1. Theory and Hands On: Habitat Risk Assessment Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Gregg Verutes

2. Goals for this session Gain an understanding of science behind the model Understand the data you need to run the model and practice running it yourself Share examples of how the model can be used to meet management and conservation goals

3. Habitats

4. Habitats provide services Habitat for fisheriesRecreational opportunitiesStorm protection

5. Halpern et al 2008 Risk to habitat structure and function

6. Scenarios Services Habitat Risk

7. Questions the model can answer Which habitats are most at risk and where? What types of management options may be useful for reducing risk? Where may human activities create trade-offs among environmental services by posing risk high enough to compromise habitat structure and function?

8. Final output  habitat risk  ecosystem risk

9. Cumulative impact mapping (Halpern et al 2008) InVEST Habitat Quality model Risk assessment literature Related models and approaches  Human health, safety engineering, oil, military, aerospace  Fisheries science HIGH RISK Consequence Exposure

10. What do we mean by risk? Where is the ice in relation to my car and me? Has the ground been sanded? Is the ice just thin and patchy or more dangerous? Should I walk over the ice to my car? If I fall, how bad will my injury be? Am I young and resilient or old? Will I break an arm or leg? Am I wearing high heels or snow boots? ExposureConsequence

11. Criteria Exposure Spatial overlap Temporal overlap Intensity Management effectiveness Consequence Change in area Change in structure Frequency of natural disturbance Natural mortality Recruitment Age at maturity/ recovery time Connectivity Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. 2007

12. Criteria Ratings Exposure Spatial overlap Temporal overlap Intensity Management effectiveness Consequence Change in area Change in structure Frequency of natural disturbance Natural mortality Recruitment Age at maturity/ recovery time Connectivity Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. XXX Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al 2007

13. Criteria Ratings Exposure Spatial overlap Temporal overlap Intensity Management effectiveness Consequence Change in area Change in structure Frequency of natural disturbance Natural mortality Recruitment Age at maturity/ recovery time Connectivity 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 1 2 Weighted average  data quality  importance Weighted average  data quality  importance 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 1 2

14. Calculate risk

15. Outputs – Risk maps Where is risk highest?  cumulative habitat risk  ecosystem risk

16. RISK TO SEAGRASS Outputs - Risk hotspots Where may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future? RISK TO CORALS RISK TO MANGROVES Habitat Risk Assessment HighLowMedium

17. Outputs – Risk plots Strategies for reducing risk EXPOSURE (exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc) Consequence (endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc) HIGH RISK LOW RISK Intensive intervention: if this area overlaps with high benefits, then limit damaging uses and restore here Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc. Low intensity intervention Develop uses here

18. Applications Belize – coastal zone management plan WCVI – site activities, trade-offs among services

19. Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning plans current uses future uses stakeholder engagement reports HIGH RISK Consequence EXPOSURE Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials

20. Habitat Risk Assessment HighLowMedium RISK TO SEAGRASS High Risk Area (km 2 ) 6.4456.10 98.70 Outputs - Risk hotspots Where may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future?

21. Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting service Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Coastal Vulnerability Coastal Protection Overlap Analysis Renewable Energy Habitat Risk Assessment; Biodiversity Reservoir Hydropower Production Sediment Retention Managed Timber Production Crop Pollination Water Purification Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Marine model: Tier 0 Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service InVEST Models & Linkages Aesthetic Quality Recreation Carbon Storage & Sequestration Carbon Storage & Sequestration (Blue Carbon) Agricultural Production Flood Risk Mitigation Groundwater Recharge Fisheries (including recreational) Aquaculture Marine Water Quality Optional model linkage, no sequencing Required/optional model linkage, sequencing needed Model coming soon!

22. What types of decisions could the HRA model inform? Decision ContextGeography Marine Spatial PlanningWCVI Coastal Zone ManagementBelize Identification of indicators for ecosystem-based management Puget Sound Climate adaptation (ecosystem-based adaptation) Monterey Bay

23. Data requirements Shapefiles for all habitats Shapefiles for all stressors Criteria rating table

24. Break for hands-on session

25. Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats) You have a risk map! Now what?

26. Which stressors pose the greatest risk? Where are the risk hotspots? Where will there be trade-offs among activities? 1.2.3.

27. Which stressors pose the greatest risk? Where are the risk hotspots? Where will there be trade-offs among activities? 1.2.3.

28. 28 Forestry Recreation and tourism Shellfish harvest Eelgrass restoration New resort New clearcuts New shellfish tenures Eelgrass restoration Sketch out possible futures

29. Shellfish harvest, tourism Habitat extent Effects on other services that depend on healthy habitats?

30. Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats) Trade-offs among services

31. 31 Population centers Macoah Identify unexpected consequences and trade-offs

32. Now you know where the risk hotspots are, and which stressors are driving them…how can you prioritize your management?

33. EXPOSURE (exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc) CONSEQUENCE (endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc) LOW RISK Develop uses here Intensive intervention: limit damaging uses and restore here, esp. if overlap with important benefits Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc. Low intensity intervention

34. Move shellfish tenures away from population centers Restore eelgrass in high risk, high benefit locations Space matters: reduce incompatibilities by shifting activities in space

37. Back to the big picture

39. InVEST HRA can: 1.Screen the risk of current and future stressors. 1.Prioritize management where it’s most needed and effective. 1.Identify trade-offs among ecosystem services. Take-away messages

40. Float homes and shellfish tenures in Lemmens Inlet

41. Risk to ecosystems from float homes and oyster farms

42. Future directions Ability to modify criteria Functionality to calculate habitat connectivity Spatial variation in criteria – esp. intensity, management effectiveness Expand sample data Other ideas?

43. Acknowledgements Marine Team Greg Guannel, Anne Guerry, Mary Ruckelshaus, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Spencer Wood