1. Nature’s Shield, Nature’s Gifts How Protecting Coastal Habitats Protect and Enrich Us

2. Take-home messages: 1.Coastal habitats provide protection against coastal hazards + provide additional benefits to people 2.We have developed useful approaches & tools for assessing protective nature of coastal habitats & their provisioning of other benefits

3. Crowded beach pic

9. Harvested Biomass Landed Biomass Visitation Rates Avoided Area Flooded/Erod ed Energy Captured Recreation Fishery Aquaculture Coastal Protection Wave Energy ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Marine InVEST Models Input Data (reflect scenarios) Habitat type Species distribution Bathymetry & Topography S OCIO -E CONOMIC VALUATION Aesthetic Quality Carbon Carbon Sequestered Oceanography 2 6 1 8 9 3 7 4 5 Value of carbon sequestered Value of captured wave energy Expenditures due to recreation activity Net present value of finfish and shellfish Value of avoided damages Habitat Risk Water Quality Population density Property values Aquaculture operation costs B IO -P HYSICAL Demographics T ERRESTRIAL S YSTEMS e.g.

10. Coastal Protection (A two-tiered approach)

11. vulnerability

12. USGS Inspired by USGS approach:  more general  includes impacts of coastal habitats  includes human vulnerability

13. Inputs Site characteristics bathymetry, topography Biotic features kelp, seagrass, coral, mangrove Outputs coastal vulnerability tier 0 Storm characteristics wind, waves Social data land tenure, population levels, home values Summary of biophysical vulnerability # people vulnerable (Values of property at risk) (Infrastructure at risk)

14. Vulnerability of population

15. Vegetation Agriculture Urban Sanitation Drainage Vulnerability of What?

16. Where do habitats reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities to SLR and storm scenarios? Scenarios 2 habitat – adapt, don’t adapt 2 SLR – historical trend, 2 m total rise (A2, B1 next round) Storm intensity – historical trend in increased wave height (next round) Socio-economic outputs # of people, # below poverty line, # older than 65 value of vulnerable properties key infrastructure (next round) National Climate Assessment

17. protection

18. Inputs Site characteristics bathymetry, topography Biotic features kelp, seagrass, coral, mangrove Outputs Avoided area eroded coastal protection tier 1 # people affected Social data land tenure, population levels, home values (Avoided property damage) Storm characteristics wind, waves (Avoided infrastructure damage)

19. Coastal protection Waves Baseline tide Long-term sea-level rise Currents Wind Forcing Conditions

20. Coastal protection Waves Baseline tide Long-term sea-level rise Currents Wind Attenuation Forcing Conditions Biogenic habitat Abiotic morphology ‘Hard’ structures

21. Coastal protection Waves Baseline tide Long-term sea-level rise Currents Wind Attenuation Forcing Conditions Biogenic habitat Abiotic morphology ‘Hard’ structures Hydrodynamic Output Wave height Mean water level Runup Storm surge

22. Coastal protection Waves Baseline tide Long-term sea-level rise Currents Wind Attenuation Forcing Conditions Biogenic habitat Abiotic morphology ‘Hard’ structures Erosion Flooding Near property and people Hydrodynamic Output Wave height Mean water level Runup Storm surge

23. Run Wave Model Offshore Beach Erosion Difference: 1.5m 15 hrs Storm H max =1.5m T=4s

24.  Avoided re-nourishment cost  Avoided property damages  Avoided people displaced NOT TO SCALE coastal protection tier 1 >> valuation

25. Eroded area (m 2 ) Loss of property value ($M) Number of people affected Storm Intensity Arkema et al in prep

26. Gulf of Mexico Restoration: Doing more with restoration dollars  TNC: restoring oyster reefs throughout the Gulf  If designed properly, oyster reefs:  reduce erosion  promote shoreline accretion  provide habitat for important species  improve water quality  InVEST model outputs are helping TNC make smart decisions about the placement and structure of reefs to reduce wave heights by 60-70%. Some Design Considerations Long breakwaters promote tombolos: L s >890m Small gaps promote tombolos: L g <0.8L s Small gaps generate stronger currents: L g >L w ~47m Worse case scenario: Emergent structure close to WL

27. Model Results

28. Ecosystem-based adaptation in Galveston Bay impacts on ES delivery now and under future climate? impacts on natural systems? strengths/weaknesses for protection and adaptation to climate change? Credible analyses of net benefits of alternative adaptation investments within context of real adaptation decisions

30. CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED DEVELOPMENT Protected Areas High impact Low impact Draft

31. CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED HABITAT HIG H RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Draft

32. DRAFT Erosion for Current & Future (Unchecked) Development Erosion Averages Current = 1.58m Future (Unchecked) = 89.17m CURRENT UNCHECKED 0 - 26 26 - 66 66 - 79 79 - 94 94 - 180 (in meters) Category 4 Storm 3m 180m

33. CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED 1816 lbs1343 lbs1722 lbs 65 112 410 9449 6064408385 Coral Seagrass Mangrove (Areas in km 2 ) LOBSTER CATCH & HABITAT AREA Draft

34. CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED D RECREATION/ TOURISM % Visitation Draft Default Inputs population land vs sea protected areas natural features superstructure industrial features LULC/bottom-type User-provided Inputs Gridded area-of- interest Other layers

35. Model validation: real vs crowd-sourced data

36. Take-home messages: 1.Coastal habitats provide protection against coastal hazards + provide additional benefits 2.We’ve got useful approaches & tools for assessing protective nature of coastal habitats & their provisioning of other benefits

37. Anne Guerry Mary Ruckelshaus CK Kim Mike Papenfus Greg Verutes Jodie Toft Katie Arkema Greg Guannel Joey Bernhardt Jess Silver Spencer Wood Martin Lacayo-Emery anne.guerry@stanford.edu

39. Weiss et al 2011

41. Curtis and Schneider 2011

42. Default Inputs population land vs sea protected areas natural features superstructure industrial features LULC/bottom-type User-provided Inputs Gridded area-of-interest Other layers Recreation Tier 1