI SAMP; offshore wind; application of MIMES) and would like to complement that work, not be redundant.

At the large scale (RPB- scale): Maps. Existing services, vulnerabilities: – Renewable energy (offshore wind) – Fisheries – Coastal protection – Aquaculture – Recreation – Aesthetic quality – Carbon storage and sequestration – Habitat risk assessment – Water quality Climate scenario from NOAA?

At the smaller scale: Likely something involving wind and fisheries – Application related to Dept. of Interior’s Smart from the Start Initiative (mandate to get wind energy going on the E. Coast) – Potential site: New Bedford scallop grounds and wind energy siting

Discussion: 1.What ocean use/CMSP decisions do you see on the table and on the horizon? 2.What ocean use/CMSP work you would like to accomplish in the next year? 3.How NatCap can be most useful?